1. Presentation on the Scottish economy

2.  Output (GDP) started to fall in second quarter 2008  Technical recession confirmed once output had fallen for 2 consecutive quarters  Now officially the longest recession in modern times – but growth will soon resume  Research shows that recessions resulting from financial crisis tend to be longer and deeper – 5 years before GDP & employment recover?

3.  Employment fell by 56,000 in the year to September ‘09  ILO unemployment rose by 67,000  Youth unemployment rose by 75% between Aug ‘07 and Aug ‘09  Repeating the mistakes of the past?  This recession is different – impacts yet unclear

4.  6% fall in GDP  Manufacturing badly hit – 13% fall in output;  Export-orientated sectors worst affected – 25% decline in chemicals; electronics, transport equipment & mechanical engineering between 10-20%;  Construction, financial services & real estate/business services – all associated with property/finance roots of recession

7. PACE National Redundancy Initiative - Improved Website and Helpline 0808 100 1855 - 240+ Companies, 14,400 individuals assisted - ESF Approvals and increased staffing Revised ILA Offer support for Individuals earning up to £22k Redundant Apprentice Interventions - Clearing House system to support displaced Apprentices - Adopt an Apprentice - £2k recruitment incentive - Safeguard an Apprentice, sector focus £75 per week Increased Customer Demand - Visits to Centres up 10% - Call Centre Activity up 40%

8. 7,800+ New Apprenticeships, representing an 80% increase in new starts Introduction of New Level 2 MA’s e.g. Civil engineering Innovate with an Apprentice 2 for 1 Offer and new Life Science MA Framework Invest in an Apprentice to stimulate 1 st time recruitment in SMEs Supporting Job Growth, integrated support Packages Pilot of Business Improvement Techniques VQ

9. Towards Growth Need to keep services Agile and Responsive to Labour Market demands and opportunities Improved Transition Programmes for “Mature” Employees Co-Creation of Services with: - Business - Industry Advisory Boards - Scottish Funding Council - Trade Unions - Individuals Smarter systems to Inform service development Build capacity and deliver on Skills Utilisation

11.  The ‘Credit Crunch’- Sept ’07- end of housing and credit bubbles  2008 commodities bubble – rising oil and food prices  The financial crisis following the collapse of Lehman Bros Investment Bank in Sept 2008  Sudden and massive collapse in global demand  First truly global recession

12.  Bankers, other financial intermediaries, regulators, central banks...  A failure of politics  A failure of ideas  Definitely not the workers – those who are now paying with their jobs

13.  Maintain government spending  Support those hardest hit by recession  Fix the financial system  Rebalance towards manufacturing  Redistribute wealth – rising inequality breeds economic instability  Greening the economy, creating sustainable jobs

14.  The deficit - why is it rising rapidly? Falling tax revenues, the upfront costs of the bank bailout, rising social spending and fiscal stimulus  The stock of debt – not high by historical or international standards  Does the government have to cut spending now or in the future?  Can the government raise more revenue?

15.  Campaign for action to keep people in jobs & to create new jobs  Action to maintain and indeed increase investment in skills  Facility time for trade union representatives  Maintaining enthusiasm for trade union learning!