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Latin American Business Outlook Part of the Global Business Outlook A joint survey effort between Duke University, Fundação Getúlio Vargas and CFO magazine.

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Presentation on theme: "Latin American Business Outlook Part of the Global Business Outlook A joint survey effort between Duke University, Fundação Getúlio Vargas and CFO magazine."— Presentation transcript:

1 Latin American Business Outlook Part of the Global Business Outlook A joint survey effort between Duke University, Fundação Getúlio Vargas and CFO magazine Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 1

2 Top Internal Concerns for Latin American CFOs Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 2 1.Ability to maintain margins 2.Attracting and retaining qualified employees 3.Maintaining morale/productivity 4.Ability to forecast results 5.Working capital management 6.Managing IT systems 7.Supply chain risk 8.Counterparty risk 9.Data security 10.Cost of health care 11.Balance sheet weakness

3 Top External Concerns for Latin American CFOs Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 3 1.Federal government policies 2.Consumer demand 3.Corporate tax rates 4.Currency risk 5.Price pressure from competitors 6.Global financial instability 7.Credit markets/interest rates 8.Inflation 9.Federal budget deficit 10.Cost of fuel 11.Foreign competition

4 Forecast of % change over next 12 months Historical ResponsesMar 2014 Response Revenue Notes: Presented data are the mean value for each region or country. Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 4 Product Prices

5 Historical Responses Capital Spending Mar 2014 Response Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 5 Forecast of % change over next 12 months Notes: Presented data are the mean value for each region or country, except medians are shown for Latin American earnings in Mar 2013 and Mar 2014. Earnings

6 Historical Responses # FT Employees Wages & Salaries Mar 2014 Response Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 6 Forecast of % change over next 12 months Notes: Presented data are the mean value for each region or country, except medians shown for Latin America in Mar 2013. #FT=Number of Fulltime Employees

7 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 Business Optimism Index (Scale from 0 to 100) Historical Responses Country / Region Own Company Mar 2014 Response 7 Notes: Presented data are the mean value for each region or country

8 Mergers and Acquisitions Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 8

9 Where will your cross-border acquisitions occur? Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 9

10 Effects of Tighter FED Monetary Policy Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 10 What effect, if any, has the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank's plan to taper its quantitative easing program had on your company's optimism about its business prospects for 2014?

11 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 Uncertainty and Business Planning—Econ Conditions 11 Does Uncertainty about Economic Conditions Affect Your Business Planning?

12 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 Uncertainty and Business Planning—Govt Policies 12 Does Uncertainty about Government Economic Policies Affect Your Business Planning?

13 Corporate Culture Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 13

14 Changes to Corporate Culture Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 14 First Priority for Improvement in Latin American Corporate Culture:

15 Real Estate Bubbles Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 15 Do you think that there is a real estate bubble in your country?

16 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 Past and Expected Return on Assets (ROA) 16

17 Duke/FGV CFO Survey in Latin America Press Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 17

18 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 18 Duke/FGV CFO Survey in Latin America Press

19 Latin American Business Outlook Part of the Global Business Outlook A joint survey effort between Duke University, Fundação Getúlio Vargas and CFO magazine Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 19

20 Where will your cross-border acquisitions occur? Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 20 USEurope

21 Where will your cross-border acquisitions occur? Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 21 AsiaLatin America

22 FROM Dec 2013 22 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sep 2012

23 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 Past Economic Conditions For Company 23 Have the economic conditions for your company changed in 2013?

24 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 Expected Economic Conditions For Company 24 Do you expect the economic conditions for your company to change in 2014?

25 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 Corporate Budget for Charitable Donations 25 Does your company have a corporate budget for charitable donations?

26 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 Past and Expected Return on Assets (ROA) 26

27 FROM Sep 2013 27 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sep 2012

28 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 Effect of Increase in Interest Rate 28 If benchmark long-term interest rates increase 1%/2% by the end of 2013, how will this affect your plans for: Note: 26.3% of the Latin American CFOs expect the benchmark long-term interest rate to increase 1% by the end of 2013; 6.2% of the Latin American CFOs expect a 2% increase in benchmark long-term interest rate by the end of 2013. Financing Full-time Employee

29 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 Obtaining Long-term Credit in the Past 3 Years 29 During the past 3 years, has your company obtained any long-term credit?

30 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 Currency Denomination of Long-term Credit 30

31 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 Top Reasons to Shift Toward Temporary/Part-time Workers 31 % of CFOs who choose the reason as important (top3): Note: More than 50% of the CFOs answer that their companies shifted toward temporary/part-time workers during the past years.

32 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 Past and Expected Return on Assets (ROA) 32

33 FROM June 2013 33 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sep 2012

34 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 Intention to Deploy Cash Reserves 34 Is it likely that your firm will begin to deploy its cash reserves during the next 12 months?

35 If not deploying cash, why not? Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 35

36 If deploying, on what will accumulated cash reserves be deployed? Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 36

37 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 Corruption as a Risk Factor—Global Perspective 37 The magnitude of business corruption (fraud, bribery, other ethical violations) as a risk factor, comparison across continents.

38 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 Corruption as a Risk Factor—In Latin America 38 The magnitude of business corruption (fraud, bribery, other ethical violations) as a risk factor, comparison across countries in Latin America.

39 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 CSR and Sustainability as Important Objectives 39 The proportion of CFOs that state Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and Sustainability as important objectives.

40 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 Motivations to Engage in CSR and Sustainability 40 What are the reasons that your company engages in CSR and sustainability?

41 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 Scrutiny of Executive Pay 41 Has the level of executive pay at your firm recently come under scrutiny?

42 From Before June 2013 42 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sep 2012

43 Latin American Hiring Trends (Sep 2012) Within the past year, nearly ¾ of Latin American respondents experienced difficulty filling a job opening. Among this group, a variety of approaches were used to fill open positions. Difficulty filling an open position within the past year? If yes, would/did you do any of the following to attract qualified applicants? Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 43

44 Corruption as a Risk Factor (Sep 2012) The magnitude of business corruption (fraud, bribery, other ethical violations) as a risk factor varies across geography (1=corruption not a significant factor, 5=very significant factor) Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 44

45 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 45 Corruption Effects (Latin America, Sep 2012) To the extent that business corruption exists, what would you say are its major effects?

46 Would a change in interest rates affect business spending? Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 46 How much would borrowing costs have to decrease to cause you to increase business spending ？ How much would borrowing costs have to increase to cause you to decrease business spending ？ An interest rate decrease of Would increase spending in this percentage of firms: 0.5%0% 1%2.6% 2%15.6% 3%26% > 3%49.4% An interest rate increase of Would decrease spending in this percentage of firms: 0.5%2.7% 1%9.5% 2%21.7% 3%36.6% > 3%67.7%

47 Is the Judicial System a Significant Risk for Your Firm? Percentage of Respondents that say that the court system is a “significant” or “very significant” business risk Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 47 Percentage of Respondents that say that the court system is a “significant” or “very significant” business risk

48 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 48 Cost and Risks Related to the Judicial System Percentage of respondents that list a factor as being an “important or very important problem with the judicial system”

49 Decreased in last five years (A small number is good, big number is bad) Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 49

50 Bonus relative to last year Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 50

51 If Growth Slows in These Regions, Effect on US firms Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 51

52 Regional Latin American Effects Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 52

53 (EXPERIMENT) Forecast of % change over next 12 months Historical ResponsesMar 2014 Response Revenue Notes: Presented data are the mean value for each region or country Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 53 Product Prices

54 Forecast of % change over next 12 months Historical ResponsesMar 2014 Response Revenue Notes: Presented data are the mean value for each region or country Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 54 Product Prices

55 Historical Responses Capital Spending Mar 2014 Response Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 55 Forecast of % change over next 12 months Notes: Presented data are the mean value for each region or country, except medians are shown for Latin American earnings in Dec 2012 and Mar 2013. Earnings

56 Historical Responses # FT Employees Wages & Salaries Mar 2014 Response Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 56 Forecast of % change over next 12 months Notes: Presented data are the mean value for each region or country, except medians shown for Latin America in Dec 2012 and Mar 2013. #FT=Number of Fulltime Employees

57 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2014 Business Optimism Index (Scale from 0 to 100) Historical Responses Country / Region Own Company Mar 2014 Response 57 Notes: Presented data are the mean value for each region or country

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