1. Dr Carl O’Brien ACOM (Advisory Committee) Vice-chair ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea) State of Fish Stocks in European Waters 26 th September 2012 Centre de Conférences Albert Borschette, Brussels, Belgium

2. Content of presentation OVERVIEW OF NORTHEAST ATLANTIC STOCKS Summarise the biological status of the main stocks of interest for EU fisheries New procedures for assessing and managing stocks with incomplete data will be explained

3. 1.Iceland & East Greenland 2.Barents Sea & Norwegian Sea 3.Faroe Plateau 4.North Sea 5.Celtic Sea & West of Scotland 6.Bay of Biscay & Atlantic Iberian Waters 7.Baltic Sea Widely distributed stocks Ecoregions EU stocks ICES’ advice

4. State of stocks: MSY (all ecoregions) General trends in the Northeast Atlantic ICES (2011). Report of the ICES Advisory Committee. Book 1, 226pp. 2010: 33 of assessed stocks 2011: 35 of assessed stocks 2012: tbd

5. 2010: –78 individual fish stocks –Quantitative advice for 10 data-limited stocks Majority of the data-limited stocks have more information available than merely either catch or landings. 2012: –185 individual fish stocks –Quantitative advice for 68 data-limited stocks New approach intends to aid policy-makers move towards sustainable exploitation of fisheries 81% (68 out of 84)

6. Advice and expert groups (Jan. to Sept. 2012) Number of stocks for which advice is requested Number of special requests General Advice 9 fisheries related requests 5 environment related requests 4 ecosystem related requests Iceland and East Greenland20 stocks Barents Sea and the Norwegian Sea9 stocks Faroe Plateau Ecosystem12 stocks Celtic Sea and West of Scotland48 stocks1 special fisheries related request North Sea34 stocks1 special fisheries related request Bay of Biscay and Atlantic Iberian Waters 23 stocks Baltic Sea15 stocks1 special fisheries related request Widely Distributed and Migratory Stocks 21 stocks3 special fisheries related requests North Atlantic Salmon3 stocks

7. Landings: –Mis-reporting (area / species) –Insufficient or unrepresentative biological sampling coverage –No reporting Discards: –No reporting –Insufficient observer coverage and coverage bias Effort: –Non-availability –Poor linkage to fishing practice / métier –Poor comparability It was not possible to include Spanish commercial data for 2011. Catch options and advice for 2013: based on the 2011 assessment. Data quality issues Stock surveys (e.g. coverage, design and consistency in time) Biological data (Bias / errors in measurements of age and maturity; uncertain stock identity) Email 25 th September 2012 13:01 Spanish national authorities are investigating a pragmatic solution to provide the best estimate of catches … unallocated catches … => Assess stock size and provide management advice

8. Same principles, concept and framework: Maximize average long-term yield (setting F MSY ) Safeguard against low SSB (setting MSY B trigger ) MSY B trigger F MSY SSB 2013 more caution needed ICES MSY Harvest Control Rule (HCR) ICES’ MSY

9. Transition to MSY HCR by 2015 F MSY-HCR transition 2013 = 0.4 F(2010) + 0.6 F MSY-HCR Moving from F 2010 to F MSY-HCR in 2015 in 5 steps F MSY-HCR transition 2014 = 0.2 F(2010) + 0.8 F MSY-HCR F MSY-HCR transition 2015 = 0.0 F(2010) + 1.0 F MSY-HCR = F MSY-HCR (values of advised F capped at F pa for consistency with PA) ICES’ MSY... continued Quantitative assessments and outlook tables with catch options for 2013 are not always available! New approach this year for data-limited stocks to provide quantitative advice … previously qualitative advice … do not increase … reduce catch

10. Activity in 2012 - Enormous scientific / advisory effort! WKLIFE (February), RGLIFE (May); development by Cefas, ACOM Leadership, ICES’ Secretariat and ICES’ community Three basic principles: 1) Available information should be used. 2) Advice for DLS should, to the extent possible, follow the same principles as for data-rich stocks; i.e. aiming towards exploitation consistent with MSY. 3)The less data available, the more precaution should be taken when establishing limits for fishing opportunities. Data-limited stocks (DLS)

11. Categorisation of stocks (6 categories) from data-rich towards situations of decreasing information. Methods proposed for different categories – further developments, simulation testing... on-going Common DLS situations: stock abundance index and F relative to F MSY-proxy (plaice in VIId) stock abundance index available (megrim VIIb-k & VIIIabd) (anglerfish …) F in relation to F MSY-proxy available (sole VIIh-k) time-series available of landings only (sole VIIbc) (whiting IIIa) Data-limited stocks (DLS)... continued

12. Advice starts from recent catch (for most stocks, average landings of last 3 years) and modifies it as follows: If stock abundance index available: modify according to index trend in last 5 years (Average last 2 years)/(Average 3 previous years) If current F relative to F MSY-proxy known: modify according to change required in current F to reach F MSY-proxy (could be in steps until 2015) If time series available of landings only: no modification (but precautionary margin always applied) Data-limited stocks (DLS)... continued

13. After appropriate DLS method has been applied, two subsequent sequential steps: 1. Uncertainty window: limit result to 20% change (increase or decrease) (because results more noisy than with standard stock assessments) 2. Precautionary margin: 20% reduction if stock status relative to (candidate) reference points unknown, unless there is evidence that stock is strongly increasing or that exploitation (F or effort) has decreased substantially Data-limited stocks (DLS)... continued

14. Advice applicable to time-frame compatible with measurable response in metrics used as basis for advice The less data available, the more precaution should be taken when establishing limits for fishing opportunities, and when precautionary margin applied: no expected change in advice for a number of years (e.g. 3 years tbd) unless important new knowledge emerges Data-limited stocks (DLS)... continued

15. North Sea autumn spawners – NSAS EU/Norway MP Western Baltic spring spawners – WBSS MSY Herring stocks – NS, CS & WoS

16. Herring stocks – NS, CS & WoS... cont. NSAS WBSS IS Celtic Sea and S Ireland VIa (south) and VIIb,c VIa (north)

17. Celtic Sea & West, Southwest Ireland Cod (VIIe-k) Haddock (VIIb-k) Whiting (VIIe-k) Plaice (CS; VIIh-k; VIIbc) Sole (CS; VIIh-k; VIIbc) Northern hake Anglerfish (VIIb-k, VIIIabd) Megrim (VIIb-k, VIIIabd) Nephrops (FUs 16-17-20-22) English Channel Cod (IV, VIId, Skagerrak) Plaice (VIId) Plaice (VIIe) Sole (VIId) Sole (VIIe) West of Scotland & Rockall (VIab) Cod (VIa; VIb) Haddock (VIa; VIb) Whiting (VIa; VIb) Anglerfish (IIIa,IV,VI) Megrim (IVa-VIa; VIb) Nephrops (FUs11-12- 13) Irish Sea (VIIa) Cod Haddock Whiting Plaice Sole Nephrops (FUs 14-15-19) Other stocks – Channel, CS & WoS

18. StockF MSY MSY B trigger Advice last yearAdvice this year Plaice SW Ireland0.24nd reduce catch < 100 t; reduce bycatch and discards Plaice W Irelandnd no increase in catch< 30 t Plaice Celtic Seand reduce catch; technical measures < 360 t; technical measures to reduce discard rates Plaice Irish Seand no increase in catch; tech measures < 490 t Plaice W Channel0.241 650 t< 1440 t< 2 100 t Plaice E Channel0.23ndno increase in catch< 4 300 t; reduce discards StockF MSY MSY B trigger Advice last yearAdvice this year Sole SW Ireland0.31ndno increase in catch < 200 t; take into account advice for plaice Sole W Irelandnd no increase in catch< 30 t Sole Celtic Sea0.312 200 t< 1 060 t< 1 100 t Sole Irish Sea0.163 100 t< 200 t no directed fisheries; minimise bycatch, discards Sole W Channel0.272 800 t< 740 t< 960 t Sole E Channel0.298 000 t< 5 600 t< 5 900 t Overview by species / stocks: flatfish

19. StockF MSY MSY B trigger Advice last yearAdvice this year Hake – Northern0.24nd< 51 900 t< 45 400 t Angler VIIb-k & VIIIabdnd reduce catch< 24 800 t Angler IIIa, IV, VInd reduce catchreduce by 20% Megrim IVa, VIa0.299 700 tno increase in catch< 4 700 t Megrim Rockallnd no increase in catch< 160 t Megrim VIIb-k & VIIIabdnd reduce catch< 12 000 t Pollack VI, VIInd no increase< 4 200 t Overview by species / stocks

20. Advice for 2013, MSY transition: Landings < 45 400 t * No assessment in 2012, last year’s assessment * Strong year-class in 2007 and 2008, but weak in 2009 and 2010 * Very strong increase in SSB and decrease in F * Rapid growth and fast dynamics Hake – Northern stock

21. Landings 2010 – 73 000 t (discards ~6 700 t) No stock landings or discards in 2011 (Spanish data not available) Discards included in assessment but incomplete and high uncertainty Short-term forecast in terms of catch  split into landings and discards F (2011) and F (2012) = F(2008-2010) = 0.42; landings (2011) = 77.4, landings (2012) = 63.2; SSB (2013) = 114 kt Rationale Human consump. landings (2013) Basis F Total (2013) F HC (2013) F Disc (2013) Disc. (2013) Catch Total (2013) SSB (2014) %SSB change 1) %TAC change 2) MSY framework37.2 F MSY (F sq *0.57) 0.240.200.041.739.0141.9+24%−32% MSY transition45.4 0.4*F 2010 +0.6*F MSY (F sq *0.71) 0.300.260.042.147.6133.4+17%−18% Recovery Plan 46.8 −15% TAC (F sq *0.75) 0.310.270.052.249.0132.0+16%−15% Other options55.1 Equal TAC (F sq *0.91) 0.380.320.062.757.8123.3+8%0% 59.9F sq *10.420.360.062.962.8118.4+4%+9% 63.3 +15% TAC (F sq *1.08) 0.4540.390.073.166.4114.70%+15% 68.9F sq *1.20.510.430.073.472.3108.9−5%+25% 35% of projected landings in 2013 from assumed recruitment (2011-2013) Hake – Northern stock... continued

22. Advice 2013, DLS: Reduce catch by 20% in relation to last 3 years average. Due to uncertainty in landings data, ICES cannot quantify resulting catch. Dedicated anglerfish surveys in Division IVa and Subarea VI indicate decline since 2008: (Average last 2 years) 20% lower than (average previous 3 years)  20% catch decrease with respect to recent average (last 3 year average) 1.Uncertainy window: 20% decrease 2.Precautionary margin: no because significant effort decrease in main fisheries Anglerfish (Lophius piscatorius & L. budegassa) in Division IIIa and Subareas IV and VI

23. East- Greenland Iceland Faroe-plateau Faroe-bank Rockall West Scotland Irish Sea VIIe-k NE Arctic Norwegian Coastal North Sea + Kattegat Western Baltic Eastern Baltic Cod stocks – Northeast Atlantic

24. Advice for 2013, EU/Norway MP: Landings < 25 441 t * Gradual improvement in last years, but still poor stock status * F well above F MSY * SSB just below B lim * All year-classes since 1997 very low * Proportion discarded in recent years higher than in past Cod in Subarea IV and Divisions VIId and IIIa West

25. Total removals 2011 – 67 kt: landings (35kt), discards (12kt), unallocated (20kt) Catch = landings + discards = 47 kt Main sources of uncertainty: unallocated removals and assumptions for F(2012) Short-term forecast in terms of catch  split into landings, discards and unallocated F (2012) reduction according to MP; SSB(2012) = 65 kt ( < B lim )  MP F(2013) = 0.35 x F(2008) = 0.22, subject to 20% TAC constraint Rationale Landings 1) BasisF total F land F disc F unal 2) Disc Unal 2) SSB %SSB 3) %TAC 4) (2013) (2014)Change Management Plan 25.441 TAC constraint 0.260.150.060.056.58.6107+37%−20% Cod in Subarea IV and Divisions VIId and IIIa West

26. F (2012) reduction according to observed trend in F during 2006-10; SSB(2013) < MSY B trigger Rationale Landings 1) BasisF total F land F disc F unal 2) Disc Unal 2) SSB %SSB 3) %TAC 4) (2013) (2014)Change Management Plan 25.441 TAC constraint 0.270.160.06 6.68.6103+36%-20% MSY framework 10 F MSY * SSB 2013 /B trigger 0.100.060.02 2.53.4123+63%-69% MSY transition 28 Transition rule 0.290.170.06 7.29.4101+33%-13% Zero catch 0 F=0 0.00 0.0 136+80%-100% Other options 19 F MSY 0.190.110.04 4.96.4112+47%-41% 25.441 TAC 2012 −20% 0.270.160.06 6.68.6103+36%-20% 38.161 TAC 2012 +20% 0.430.250.09 10.213.087+15%+20% 43 F 2012 0.500.290.100.1111.714.881+7%+36% 43 Landings 2012 0.490.280.10 11.514.682+8%+34% Mixed fisheries options – minor differences with calculation above can occur due to different methodology used (ICES, 2012b) Maximum 49A0.77 NA 50-34 %+55 % Minimum 25B0.25 NA 11451 %-20 % Cod MP 25C0.29 NA 95+25 %-20 % SQ effort 42D0.55 NA 68-10%+33 % Effort_Mgt 30E0.32 NA 96+26 %-6 % Mixed fisheries options presented in advice for first time: TAC for cod is the limiting one in the North Sea Cod in Subarea IV and Divisions VIId and IIIa West

27. In 2012, for the North Sea, ICES presents for the first time in its advice: an analysis of the implications of mixed fisheries under current TAC and effort regimes Catch advice for each stock on a single stock basis (based on MP, MSY framework or PA) Are the TACs corresponding to this advice in agreement with each other in mixed fisheries context? Or are TACs for some species likely to be exhausted much sooner than for others? (in which case, some species will be caught above or below the TAC) Mixed fisheries scenarios for North Sea stocks

28. Analysis assumes: same fleet behaviour in 2012 and 2013 as in 2011 (same fishing pattern and catchability) Five example mixed fisheries scenarios explored: min: fleets stop fishing when their first quota exhausted max: fleets stop fishing when their last quota exhausted cod: fleets stop fishing when their cod quota exhausted Status quo effort: effort (E) equal to most recent year Effort management: E reduced according to regulations min and max not realistic, but provide boundaries Mixed fisheries scenarios for North Sea stocks... continued

29. Individual stock objectives cannot all be achieved simultaneously In 2013, the TAC (advice) for cod is the most limiting Mixed fisheries scenarios for North Sea stocks... continued

30. SSB in 2014 according to single-stock advice and mixed-fisheries scenarios: Mixed fisheries scenarios for North Sea stocks... continued

31. Fleets will change behaviour in response to their catch possibilities for different species – but difficult to predict Full value of mixed fisheries models will be realized with input from managers and stakeholders on trade-offs between different species in catch; e.g. scenarios that take into account value of different species or other aspects influencing fleets’ behaviour scenarios that consider changes in fleets’ selectivities incorporation of mixed-fishery effects in LTMP Mixed fisheries scenarios for North Sea stocks... continued

32. Biological interactions occur between fish from a population, across populations and with other components of the marine ecosystem. Some aspects incorporated in ICES’ single-stock advice (e.g. natural mortality values that reflect history of predator populations) – but more progress is required Density-dependent effects imply that all the expected increases in stock abundance based on an MSY approach on an individual stock basis are unlikely to occur simultaneously Multi-species considerations

33. Response of the stocks to changes in fishing pressure will also be affected by biological interactions In most regions, reliable predictive models accounting for the effect of biological interactions on stocks’ response do not exist at present. If that continues to be the case, a stock-by-stock MSY approach will be used based on the observed response of the stocks once they have been fished at F MSY When reliable predictive models are developed: multispecies fishing strategies to be developed to achieve MSY on multispecies basis - requires evaluating trade- offs based on managers’ and stakeholders’ preferences Multi-species considerations... continued

34. In the 2012 advice, ICES presents an illustration concerning multi-species management for cod, herring and sprat fisheries in the Baltic: At this stage, work is illustrative Meant as starting point for dialogue Need to agree on objectives and risk tolerance Will need a transition period Focuses on most obvious interactions between cod, sprat and herring. Not a full ecosystem or food-web model ICES will pursue further development of multi-species work with a view to integrate it into advice when ready Multi-species considerations... continued

35. For cod, sprat and herring in the Central Baltic Sea it could be possible: –to increase the sum of the sustainable yield of the 3 species combined in tonnes –to improve the growth of individual fish of the 3 species However, –cod yields will remain about the same –the probability of low cod SSB will increase Results assume full spatial overlap –Spatial overlap currently limited, cod in 25, sprat and herring in 28-29 and 32 Multi-species considerations... continued

36. Advice for 2013 and 2014, DLS: Catch < 4 700 t * Landings and CPUE data from start of fishery * CPUE from tally book in VI, considered the most reliable biomass index * Growth faster than for other deep-water species * Mixed trawl fisheries with roundnose grenadier and blue ling * Trend in last 5 years: 20% increase * Precautionary margin: no because exploitation not detrimental to stock Black scabbardfish in Subareas VI, VII and Divisions Vb and XIIb

37. Advice for 2013 and 2014: No directed fisheries; reduce by-catch. Catches well below historic levels, indicating depletion. No indication of recovery * Red seabream: low productivity * By-catch in longline, gillnet and trawl fisheries; no catch data on recreational fisheries Red seabream in Subareas VI, VII and VIII

38. Digest of official advice Brief information on fish stocks 2012: popular version http://www.ices.dk/products/ BriefInformation.asp

39. Popular version Comments to carl@ices.dk before 1 st January 2013 carl@ices.dk