1. Senior Seminar Fall 2008 ISP 4860 Section 003 (Bowen) Class 3, September 17 Course web site: www.is.wayne.edu/drbowen/SenSemF08

2. 9/17/08ISP 4860 Fall 2008, Class 32 Agenda Tonight in UGL Lab C (Room 3150) Searching WSU research databases  Deborah Tucker Review of human footprint Content: urbanization Assignments  Research portfolio Writing: organization

3. 9/17/08ISP 4860 Fall 2008, Class 33 The Human Footprint Refers to total human impact on earth  Includes how we affect ourselves We are not typical – we are at the rich end Many systems we depend on are stretched now Will get worse  Population growth, economic growth, safety margin

4. 9/17/08ISP 4860 Fall 2008, Class 34 The Human Footprint Quick review of different areas – all interlocked  Population  Urbanization  Ecosystem services  Food / fish  Water  Energy / Global Warming  Tragedy of Commons  Consumption & waste  Development / disease  Land: dwelling & food  Sustainability

5. 9/17/08ISP 4860 Fall 2008, Class 35 All Are Interlocked Cannot solve one while making others worse  Yes, this is interdisciplinary  This is why I want your paper to begin and end (Chapters 1 and 5) with the overview

6. 9/17/08ISP 4860 Fall 2008, Class 36 The human footprint Many of these areas are in trouble now Will get worse  Population growth  Economic growth  Safety margin World population now about 6.6 B, headed for 9.1 by 2050 (UN) Will increase need for resources in all areas

7. 9/17/08ISP 4860 Fall 2008, Class 37 Human Population Region2007 Pop (B)2050 UN est. World6.69.1 China1.31.4 India1.01.5 US0.310.41 Europe0.730.65 More Developed1.2 Less Developed5.47.8 Least Developed0.801.7

8. 9/17/08ISP 4860 Fall 2008, Class 38 The Human Footprint Most of additional world population will be poor, use fewer resources So population rise might not have as large an impact as the numbers suggest, but…

9. 9/17/08ISP 4860 Fall 2008, Class 39 The Human Footprint Will get worse – economic growth  Rest of humanity wants to be like developed world  US ~4.5% of population  For example, we consume 20 M Bbl/day of petroleum, whole world consumes 80 (US 25%)  Factor of five to seven increase (depends on area) if they achieve our current lifestyle  If new population is poor, they will have further to develop, so same problem eventually

10. 9/17/08ISP 4860 Fall 2008, Class 310 The Human Footprint Will get worse  I suggest we also need a safety factor because systems are stretched now Maybe 1.5 for safety factor  Total increase in consumption: 1.5 (population) × 6 (consumption) × 1.5 (safety) = 12 to 15 (8 to 10 without safety factor)  No one knows how to produce this much more in any aspect YOUR PAPER CAN STOP HERE

11. 9/17/08ISP 4860 Fall 2008, Class 311 The Human Footprint One view is that the future will be like our present, but with more people  So we just need to muddle along, adjusting here or there But no, we can’t get there (see previous) Need to reinvent civilization  Has happened several times before  Should we hurry the change along, or continue the present as long as we can? Different people have different opinions here Someone has to have an idea before change happens

12. 9/17/08ISP 4860 Fall 2008, Class 312 The Human Footprint How can a change this large happen, worldwide?  I don’t see any government that has the ability and the will to force it on the world  Therefore, the change must be something we all see as better than what we have now  Probably composed of many small changes and experiments that accumulate My own guess is that online life will be a part – we see it starting already

13. 9/17/08ISP 4860 Fall 2008, Class 313 The Human Footprint US and other developed countries in the best position to lead these changes  Many people seeing this as good business also  If it is too expensive for poor countries, won’t work, unless they develop economically

14. 9/17/08ISP 4860 Fall 2008, Class 314 Content: Urbanization Urbanization: mass movement of people (especially poor) into cities  Has already happened in developed countries, but will grow to 75%  Not in PIP  In SOP, part of Human Population chapter – pg 16 ff  UN projection: almost all growth will be in cities in the poor countries 2.2 B ↑, 2.1 B ↑ in cities, 2.0 ↑ in poor countries

15. 9/17/08ISP 4860 Fall 2008, Class 315 Urbanization (Vital Signs 2007-2008) “Megacities” – more than ten million population – number is increasing What causes this:  Higher urban birth rates  Rural poverty  War Problems:  Poverty – UN defines this as lack of at least one basic necessity (water, sanitation, housing, secure tenure)

16. 9/17/08ISP 4860 Fall 2008, Class 316 Urbanization Problems  Poor move to cities without housing, sanitation  “Squatting”  No education, jobs, etc.  Will need to recycle more resources within urban areas

17. 9/17/08ISP 4860 Fall 2008, Class 317 Urbanization (2008 NYT Almanac) Rank1975200020052015 1Tokyo 2NY- Newark Mexico City Mumbai 3Mexico City NY- Newark Mexico City 4?São Paulo 5?Mumbai NY- Newark

18. 9/17/08ISP 4860 Fall 2008, Class 318 Other Demographic Trends Urbanization is a demographic trend Aging is another – world population will get older in all regions Life expectancy:  World: 67  More developed regions: 76  Less developed regions: 63  Least developed countries: 27 Another: increasing literacy, worldwide

19. 9/17/08ISP 4860 Fall 2008, Class 319 Assignments Today – choice of topic via Moodle Next week (September 24)  Meet in 79 Manoogian, and for rest of semester  My office hours in 64 Manoogian  Bring Research Portfolio to class (next page) October 8 – list of references October 15 – draft of Chapter 1 (overview)

20. 9/17/08ISP 4860 Fall 2008, Class 320 For Next Week… Have research portfolio:  Three-ring binder  Dividers to separate sections – example sections Syllabus Study Tools: dates, names, definitions, etc. Word hoard: Definitions of new words you learn. Weekly Meetings: notes, handouts Scrapbook: materials related to course including newspaper clips, media comments, INTERNET downloads, ads, cartoons, summaries of conversations, documents, essays, etc. Final Research Paper: all materials related to papers such as drafts, database sheets and bibliography, notes, photocopies of readings, and all drafts. Pouch for tools such as pens, markers, 3-hole punch, stapler, etc. Place for 3½-inch floppy diskette labeled with your name, or a USB flash drive, any capacity Ready for Moodle picture

21. 9/17/08ISP 4860 Fall 2008, Class 321 Writing: Organization Not required, but Paper Planner on course website has helped some Outline used to be important, but with word processor can change material around Another outline activity  Arrange cards in best order  Turn in group report  Done