1. Populations

2. OVERVIEW Population: all the individuals of one species in a given area HOW POPULATIONS GROW –Exponential vs. logistic –r VS. K –Carrying Capacity Human Population Statistics –Predictions Impact on Conservation

3. Fig. 9.4, p. 201 Time (t) Population size (N) Exponential Growth Biotic Potential – Pop. Grows as fast as physiology allows. Unlimited resources No pollution build up Ideal conditions Short lived period Often quickly die out, colonize new areas R selected species

4. Fig. 9.4, p. 201 Time (t) Population size (N) K Logistic Growth Slower initial growth Long –term stable pop. At carrying capacity (K). K is size of pop. Area can sustain. Growth slowed by limiting factors

5. Fig. 8-3, p. 163 Environmental Resistance Time (t) Population size (N) Carrying capacity (K) Exponential Growth Biotic Potential

6. Fig. 8-4, p. 164 Carrying capacity Year Number of sheep (millions) Overshoot

7. Fig. 8-11, p. 169 Percentage surviving (log scale) Age Early loss Late loss Constant loss

8. Reproductive Patterns r-selected species tend to be opportunists while K-selected species tend to be competitors. Figure 8-10

9. Fig. 8-6, p. 165 Number of reindeer Population overshoots carrying capacity Carrying capacity Year Population Crashes

10. Fig. 8-7, p. 166 Population size (thousands) Year Lynx Hare

11. Fig. 9.9, p. 204 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 500 Number of moose 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1900191019301950197019902000 1997 Year Number of wolves Moose population Wolf population

12. Fig. 1.1, p. 2 16 15 14 13 12 11 Billions of people ? ? ? 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2-5 million years 8000600040002000 2100 Hunting and gathering Black Death–the Plague Time Industrial revolution Agricultural revolution B.C.A.D.

13. Fig. 9-3, p. 174 Average crude death rate Average crude birth rate World 21 9 All developed countries 11 10 All developing countries 27 8 9 23 Developing countries (w/o China)

14. Fig. 11.8, p. 242 Births per woman < 2 2-2.9 3-3.9 4-4.9 5+ Data not available

15. Fig. 9-3, p. 174 14 Europe North America United States Oceania Asia Africa Latin and Central America 38 15 21 6 20 7 17 7 14 8 8 11 10

16. Fig. 9-4, p. 174 2025 1.5 billion China 1.3 billion India 1.1 billion 1.4 billion USA 300 million 349 million Indonesia225 million 264 million Brazil 187 million 229 million Pakistan166 million 229 million Bangladesh 147 million 190 million Russia 142 million 130 million 135 million Nigeria 199 million Japan 121 million 128 million 2006

17. GNP per capita, 1998 Low income (Under $1,000) Middle income ($1,000–$10,000) High income (Above $10,000) Fig. 1.5, p. 9

18. Fig. 9-5, p. 175 Replacement Level Year Births per woman Baby boom (1946–64)

19. Fig. 9-7, p. 176 47 years Homicides per 100,000 people Hourly manufacturing job wage (adjusted for inflation) Living in suburbs Homes with electricity Homes with flush toilets High school graduates Married women working outside the home Life expectancy 1.2 5.8 $15 $3 52% 10% 99% 2% 98% 10% 83% 15% 81% 2000 1900 8% 77 years

20. Fig. 9-8, p. 178 1907 Year Number of legal immigrants (thousands) New laws restrict Immigration 1914 Great Depression

21. Fig. 9-9, p. 179 Expanding Rapidly Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia Expanding Slowly United States Australia Canada Stable Spain Portugal Greece Declining Germany Bulgaria Italy Prereproductive ages 0–14 Reproductive ages 15– 44 Postreproductive ages 45–85+ FemaleMale Female

22. Fig. 9-11, p. 180 Females Males Age FemalesMales Age Females Males Age Females Males Age 19551985 2015 2035

23. Fig. 9-15, p. 186 Total fertility rate Percentage of world population Population Population (2050) (estimated) Illiteracy (% of adults) Population under age 15 (%) Population growth rate (%) 17% 20% 1.1 billion 1.3 billion 1.6 billion India China GDP PPP per capita Percentage living below $2 per day Life expectancy 47% 17% 36% 20% 1.6% 0.6% 1.4 billion $5,890 $3,120 47 80 70 years 62 years 27 58 1.6 children per women (down from 5.7 in 1972) Infant mortality rate 2.9 children per women (down from 5.3 in 1970)

24. Fig. 9-16, p. 188 Biologically simplified Mostly nonrenewable fossil fuel energy High Often lost or wasted Used, destroyed, or degraded to support human activities Property Complexity Energy source Waste production Nutrients Net primary productivity Natural Systems Biologically diverse Renewable solar energy Little, if any Recycled Shared among many species Human- Dominated Systems

25. Fig. 9-17, p. 188 Reduction of biodiversity Increasing use of the earth's net primary productivity Increasing genetic resistance of pest species and disease-causing bacteria Elimination of many natural predators Deliberate or accidental introduction of potentially harmful species into communities Using some renewable resources faster than they can be replenished Interfering with the earth's chemical cycling and energy flow processes Relying mostly on polluting fossil fuels Natural Capital Degradation Altering Nature to Meet Our Needs

26. Human Population growth For most of our history a logistic curve. Currently exponential growth –Not uniform around the globe –Developing nations growing fastest What has made the change possible? –Drop in death rate. Birth rate has fallen, not increased. How long will this be sustainable? Future predictions for growth?

27. Fig. 11.14, p. 246 Infant deaths per 1,000 live births <10 10-35 36-70 71-100 100+ Data not available

28. Fig. 11.3, p. 240 <1% 1-1.9% 2-2.9% 3+% Data not available Annual world population growth

29. Fig. 11.4, p. 240 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 19501960197019801990200020102020203020402050 Growth rate (percent) Year

30. Fig. 11.5, p. 241 China India USA Indonesia Brazil Pakistan Russia Bangladesh Japan Nigeria 2000 2025 1.26 billion 1.4 billion 1 billion 1.4 billion 276 million 338 million 212 million 273 million 170 million 221 million 151 million 227 million 145 million 137 million 128 million 177 million 127 million 121 million 123 million 205 million

31. Fig. 11.6, p. 241 Asia Europe Africa Latin America North America Oceania 3.7 billion 4.7 billion 728 million 714 million 800 million 1.3 billion 518 million 703 million 306 million 374 million 31 million 39 million 20002025

32. Fig. 11.10, p. 243 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 2.1 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 1920193019401950196019701980199020002010 Year Births per woman Total fertility rates in USA 1917-2000 Baby Boom (1946-64) Below replacement rate- immigration keeps population growing

33. Fig. 11.12a, p. 244 Extremely Effective Total abstinence Sterilization Hormonal implant (Norplant) 100% 99.6% 98% Highly Effective IUD with slow-release hormones IUD plus spermicide Vaginal pouch (“female condom”) IUD Condom (good brand) plus spermicide Oral contraceptive 98% 97% 95% 93% Birth Control Methods:

34. Effective Cervical cap Condom (good brand) Diaphragm plus spermicide Rhythm method (Billings, Sympto-Thermal) Vaginal sponge impreg- nated with spermicide Spermicide (foam) 89% 86% 84% 83% 82% Moderately Effective Spermicide (creams, jellies, suppositories) Rhythm method (daily temperature readings) Withdrawl Condom (cheap brand) Unreliable Douche Chance (no method) 75% 74% 70% 40% 10% Fig. 11.12b, p. 244

35. Fig. 11.13a, p. 245 Developed Countries 50 40 30 20 10 0 1775 1800 185019001950 2000 2050 Rate per 1,000 people Year Rate of natural increase Crude birth rate Crude death rate Rate of natural increase = crude birth rate = crude death rate

36. Fig. 11.13b, p. 245 Developing Countries 50 40 30 20 10 0 1775 1800 185019001950 2000 2050 Rate per 1,000 people Crude birth rate Rate of natural increase Crude death rate Year

37. Fig. 11.15, p. 246 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 193019401950196019701980199020001920 Years Deaths under age 1 per 1,000 live births

38. Demographic transition Death rate ( infant mortality) drops first. Birth rate remains constant Population increase quickly Economy transitions from agriculture to urban. Larger families cost more, birth rate drops. Population. Now much larger slows its growth rate. Influence of other (cultural, religious) pressures Women often lack freedom to determine family size, education employment opportunities

39. Fig. 9-14, p. 183 Birth rate Death rate Total population Stage 1 Preindustrial Stage 2 Transitional Stage 3 Industrial Stage 4 Postindustrial Growth rate over time Birth rate and death rate (number per 1,00 per year) Relative population size Low Increasing Very highDecreasing Zero Negative High

40. Fig. 9-6, p. 175 Demographic transition Depression End of World War II Baby boom Baby bust Echo baby boom Births per thousand population Year

41. Some predications Will technology save us? The soft landing – no population collapse Will we have a crash after we have exceeded our carrying capacity? No one knows

42. Fig. 11.9, p. 242 High Medium Low 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 19501960197019801990200020102020203020402050 High 10.7 Medium 8.9 Low 7.3 Year Population (billion)

43. Fig. 11.22, p. 249 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 19501970199020102030205020702090211021302150 Year Age Distribution (%) Under age 15 Age 60 or overAge 80 or over

44. Fig. 11.24a, p. 251 State of the World 190020002100 Year Industrial output Food Resources Population Pollution

45. Fig. 11.25a, p. 254 State of the World 190020002100 Year Industrial output Food Resources Population Pollution

46. Influence on environment More land fro agriculture, resource exploitation More land for cities, roadways, suburbs Less fish in the sea for the food chain Deforestation Oil, gas won’t last forever Pollution builds up Better “green” technologies? Heightened awareness, concern? Better understanding of ecosystems?

47. Human disturbance Tropic of Capricorn Equator Predominantly natural Partially disturbed Human dominated Antarctic Circle Tropic of Cancer Arctic Circle Arctic Circle Fig. 1.4, p. 8

48. World total Developing countries Developed countries Population (billions) 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year Fig. 1.6, p. 9

49. United States The Netherlands India Country Per Captia Ecological Footprint (Hectares of land per person) 10.9 5.9 1.0 Fig. 1.10a, p. 11