1. “Born to fail-the perfect storm”
“David’s Story”
“Born to fail-the perfect storm”
John Carnochan QPM
Detective Chief Superintendent
Violence Reduction Unit
GOOD AFTERNOON
IT MIGHT SEEM STRANGE FOR THE POLICE TO BE TALKING ABOUT PUBLIC HEALTH…
I’M GOING TOO SHOW A PIECE OF CCTV WHICH WILL EVIDENCE WHAT HAPPENS BEFORE SOME OF YOUR PATIENTS ARRIVE AT YOUR DOOR.
I HOPE WILL DEMONSTRATE WHY WE IN SCOTLAND ARE TRYING TO THINK ABOUT THE GENERATIONAL CHANGE THAT WE NEED.

2. “Truth springs from argument amongst friends”
David Hume

3. Improving Scottish Education HMIE 2006
“However, we must also recognise that many of the factors associated with poor performance lie outside the centre, school or college attended. The need for establishments and teachers to work effectively with parents and carers and with all those services which support young people and their families remains vital. Traditions, structures and even values present real challenges to joint working…..”
Improving Scottish Education HMIE 2006

4. The “How” Identify risk / protective factors
Research why it occurs
Surveillance
Systematic data collection
Develop and evaluate interventions
Find out what works.
Implement
Scale up and evaluate effective programmes

5. Understand Causes of Violence
Two components to Violence:
The propensity to be violent - personal factors
The triggers of violence - social factors The Wave Report “Violence and what to do about it”

6. What do Employers Want?
Percentage of Employers reporting an employee skill gap.
Future Skills Bar Chart. See Future Skills Scotland Website, Employer Survey 2004, p27, fig 15.

7. Rates of Return to Human Capital
Higher Education
Secondary
This is where we currently invest our public funds – the evidence is overwhelming that there is a better way to invest. It is more effective and it is more economic.
We need to help support parents do a very difficult job. It’s not about bad parents or poor parents. It is difficult in ideal circumstances and it becomes even more difficult when circumstances are not supportive. A violent or aggressive and bullying partner will inhibit Mum’s ability as a parent, alcohol, drugs, isolation, all make being a parent very difficult. They need support.
Primary
Preschool

8. Economics
“A major determinant of successful schools is successful families. Schools work with what parents bring them. They operate more effectively if parents reinforce them by encouraging and motivating children”
Professor James Heckman
Chicago University

9. Public Health Model Lack of communication skills
Relationship
Societal
Community
Individual
Lack of communication skills
Poor behavioural control
Impulsiveness
Aggressive behaviour
Lack of skills to deal with conflict
Lack of “life” skills
Exclusion from Services/Schools
Nutrition Diet Health
Alcohol
Lack of employment opportunities
Parenting
Lack of knowledge
Friends that engage in violence
Prevalence of gang culture
Violent families – siblings/parents
Lack of significant adults/positive role model
Lack of punishment for pre cursor offences – knife carrying
Lack of visible swift justice
Links to deprivation
Scottishness
Cultural norms
Legitimisation of violence
Access to and use of alcohol
Lack of aspiration
Dependancy

10. Glasgow East Population 60,000+ 27% residents are under the age of 20
Education
49% above the national average for adults without qualifications
14% below the Nat Ave for 5+ GCSE equivalents (s4)

11. Glasgow East Employment Workless households 122% above Nat Ave
Number of income deprived people 114% above Nat Ave
Child and Mental Health
Low birth weight babies 62% above the Nat Ave
Teenage pregnancy (under 18) 42% above the Nat Ave

12. Glasgow East Life Expectancy Males 68.1, females 76
Males life expectancy drops as low as 61.9

13. Glasgow East Crime Serious Violent Crime 170% above Nat Ave
Domestic Abuse 54% above the Nat Ave
Vandalism 22% above Nat Ave
Drug Offenders 39% above Nat Ave

14. Glasgow East Gangs 55 known gangs
Approx 630 known gang members aged between 9 - early 20s
White young men aged between 9-20s (peak membership 14-18)
Highly Territorialised – obsessed with respect
Resistant to change

15. Thoughts It has to be about: WHAT is right not WHO is right
WHAT is important not WHO is important
The SHARED AGENDA