1. Global Change Information System (GCIS) ESIP Federation Winter Meeting, 2014 www.globalchange.gov

2. Overview Background and Status of the GCIS – Who are we? – What are we doing now? – How are we doing it? The Future of GCIS – What does everyone think we should do? 2

3. Coordinates Federal research to better understand and prepare the nation for global change Prioritizes and supports cutting edge scientific work in global change Assesses the state of scientific knowledge and the Nation’s readiness to respond to global change Communicates research findings to inform, educate, and engage the global community The Program: U.S. Global Change Research Program 3

4. Staff (some of many contributors) The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) National Coordination Office (NCO): Curt Tilmes 1, Steve Aulenbach 2, Brian Duggan 2, Justin Goldstein 2, Amanda McQueen 2, Julie Morris 2, Glynis Lough 2 The National Climate Assessment (NCA) Technical Support Unit (TSU): David Easterling 3, Paula Hennon 4, Angel Li 4, April Sides 6, Mark Phillips 5, Sarah Champion 4, Andrew Buddenberg 4, Devin Thomas 6 Habitat Seven (NCA Web Design and Development): Jamie Herring, Phil Evans, Aires Almeida, Graham Blair Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) Tetherless World Constellation (TWC) (Semantic Web Information Modeling): Peter Fox, Xiaogang Ma, Patrick West, Jin Zheng Forum One (globalchange.gov Web Design, Development and Integration): Mike Shoag, Michael Rader, John Schneider 1.NASA 2.University Corporation for Atmospheric Research 3.NOAA/NCDC 4.The Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites (CICS), North Carolina State University 5.National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center (NEMAC), UNC Asheville 6.ERT, Inc. 4

5. 5 Global Change Research Act (1990), Section 106 …not less frequently than every 4 years, the Council… shall prepare… an assessment which– integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program and discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings; analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and analyzes current trends in global change, both human- induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years.

6. Previous National Climate Assessments Climate Change Impacts on the United States (2000) Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States (2009) 6 3 rd NCA Draft: http://ncadac.globalchange.gov

7. Global Change Information System (GCIS) Long Term Vision: The Global Change Information System (GCIS) is intended to eventually become a unified web based source of authoritative, accessible, usable and timely information about climate and global change for use by scientists, decision makers, and the public. 7

8. Global Change Information System (GCIS) Long Term Vision: The Global Change Information System (GCIS) is intended to eventually become a unified web based source of authoritative, accessible, usable and timely information about climate and global change for use by scientists, decision makers, and the public. Initial Prototype: Coincident with the release of the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA), early 2014, the GCIS will support the distribution, presentation and documentation needs of the NCA, integrating that content into the USGCRP web site (globalchange.gov) and demonstrating the potential for GCIS to support the long term vision. 8

9. Outline for (public draft!) Third NCA Report Letter to the American People Executive Summary: Report Findings Introduction Our Changing Climate Sectors & Sectoral Cross-cuts Regions & Biogeographical Cross-cuts Responses – Decision support – Mitigation – Adaptation Agenda for Climate Change Science The NCA Long-term Process Appendices – Commonly Asked Questions – Expanded Climate Science In fo 9

10. Regions & Biogeographical Cross-Cuts Coasts, Development, and Ecosystems Oceans and Marine Resources

11. Sectors Water Resources Energy Supply and Use Transportation Agriculture Forestry Ecosystems and Biodiversity Human Health

12. Sectoral Cross-Cuts Water, Energy, and Land Use Urban Systems, Infrastructure, and Vulnerability Impacts of Climate Change on Tribal, Indigenous, and Native Lands and Resources Land Use and Land Cover Change Rural Communities Biogeochemical Cycles

13. NCA3 Web Site NCA3 will be integrated with the new revision of the USGCRP globalchange.gov Design goals: – Responsive design compatible with various screen sizes and devices. – Leverages social media to allow users and partners to easily share content and visuals. – Expose all elements of NCA3 through web searchable and downloadable PDF. – Cater to a wide range of users spanning casual public viewers to scientific researchers. – Link to supporting information behind graphics and key messages. 13

14. Information Quality Act Reproducibility means that the information is capable of being substantially reproduced, subject to an acceptable degree of imprecision. For information judged to have more (less) important impacts, the degree of imprecision that is tolerated is reduced (increased). With respect to analytic results, "capable of being substantially reproduced'' means that independent analysis of the original or supporting data using identical methods would generate similar analytic results, subject to an acceptable degree of imprecision or error. Transparency is not defined in the OMB Guidelines, but the Supplementary Information to the OMB Guidelines indicates (p. 8456) that "transparency" is at the heart of the reproducibility standard. The Guidelines state that "The purpose of the reproducibility standard is to cultivate a consistent agency commitment to transparency about how analytic results are generated: the specific data used, the various assumptions employed, the specific analytic methods applied, and the statistical procedures employed. If sufficient transparency is achieved on each of these matters, then an analytic result should meet the reproducibility standard." In other words, transparency - and ultimately reproducibility - is a matter of showing how you got the results you got. 14 http://www.cio.noaa.gov/services_programs/IQ_Guidelines_011812.html

15. Complete Traceability for NCA Content Traceable Sources Traceable Data References Image sources Data sources Link to datasets Complete metadata Traceable Processes Description of methods Access to process info & review Traceable Tools Transparency ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Reproducibility Access to computer code Description of systems and platforms Easier. Harder

16. Data and The National Climate Assessment The Challenge More than 250 named authors (>1000 contributing!) Approximately 1300 pages 30 Chapters 6 Appendices Approximately 300 figures More than 600 images Approximately 83 data sources used across as many as 235 instances* 16

17. Data and The National Climate Assessment The Solution Defined categories of information within the report: – Figure – Image – Data Source Build a process for collecting source information that will satisfy IQA and HISA requirements: – Named sources and contacts for every figure, image, and data source – Web-based survey that requests inputs that address transparency and reproducibility and build a foundation for providing the Metadata ISO 19115 standard – IT infrastructure that connects and promotes automation between the web-based survey, a structured data server (SDS)/GCIS, and publication to an official, interactive NCA web site 17

18. 18 Data and The National Climate Assessment The Solution globalchange.gov website Structured Data Server NCA Resources Site Web Form ATRAC/XML File Generator Metadata Entry

19. Data Set metadata for a figure from the public draft 19

20. GCIS Structured Data Server Capture – Obtain from a variety of sources: manual input by trusted parties – support staff, agency partners, data centers; automated harvesting from publishers, agency data centers, etc. Identify – Assign persistent, resolvable, controlled identifiers to each element. Organize – Capture, discover and represent relationships between elements, including across various types of elements; across data centers; and across agency boundaries. Present – Provide machine accessible interfaces to retrieve structured metadata, and to search/data mine it. Maintain – Develop tools and processes to ensure quality and integrity of database contents over time. http://data.globalchange.gov 20

21. Global Change Content Elements Reports, Figures, Images, Research Papers, Journals, Measurements, Datasets, Instruments, Agencies, Projects, People, Models, Algorithms, … Findings – “Climate is changing.” “Sea Level is Rising.” Concepts: “Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health” “Adaptation” 21

22. 22 Certain types of extreme weather events have become more frequent and intense, including heat waves, floods, and droughts in some regions. The increased intensity of heat waves has been most prevalent in the western parts of the country, while the intensity of flooding events has been more prevalent over the eastern parts. Droughts in the Southwest and heat waves everywhere are projected to become more intense in the future. ATMOSPHERIC/OCEAN INDICATORS > EXTREME WEATHER EXTREME WEATHER > EXTREME PRECIPITATION PRECIPITATION > PRECIPITATION RATE EXTREME WEATHER > HEAT/COLD WAVE FREQUENCY/INTENSITY NATURAL HAZARDS > HEAT NATURAL HAZARDS > FLOODS, PRECIPITATION > PRECIPITATION AMOUNT PRECIPITATION >RAIN SURFACE WATER > FLOODS ATMOSPHERIC PHENOMENA > DROUGHT, EXTREME WEATHER > EXTREME DROUGHT, NATURAL HAZARDS > DROUGHTS GCMD v8.0 Sample finding: Global Change Keywords (GCMD)

23. 23 Machine Accessible Metadata globalchange.gov website Structured Data Server NCA Resources Site Web Form ATRAC/XML File Generator

24. GCIS Database/API 24 RESTful API at data.globalchange.govdata.globalchange.gov URLs correspond to ontology URIs Primary storage : RDBMS (PostgreSQL/PostGIS) Representation is serialized (for JSON) or used in templates (for Turtle) Turtle representation is exported into a triple store (Virtuoso) which provides a SPARQL endpoint.

25. (a) Classes and properties representing a brief structure of the draft NCA3 GCIS Ontology (version 1.2)

26. 26 (b) Classes and properties relevant to the findings of the draft NCA3 and each chapter in it

27. (c) Classes and properties about sensors, instruments, platforms, and algorithms, etc. through which datasets are generated 27

28. 28 A few classes are asserted as sub-classes of PROV-O classes Full GCIS Ontology documents are available at: http://tw.rpi.edu/web/project/gcis-imsap/GCISOntology

29. SPARQL Example http://data.globalchange.gov/examples Find publications from which figure 2.26 (global-slr) in the draft nca3 was derived. select ?y FROM where { gcis:hasImage ?img. ?img prov:wasDerivedFrom ?y } 29

30. 30 Data and GCIS The Future globalchange.gov website Structured Data Server

31. Coordinates Federal research to better understand and prepare the nation for global change Prioritizes and supports cutting edge scientific work in global change Assesses the state of scientific knowledge and the Nation’s readiness to respond to global change Communicates research findings to inform, educate, and engage the global community The Program: U.S. Global Change Research Program 31

32. Two Parallel Paths Traceable Sources Traceable Data References Image sources Data sources Link to datasets Complete metadata Traceable Processes Description of methods Access to process info & review Traceable Tools 1. Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) Access to computer code Description of systems and platforms 2. GCIS

33. Two Parallel Paths Traceable Sources Traceable Data References Image sources Data sources Link to datasets Complete metadata Traceable Processes Description of methods Access to process info & review Traceable Tools 1. NCA3 release Access to computer code Description of systems and platforms 2. Populate GCIS

34. Questions and Comments For more information, visit http://www.globalchange.gov