1. New regionalism, cross-border regions and scenarios for the New Northern Europe Gleb Yarovoy ISSK 2010, May 12th

2. Content What is New Northern Europe? Methodology: Four scenarios for the NNE New regionalism as a context for region- building in the NNE Regional paradiplomacy as sources of regional actorness Cross-border regions and the future of cooperation in the New Northern Europe

3. New Northern Europe

4. Hedegaard & Lindström (1999, 2003) “The NEBI Yearbook 1998” The State as Main Actor Non-state Actors Integrating Interaction Fragmenting Interaction 1. Intergovernmental Co-operation 2. “Block-building” 4. Region-building / Post-national Structures 3. “Balkanisation” = High Politics = Low Politics

5. 1. Intergovernmental cooperation Traditional structures of integration: –Nordic Council 1952 –Nordic Council of Ministers 1971 New options after the Cold War –Nordic 5 + Baltic 3 (N5+B3) –Estonia as the 6 th Nordic country (or NB 8) –Council of the Baltic Sea States (CBSS) –Council of the Barents Euro-Arctic Region (CBEAR) –Arctic Council (AC)

6. 2. “Block-building” EU (DEN, FIN, SWE, B3) vs. non-EU (NOR, RUS) + ICE No “Nordic block” in the EU + EMU (only FIN) Finland – the best “pupil” in the EU “class” NATO (DEN, NOR, ICE, B3) vs. non-NATO (FIN, SWE, RUS) Baltic States = “one-issue-countries” (anti-RUS) Arctic (AC, BEAR) vs. Baltic (CBSS) AC: Common objectives and priorities for the Norwegian, Danish and Swedish chairmanships of the Arctic Council (2006-2012)

7. 3. “Balkanization” Regional disparities in many senses Economic and social development Different agendas of the northern (Arctic), southern (Baltic Sea) and eastern (EU- Russia) regions of the NNE. Civilizational EAST-WEST (Russia-EU) border (S.Huntington)

8. 4. Region-building / Post-National structures Globalisation / Glocalisation EUropeanisation of the NNE = Regionalisation on sub-national level = “North of the regions” Region-building on trans-national level = cross-border cooperation and CBRs Increasing role of non-state actors, e.g. indigenous people Eroding of the state sovereignty

9. So which scenario for the NNE? No answers, only tendencies, which could lead to different answers

10. Analysis 1: Identity + soft security Nordicity (is eroding?) vs. Europeanness (is strengthening?) is Opportunity for common NNE-identity? how? new patterns of interaction after the Cold War + their institutionalisation (CBSS, BEAR, ND…) = NNE’s soft security identity (Novack 2003)

11. Analysis 2: New regionalism(1) B.Hettne (2002) NR = context of globalisation + voluntary process from below + ‘open’ to world economy + non- state actors M.Keating (2003) NR = regional competition + trans-national context. Regions at the “global market”. P.Schmitt-Egner (2002) Post-modern regionalism + trans-national regionalism

12. Analysis 2. New regionalism(2) Definition: New mode of regional activity aimed at realization of internal regional programme in terms of economic development and strengthened regional competitiveness on global market by using the opportunities provided by globalization, European integration and cross-border (or inter- regional) cooperation. NR – global phenomenon, also in NNE

13. Analysis 3. Paradiplomacy (CBC) Soft security + new regionalism + cross-border cooperation = regional paradiplomacy The term “regional paradiplomacy” is relevant for different types of regions, and has three main dimensions: cross-border cooperation (R-R), transnationalisation (R- TNA) and internationalisation (R-FG/IO)

14. Marin A. (2001) The International Dimension of Regionalism: St. Petersburg’s “Para-diplomacy”. DiplomacyPara-diplomacy Actorness Binding frame System of relations Main concern Mental background Foreign policy concerns Protocol Administrative power Guidelines Goals Central/federal International Law State-centric Security State ideology (“Russian idea”) High politics, hard security issues Formal Bureaucratic, centralised Treaties, diplomatic “conceptions” Maximisation of power Regional/sub-governmental “Federal Pact” Multi-centric Economic wealth Local identity (“Petersburg idea”) Low politics, soft security issues Informal, pragmatic Neo-medieval, decentralised Agreements, Strategic Plan Autonomy

15. Analysis 4. Russia De-federalisation Elimination of regional heads’ elections Reform of the Council of Federation Unification of the regions In general: centralisation & state control Cross-border cooperation is the only rudiment of Russian regionalism CBC (paradiplomatic activity) is the main feature of regional actorness

16. Analysis 5. Regional actorness Regional actorness = 1) type of leadership + 2) structure of economy + 3) cross- border cooperation. CBC is a basic component for 1) and 2). Regional actorness as conditio sine qua non of engaging Russia/Russian regions into the process(es) of integration in the NNE. => CBC and regional paradiplomacy is this conditio sine qua non

17. CONCLUSION CBC is a shortest way to integration in NNE? Regional actorness, network of cross- border regions and paradiplomatic relations = ROAD MAP for regional integration scenario for the NNE Map of cross-border regions in the New Northern Europe = regional paradiplomacycross-border regions ISSK (etc.) is also paradiplomacy in action

19. Question Which scenario will be more relevant in the long-term perspective (2020-25) Pro- and anti- arguments? If not those “ideal types”, is(are) there other scenario(s)?