1. www.strategie.gouv.fr PREMIER MINISTRE International Social Security Association World Social Security Forum (Moscow, Tuesday 11 September 2007) Demographic changes – Impact on the world of work Julien Damon Head of the Departement of Social Affairs Associate Professor - Sciences-Po (Paris)

2. www.strategie.gouv.fr PREMIER MINISTRE SUMMARY A world with a population… … still growing, notably in the less developped countries ; … ageing everywhere, especially in the developped countries, ; … in the course of feminization and urbanization. Consequently for the world of work : … more employment injuries and occupational diseases to come ; … financial and political trade-offs between social risks ; … new types of global inequality. Illustration : the Care Drain

3. www.strategie.gouv.fr PREMIER MINISTRE The world of work will be a world of Developing Countries Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision. World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050

4. www.strategie.gouv.fr PREMIER MINISTRE World Population Clock Natural Increase perWorld More Developed Countries Less Developed Countries Year80,794,2181,234,90779,559,311 Day221,3543,383217,971 Minute1542151 2005 Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.

5. www.strategie.gouv.fr PREMIER MINISTRE An ageing world

6. www.strategie.gouv.fr PREMIER MINISTRE The old Europe…

7. www.strategie.gouv.fr PREMIER MINISTRE … and the ageing old Europe

8. www.strategie.gouv.fr PREMIER MINISTRE Urban Population Percent Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004. Trends in Urbanization, by Region

9. www.strategie.gouv.fr PREMIER MINISTRE Urbanization : the 2007 tipping point

10. www.strategie.gouv.fr PREMIER MINISTRE More and more women in the labour force

11. www.strategie.gouv.fr PREMIER MINISTRE But still a very important glass ceiling…

12. www.strategie.gouv.fr PREMIER MINISTRE The global mamy boom

13. www.strategie.gouv.fr PREMIER MINISTRE A consequence of ageing : which equipments and which benefits to favour ? The case of France Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision, 2004.

14. www.strategie.gouv.fr PREMIER MINISTRE Association Between Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation Worldwide, female labor force participation tends to be higher in countries with lower fertility rates Female Labor Force Participation Rate 2004 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005; International Labor Organization, Yearbook of Labor Statistics 2006. Total Fertility Rate 2000-2004 Turkey Djibouti Philippines

15. www.strategie.gouv.fr PREMIER MINISTRE Association Between Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation But in the OECD countries fertility rates tend to be higher in countries with higher female labor force participation Source: OECD

16. www.strategie.gouv.fr PREMIER MINISTRE Employment Injury and Occupational Diseases 2005 Global Estimates ILO World Day for - Safety and Health at Work 2007 About 2.2 million people die every year from occupational accidents and disease 270 million workers suffer non fatal injuries 160 million workers suffer short or long-term illnesses from work-related causes Total cost = 4% of the world’s gross domestic product Yet most accidents are preventable

17. www.strategie.gouv.fr PREMIER MINISTRE Employment Injury and Occupational Diseases in France

18. www.strategie.gouv.fr PREMIER MINISTRE The new repartition of diseases

19. www.strategie.gouv.fr PREMIER MINISTRE After the brain drain, the coming care drain Labour force projection for developed countries with and without migration With migration Without migration 100 million

20. www.strategie.gouv.fr PREMIER MINISTRE And not to be forgotten… Population Living on Less Than US$2 per Day 2002 Percent Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2006.

21. www.strategie.gouv.fr PREMIER MINISTRE Thank you for your attention