1. IRRIIS Reference Scenarios Workshop 1.4 Rome 8 th of February 2007 Walter Schmitz

2. IRRIIS 1.Objectives of “Scenario Analysis3 2.Critical Infrastructures today5 3.Importance of Scenarios10 4.Scenario Approach15 5.Results: Scenario Interpretation34 Agenda Page

3. IRRIIS WP1.2 Objectives WP1.2 objectives are: to identify future scenarios which will serve as key environments for threat-, risk-, and assessment of MIT solutions and LCCI countermeasures to gather information concerning LCCIs confronted with such scenarios to develop an advanced methodology for the vulnerability assessment and contingency planning. WP1.2: Scenario and Risk Analysis

4. IRRIIS 1.Objectives of “Scenario Analysis3 2.Critical Infrastructures today5 3.Importance of Scenarios10 4.Scenario Approach15 5.Results: Scenario Interpretation34 Agenda Page

5. IRRIIS Critical Infrastructures are highly netted, most of them globally e.g. energy transport telecommunications banking and finance The Nature of Critical Infrastructures Critical Infrastructures are vital backbones of modern societies

6. IRRIIS Critical Infrastructures are increasingly depending on IT-and communication networks. Critical Infrastructures are becoming preferred targets of future threats. User Databank Filter Threats are becoming more and more asymmetric, cyber threats are becoming reality. Role of ICT

7. IRRIIS Fault-tolerance and self-healing should be important design criteria of complex systems such as CI Natural disasters Man made disasters Terror attacks Complexity of systems due to IT-penetration Cause and effect in complex systems are hardly distinguishable Critical Infrastructures: Threats

8. IRRIIS CI Situation Economic and societal relevance of CI dependability Insufficient understanding of ICT-related dependencies, services New market developments New technologies Emerging threats and vulnerabilities Reverse trends: Redundancy => increasing costs => decreasing shareholder value Privatisation => shareholder value oriented =>reduction of costs New business models are needed => PPP => information sharing Development and usage of novel technologies Validation by using novel scenarios

9. IRRIIS 1.Objectives of “Scenario Analysis3 2.Critical Infrastructures today5 3.Importance of Scenarios10 4.Scenario Approach15 5.Results: Scenario Interpretation34 Agenda Page

10. IRRIIS Scenario: Problems & Obstacles Nobody knows the future Two extreme behaviours of planners: (1) asserted certainty with extrapolation of the traditional planning (2) total uncertainty without any indication for the future Three Obstacles have to be overcome: (1) Imagination that we deal with an exactly predictable future (2) The hard rule of cause and effect in highly complex world (3) Sole focusing on the current success that can be a future flop Three groups of opponents (1) Traditional planners and controllers: “only one future!” (2) Wrights: networked thinking is an intellectual baublery (3) Successful colleagues point to their impressive balance sheet

11. IRRIIS Future Oriented Organisations … should not neglect (1) Thinking and acting open for each possible future (2) Networked thinking and acting (3) Strategic thinking and acting Scenario means alternative descriptions of future complex systems like CIs. The integration of such scenarios into the process of the strategic management leads to “Scenario Management”.

12. IRRIIS Scenario Management Scenario management applies alternative scenarios in order to identify and tap new success factors to detect and process weak signals earlier than competitors. But how to detect and process them in a goal-oriented way in order to enable the organisation to react quickly and adequately?

13. IRRIIS Future oriented organisations need a strategic early detection capability: (1) Scanning of the whole environment (2) Examination of identified signals (3) Observation of crisis indicators / critical factors (4) Scenarios as a grouping of trend projections Advantages: (1) More time for decision making (2) The integration of the detected signals into the decision process enlarges the scope of design and control Early Detection

14. IRRIIS 1.Objectives of “Scenario Analysis3 2.Critical Infrastructures today5 3.Importance of Scenarios10 4.Scenario Approach15 5.Results: Scenario Interpretation34 Agenda Page

15. IRRIIS Step 1Step 2Step 3Step 4 Impact Analysis Scenario Interpretation Failure Analysis Step 8Step 6Step 5Step 7 Scenario- Transfer Scenario Approach Problem Analysis Influence Analysis Scenario Projection Grouping of Alternatives

16. IRRIIS Step 1: Problem Analysis (1) Several drivers aggravate the CIP problem: 1)interlinked aspects of market forces 2)technological evolution, and 3)emerging risk factors. w.r.t. 1) Globalisation of information services will lead to increasing connectivity and ill-understood behaviour of systems and vulnerabilities. w.r.t. 2) Security has not been a design driver, pressure to reduce time to market w.r.t. 3) Increasingly large parts of CIs will be under control of private sector and will be trans-national.

17. IRRIIS At least 4 different CIP / CIIP perspectives: 1)Technical perspective 2)Business perspective 3)Law enforcement perspective 4)National security perspective Step1: Problem Analysis (2)

18. IRRIIS (1)Technical perspective: IRRIIS develops technologies to foster information exchange between the different infrastructures to enhance substantially their dependability. (2)Management perspective: CIIP/CIP is seen as a “service continuity” problem including technical, organisational and human factors. (3)Dependency perspective: Vulnerabilities induced by dependence on other infrastructures are the focus of IRRIIS. IRRIIS Perspectives

19. IRRIIS Elem 1 Elem n Elem 2 Intra- dependencies Elem 1 Elem n Elem 2 Intra- dependencies Interdependencies PoliticsTechnology EconomySociety Ecology Global Environment Elem 1 Elem n Elem 2 Intra- dependencies Specific Environment IRRIIS Research Area ElectricityInternet Telecom. Step 2: Influence Areas

20. IRRIIS Description of Key Factors (1) Descriptor: D2.3 Short Name: Distributed Generation (DG) and Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Detailed Description: Some generators like RES are not controlled by system operators. Generation level of these sources is seldom being planned ahead and is often difficult to pre- dict. Poorly predictable and non-controllable generation requires more control and reserves, which will increase the price of electric power. ICT dependency and costs are limiting factor for improving predictability and controllability. Actual Status 2006: RES and DG are aiming at reduction of carbon emissions. The amount of this energy is sensitive in the market and requires increasing regulation and reserves. In some areas further increase is not possible without either higher costs or worse- ning supply reliability. Interfacing, protection, automation and controllability of DG, RES, and DSO network.

21. IRRIIS Uncertainty-Impact-Analysis selects the relevant influence factors in consideration of the following questions: How important is the influence factor for the problem to be solved? How uncertain is the future status of the influence factor from the current point of view? very important less important highly certain highly uncertain Follow-on analysis should be focused on factors which are assessed as very important and highly uncertain! Uncertainty-Impact-Analysis

22. IRRIIS D1.1 - Liberalisation of trade D1.2- Privatisation D1.3 - Competition D1.4 - Transnat. character of CIs D1.5 - Security requirements D1.6 - Offshore reliance D2.1 - Globalisation D2.2 - Market dynamics D2.3 - Outsourcing D2.4 - Appropriate security management procedures D2.5 - ICT-costs D2.6 - Business models D2.7 - Flexible organisation of LCCI providers D2.8 - Demand for LCCI-services 4.11 - Interfaces D3.1 - Conflicting interests of CI stakeholders D3.2 - Public awareness regarding CI vulnerabilities D3.3 - Corporate culture D3.4 - Leadership style D3.5 - Skills of personnel D3.6 - White-collar crime D4.1- Complexity D4.2 - Mutual depen-dence of CIs D4.3 - Intelligent and sophisticated networking D4.4 D4.5 D4.6 - Internet as carrier D4.7 - Wireless communication D4.8 - Synchronous and asynchronous communication D4.9 - ICT equipment of LCCI providers D4.10 - IT-security highly uncertain highly certain less important very important

23. IRRIIS Analysis of the complexity of the system with the aid of the Cross-Impact-Matrix (CI-Matrix: Driver-Driven-Analyse) Which descriptors do strongly influence the system? Which descriptors are influenced by which? Presentation of the results as follows: I Passive Elements II Critical Elements III Buffering Elements IV Active Elements Passive- Values Active- Values Influence-Analysis

25. IRRIIS

26. IRRIIS: Selected Key Factors D1.1 Liberalisation of CI markets D1.2 Reliance on energy sources outside EU D1.3 Protection of environment and energy saving D1.4 Security management D2.1 Business models D2.2 Energy market dynamics D2.3 Distributed generation and renewable energy sources D3.1 Skills of personnel D4.1 Complexity and dependences D4.2 Internet-based and converging networks D4.3 Information security of ICT Politics Economy Society Technology

27. IRRIIS 1.Identify the cross-linked scenario parameters 2. Select the most relevant influence parameters;... todayPrognosis Horizon time... describe several development lines for the selected parameters and assign reasons for these lines... Scenario-FieldScenario-Projection Scenario-Building... and combine them to consistent scenarios time todayPrognosis Horizon Step 3: Trend Projection

28. IRRIIS Description of Key Factors (2) Descriptor: D2.3 Short Name: Distributed Generation (DG) and Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Projection A (2015): Continuous growing of DG and RES Rationale: Communication infrastructure will develop services that improve highly distributed remote automation and reliable but inexpensive data communication. Projection B (2015): Penetration of DG and RES will stop increasing Rationale: Penetration of DG and RES will be delayed due to (1)high price of electric power produced by DG and RES (2)costs caused by the electric power infrastructure (3)cost of reliable communication to distributed sites (4)complex protection systems and non-harmonised requirements

29. IRRIIS 1.Identify the cross-linked scenario parameters 2. Select the most relevant influence parameters;... todayPrognosis Horizon time... describe several development lines for the selected parameters and assign reasons for these lines... Scenario-FieldScenario-Projection Scenario-Building... and combine them to consistent scenarios time todayPrognosis Horizon Step 4: Grouping of Alternatives

30. IRRIIS Pairwise comparison of the scenario trends Questions:„Are there relationships between A and B?“ „If yes, how consistent is the relationship between A1 and B1 etc.?“ Consistency Scale: 2A1 is strongly consistent with B1 0no influence -2A1 is absolutely inconsis- tent with B2 AB A1A2B1B2 A1 A2 B1 B2 A B --2-2 -- 0 2 --0 0 0 2 -- Consistency-Analysis

31. IRRIIS Grouping of Alternatives

32. IRRIIS Concentration and private networks D1.2BWeak reliance D1.3BDiminished protection D1.4BDiminished security mgmt D2.2BInternal energy markets D2.3BDecreasing DG and RES penetration D4.1BIsolated solutions and increased complexity D4.3BWeakened IT-security Selection of 2 Extreme Scenarios Liberalisation of CI-markets (politics) lowhigh Sophisticated Internet-based networks high low Internet-driven open market D1.2AStrong reliance on energy resources outside EU D1.3AAdvanced protection of the environment and energy saving D1.4ADeveloped security management D2.2ACompetitive open energy markets D2.3AGrowing DG and RES D3.1AAdvanced skills of personnel D4.1AHolistic solutions and reduced complexity D4.3AStrengthened IT-security

33. IRRIIS 1.Objectives of “Scenario Analysis3 2.Critical Infrastructures today5 3.Importance of Scenarios10 4.Scenario Approach15 5.Results: Scenario Interpretation34 Agenda Page

34. IRRIIS S 1: Internet-driven open Market

35. IRRIIS S 2: Concentration and Private Networks

36. IRRIIS Decrease of well-founded definitions / empirical insights in models Human preference towards certainty and definition Modelling: Explicit Knowledge & representation of the reality in detail; Incremental refining of the models due to improved knowledge of the context Simulation: Integration of hypotheses / limited uncertainty into models Scenarios / Gaming: only implicit knowledge concerning topics to be analysed - Gain of insights; general understanding to be established increasing uncertainty / decreasing knowledge Increasing certainty and knowledge improve definitions / empirically based values, and vice versa increasing uncertainty Scenario Refinements