1. Performance of the “Three Reductions, Three Gains” Program in the Context of Sustainable Agricultural Development in Vietnam by Tran Che Linh Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand School of Environment, Resources and Development May, 2011 1 3Reductions 3Gains

2. Contents of Presentation 1/Statement problems 2/Objectives of the Study 3/Findings of the Study 4/Conclusion and Recommendations 2

3.  2001: Implementation  2004: A national agricultural program  Around 90% of farmers’ participatory. 3 but rice crop yield not increase Using quantity of chemical fertilizers further than paddy needs  rely on chemical fertilizers and plant protection chemicals  The increase of input costs, but rice crop yield not increase 3R 3G Statement problems Seed ratesfertilizer amount frequency of pesticide sprayed (while maintaining crop yield) “Three Reductions” (3R): Seed rates, fertilizer amount, and frequency of pesticide sprayed (while maintaining crop yield) et- farm profitfarmers’ health soil quality “Three Gains” (3R): Net- farm profit, farmers’ health and soil quality

4. Objectives of the study: Analysis of the performance of the 3R3G program 4 #1 find out changes #1 To find out changes in the use of seed, fertilizer, and pesticide after farmers’ participation in the “3R3G” Program #2 analyze factors influencing #2 To analyze factors influencing the use of seed, fertilizer, and pesticide #3 find out the effects of the “3R3G” program #3 To find out the effects of the “3R3G” program on net farm-income, farmers’ health and soil quality

5. Type of Research: To compare Evaluation type: To compare The changes (before and after), The difference (recommended and actual) To find out Explanatory type: To find out factors influencing Data Analysis 5 T-test: testing the different changes before and after The multiple regression analysis Converted into dummy variables. (r > 0.70) Multi-collinearity of independent variables found (with high collinearity (r > 0.70) excluded) Independent variables with low degree of correlation each other were included in model

6. Findings of the Study Three Reductions: Seed s, Fertilizers, and Pesticides 1/ Seed The change in the amount of seeds used 6 Farmer Type BeforeAfter Change % changes T-Test (B&A) Mean Std. Deviation Mean Std. Deviation Small (n=48) 22.73.114.21.3-8.5-37.5.000** Large (n=44) 22.63.213.51.4-9.1-40.2.000** Average22.653.1513.851.35-8.8-38.8.000** T-Value.2252.345 Sig..822.021 Source: Field Survey, 2010, Note: *Significant at 95% confident level; ** Significant at 99% confident level Farmer types: Small farmers : 2.5 hectares. Use of seed by type of farmers (kg/ 1000 m 2 )

7. Use of seeds as compared to the recommended amount 7 Farmer type Recommended amount Actual amountDifference (%) WS- season SA- season WS- season SA- season WS- season SA- season Small7 – 1010 - 12 13.814.638.021.6 Large7 – 1010 – 12 13.213.932.015.8 Source: Filed survey, 2010 Note: WS: Winter_Spring, SA: Summer_Autumn The difference was calculated based on upper limit of the recommended amount Findings of the Study (Cont…)

8. 14 Independent variables were initially selected 14 Independent variables 8 independent variables (X1, X2, X3, X4, X6, X9, X12 and X13) with high collinearity (r > 0.70) and insignificant with dependent variable were excluded. 6 independent variables (X5, X7, X8, X10, X11 and X14) were included in the model. 8 Factors influencing the use of seed ModeRR SquareAdjusted R SquareStd. Error of the Estimate 1.872 a.760.757.683 2.899 b.808.804.614 3.908 c.824.818.590 a. Predictors: (Constant), Duration of experience (X5) b. Predictors: (Constant), Duration of experience (X5), Certified Seed (X7) c. Predictors: (Constant), Duration of experience (X5), Certified Seed (X7), Seed treatment (X10) Summary of the model The first variable has the most explanatory power among these three variables. The F ratio of explanatory variables in the final model was found significant at 99% confidence level (p<0.01),  the model were correct Findings of the Study (Cont…)

9. 9 Factors influencing the use of seed (Cont…) Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients tSig. BStd. ErrorBeta (Constant) 17.298.18792.675.000 Duration of experience -.318.070-.421-4.536.000 Certified Seed -1.233.252-.437-4.886.000 Seed treatment -.430.150-.148-2.873.005 a. Dependent Variable: Seed Amount Coefficients of independent variables included in the regression model#3 -The duration of experience: negatively influencing  the use of seed amount decreased by about 0.42 unit with increase in the experience by one unit. -Two other variables: negatively influenced  The use of seed decreased by 0.44 and 0.15 unit, respectively with the increase in use of these practices by one unit.

10. 10 2/ Fertilizer The change in the amount of fertilizers used Farmer Type BeforeAfter Change % Change T-Test (B&A) Mean Std. Deviation Mean Std. Deviation Small43.17.535.25.8-7.9-7.9-18.3.000 Large47.010.334.67.4 -12.4-26.4-26.4.000 Average45.058.934.906.6 -10.1-22.5.000 T-Value-2.0.496 Sig.043.621 Use of fertilizers by type of farmers ( kg/1000 m 2 ) Findings of the Study (Cont…)

11. 11 Use of fertilizers as compared to the commended amount ( kg/1000 m 2 ) Farmer type Fertilizer Recommended amount Actual amountDifference (%) WS Season SA Season WS Season SA Season WS Season SA Season SmallNitrogen12.010.014.012.9+16.67+29.00 Phosphorus3.0 10.3 +243.33 Potassium3.05.06.27.5+106.67+50.00 LargeNitrogen12.010.013.512.6+12.50+26.00 Phosphorus3.0 10.1 +236.67 Potassium3.05.06.27.4+106.67+48.00 Source: Filed survey 2010 Note: WS: Winter-Spring; SA: Summer Autumn-Season Findings of the Study (Cont…)

12. 13 Independent variables were initially selected 13 Independent variables 9 independent variables ( X1, X2, X3, X4, X5, X6, X9, X10 and X11) with high collinearity (r > 0.70) and insignificant with dependent variable were excluded. 4 independent variables ( X7, X8, X12, and X13 ) were included in the model. 12 Summary of the model Factors influencing the use of fertilizers ModeRR SquareAdjusted R SquareStd. Error of the Estimate 1.894 a.800.7982.98917 2.912 b.832.8282.75620 a. Predictors: (Constant), Soil quality (X12) b. Predictors: (Constant), Soil quality, Followed fertilizer guideline (X13) Findings of the Study (Cont…)

13. 13 Factors influencing the use of fertilizers (Cont…) Coefficients of independent variables included in the regression model# 2 Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients tSig. BStd. ErrorBeta (Constant) 51.080.89557.061.000 Soil quality -19.4521.686-.714-11.539.000 Followed fertilizer guideline -3.658.898-.254-4.106.000 a. Dependent Variable: Fertilizer Amount after farmers’ participation in the program -The perception of soil quality negatively influencing the amount of fertilizers used  The amount of fertilizers applied decreased by about 0.71 unit with increase in the perception of soil quality by one unit. -Another variable negatively influenced the amount of fertilizers applied. The use of fertilizers decreased by 0.25 unit, with the increase in farmers’ following the 3R3G guidelines by one unit.

14. 3/ Application of pesticides 14 The pesticide application by type of farmers (Frequency per Season) Farmer type BeforeAfter Change % changes T-Test (B&A) Mean Std. Deviation Mean Std. Deviation Small Large 5.41.02.81.1-2.6-48.1.000 5.61.02.31.2-3.3-58.9.000 Average5.501.002.551.15-2.9-2.9-53.6.000 T-Value between group -1.1132.264 Sig..269.026 Farmer type No application of pesticide before the first 40 days after sowing f(%) Small2960.4 Large3068.2 Compliance with the recommended frequency of pesticides used by type of farmers that pesticides should not be used before the first 40 days after sowing seed Findings of the Study (Cont…)

15. 15 16 Independent variables 16 Independent variables were initially selected 16 Independent variables 16 Independent variables were excluded. 9 independent variables ( X1, X2, X3, X4, X5, X6, X13, X14 and X15) with high collinearity (r > 0.70) and insignificant with dependent variable were excluded. were included 7 independent variables ( X7, X8, X9, X10, X11, X12 and X16 ) were included in the model. ModelRR SquareAdjusted R SquareStd. Error of the Estimate 1.920 a.847.845.45668 2.943 b.889.887.39083 3.947 c.896.893.38053 a. Predictors: (Constant), Seed amount(X7) b. Predictors: (Constant), Seed amount(X7), Certified seed (X9) c. Predictors: (Constant), Seed amount, Certified seed, Seed treatment (X10) Model summary Factors influencing the application of pesticides (Cont…)

16. 16 Coefficients of independent variables included in the regression model# 3 Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients tSig. BStd. ErrorBeta (Constant) -1.6821.080-1.557.123 Seed amount.419.062.5006.775.000 Certified quality -1.004.162-.424-6.178.000 Seed treatment -.244.100-.100-2.426.017 a. Dependent Variable: Frequency of Pesticides sprayed Factors influencing the application of pesticides (Cont…) Factors influencing the application of pesticides (Cont…) Seed amount used (positively influencing). The frequency of pesticides sprayed increased by about 0.50 unit with increase in the amount of seed used by one unit. Two other variables negatively influenced. In the case of use of certified seed and seed treatment, the frequency decreased by 0.42 and 0.10 unit, respectively with the increase in use of these practices by one unit.

17. 17 Items Small FarmersLarge Farmers Change%changeChange%change 1/Land preparation by tractors96.18.2-8.7-0.8 2/Seed amount -307.3-20.0-285.4-19.1 3/Fertilizers amount -1,024 -22.9 -1,019 -23.7 4/Leaf-Fertilizer-Spraying-7.5-7.4-16.4-15.4 5/Pesticides -1,068 -38.7 -1,051 -41.3 6/Water-183.9-14.5-200-15.4 7/Labor-70-7.2-63.5-6.4 8/Harvest-656.2-15.6-624.4-15.3 9/ Other costs-46.1-4.6-52.5-5.3 a.Total cost-3267-18.7-3,321-19.6 Crop-productivity (Ton/ha)0.23.40.23.4 Yield (ton)2003.42003.4 Price (Million VN Dongs)0.12.00.12.0 b. Gross income1,6005.51,6005.5 c. Net-Income per ha (c-a)4,866.842.34,921.140.8 d.Profit/unit of investment (c/a) 0.4975.00.5475.2 (Cost and Income Million VN Dongs per hectare) 1/ The gain in income Three Gains: Income, Health, and Soil Condition Findings of the Study (Cont…)

18. 2/ The gain in Health 18 Index of farmers’ health Health problem Small (n=48)Large (n=44) BeforeAfter% changeBeforeAfter% change Eye irritation0.45*0.13* -71.1 0.42*0.17* -59.5 Skin irritation0.73**0.16** -78.1 0.69*0.13** -81.2 Respiration0.44*0.09* -79.5 0.38*0.07* -81.6 Headache0.42*0.09* -78.6 0.42*0.06* -85.7 Dizziness0.41*0.11* -73.2 0.42*0.09* -78.6 Fatigue0.43*0.08* -81.4 0.37*0.07* -81.1 *t significant at 0.05/0.01 confident level The higher the index value, the more severe the health problem Findings of the Study (Cont…)

19. 3/ Gain in soil condition 19 Farmers’ perception of soil quality Index of soil quality participation in the 3R3G program Farmer typeIndex of Soil quality Small (n=48).655 Large (n=44).647 T Value.034 Sig..855 Source: Field Survey, 2010 Index: 0.00 = Not improvement; 0.33= little improvement; 0.66 = Moderate improvement; 1.00 = Significant improvement; The higher the index value, the higher the improvement Findings of the Study (Cont…)

20. 20 3/ Gain in soil condition (Cont…) Crop yield before and after participation in the program Farmer type BeforeAfter Changes % changes T-Test (B&A) Mean Std. Deviation Mean Std. Deviation Small6.20.456.60.44 +0.4+6.45.000 Large6.10.486.50.40 +0.4+6.55.000 Average6.150.466.550.42 +0.4+6.50.000 T-Value between group.812.374 Sig..419.709 (Ton/ha) Source: Field Survey, 2010

21. Summary, Conclusion and Recommendations 21 Input/output components Summary of +/- % changes after farmers’ participation in the 3R3G program Small farmersLarge farmers Seed amount used- - - Fertilizer amount used- - - Frequency of pesticides sprayed- - - Input costs- - - Net income+++ Profit per unit investment++ Crop yield++ Summary of changes after farmers’ participation in the 3R3G program Source: Analysis results from previous chapters of the study NB: +/- Increased/decreased ++/-- Relatively more increased/decreased

22. 22 Seed reduction Fertilizer reduction Pesticide sprayed reduction Net farm Income Soil condition Farmers' health Sustainable agricultural development  Duration of experience  Certified seed  Seed treatment  Soil quality  Followed fertilizer guideline  Seed amount used  Certified seed  Seed treatment Conclusion Factors found

23. Recommendations  Encourage all of farmers using certified seeds, and using Line Seedling Drum for sowing seeds in practice the 3R3G farm Line Seedling Drum  Providing with sufficient certified seed amount directly at farmers’ area  Training farmers on seed treatment or encourage farmers to use treated seeds.  Mobilizing and inviting groups of agricultural hired labors, small farmers and female farmers attending the 3R3G training courses 23

24. Thank you very much! 24

25. Questions and Answers Please! 25