1. Trends in Northeastern South Carolina’s coastal climate & relationships with regional and global phenomenon Carolinas & Virginia Climate Conference October 20-21, 2009 Wilmington, NC Ginger Ogburn-Matthews USC Baruch Marine Field Laboratory

2. Outline  Site Introduction  Regional Setting: Watersheds  Local Long Term Trends with Regional & Global Relationships  Overview  Needs & Future direction Hobcaw Barony 17,500 acres NorthInletEstuary Winyah Bay Estuary

3. North Inlet Estuary Winyah Bay Estuary Univ. of S.C. Baruch Marine Field Laboratory SC North Inlet – Winyah Bay Nat’l Estuarine Research Reserve (~12,000 acres) Georgetown, SC NSF Long-Term Ecological Research (1981-1992) + NIWB NERR Program (1992-present) = >30 yr databases

4. Long-term continuous time series from North Inlet Estuary, SC Water Chemistry 1978 - present Nitrogen (total whole, total filtered, particulate, ammonia, nitrate-nitrite) Phosphorus (total whole, total filtered, particulate, orthophosphate) Suspended sediment (total, inorganic, organic ) Organic carbon (total, dissolved, particulate) Chlorophyll a Biological Zooplankton (153 & 365 micron) since 1981 Meiobenthos & Macrobenthos since 1974 Nekton (fish, shrimp, & crab) since 1984 Spartina alterniflora (marsh grass) since 1984 Other Marsh elevation & soil chemistry Harmful algae Marsh geomorphology & groundwater dynamics Atmospheric deposition Water Quality 1978 – present Meteorological 1982 – present Water temperature Air temperature Salinity Wind direction and speed Dissolved oxygen Barometric pressure Turbidity, pH Solar radiation Water level (tides) Rain (1978-present) Regional Pee Dee River Discharge Tropical Storms Global North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) ENSO (New ONI V3b ERSST)

5. North Inlet Estuary ~ 4100 acres of tidal marsh > 90% of 38 km 2 watershed in natural condition ~ 50% volume exchange with ocean each cycle salinities usually >30 ppt

6. Winyah Bay Estuary watershed extends to SW VA ~18,000 sq. miles 3 rd largest estuary on east coast 5 rivers drain into the Bay

7. Pee Dee contributes ~80% to the total discharge but has been declining over the years

8. Pee Dee Discharge High N SW North Inlet Winyah Bay Waters enter NI With SW wind, effects magnified

9. Salinity inversely correlated with river discharge ( r=-0.71;p<00001) Esp. strong negative winter & spring (r=-0.84) River discharge is positively correlated to Rain, esp in fall & winter (ft 3 /s)

10. YearDJFJFMFMAMAMAMJMJJJJAJASASOSONONDNDJ 1950-1.7-1.5-1.3-1.4-1.3-1.1-0.8 -0.9 1951-0.9-0.6-0.3-0.20.20.40.7 0.80.70.6 http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml GOM’s ENSO Index from the NWS Climate Prediction Center’s Index Average Values for next year’s Winter (JFM) Correlations

11. GOM’s ENSO Index* with Winter Pee Dee Discharge, Salinity, & Rain: 1981-2008 at North Inlet, SC River Discharge: Positive r=0.34 p=0.08 Salinity: Negative r=-0.34 p=0.07 Rain: Positive r=0.48 p=0.01 No Correlation with Water Temperature * NWS Climate Prediction Center ** Blue Bars = EL Nino Years; 29 yr average=10.0” **Red Bars La Nina years ** NOAA/EarthSystemResearchLab/Physical Sciences Division http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/cathy.smith/best/table33.txt

12. Winter Salinity fluctuations and the timing of ENSO events at North Inlet 1981-2008 Winter El Nino events: stronger the event greater the rainfall and river runoff lower the salinity EL EL- Strongest of Century LA el LA long-term average 31.8ppt * EL = Strong, el = weak EL LA = Strong La Nina, la = weak LA * NOAA/EarthSystemResearchLab/Physical Sciences Division LA Spring Effect

13. Rain: summer increase; total = 6.7 inches y = 0.2228x - 426.43 R 2 =0.15; p=0.04 r=0.44; p=0.01 Rain: No Long-Term trends over the last 31 years, except for…

14. Summer salinity & Number of Tropical Disturbances at North Inlet Summer (& Fall) salinity inversely correlated with: Rainfall and River discharge & frequency of Tropical Disturbances with heavy rain 1111224312 change: -3.2 psu, p = 0.03 11 change: -2.7 psu, p = 0.07 1511 http://www.dnr.sc.gov/climate/sco/Publications/page_tropical_storm_reports.php 1

15. What’s up with Water Temperature? Long-Term Trends? Relationships?

16. Water temperature: significant long-term increase change: + 0.9 o C (+1.6 o F) N= 118 seasons; p= 0.01 change: + 2.1 o C (+3.8 o F) N= 29; p= 0.01 Winter Fall: +1.8 o C p=0.04

17. Spearman Correlation: r=0.44 p=0.02 Linear Regress: R2=0.26; p=0.006 Winter Water Temperature: significant Correlation with NAO Not significant with any other season Publication: DM Allen, V Ogburn-Matthews, T Buck, & EM Smith. 2008. Mesozooplankton Responses to Climate Change and Variability in a Southeastern US Estuary (1981- 2003). Journal of Coastal Research. Special Issue 55: 95-110.

18. Zooplankton sampling site Implications for Biological Effects Fish, shrimp & crab sampling site

19. DecAprJanFebMar 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 Earlier Arrival dates (recruitment) into North Inlet Example: brown shrimp postlarvae - earlier in recent years, long-term trend: r 2 = 0.33 p = 0.001 - positive correlation with water temperature: r = 0.37 p< 0.001

20. Depressed abundances with decreasing summer salinity Example: Total Epibenthic Zooplankton

21. Summary: some changes are evident - decreasing salinity trend due to episodic events winter- spring: increasing frequency of ENSO (rain & river discharge) winter- spring: increasing frequency of ENSO (rain & river discharge) summer-fall: incr rain from incr frequency of tropical storms summer-fall: incr rain from incr frequency of tropical storms *decrease in zooplankton abundance *decrease in zooplankton abundance - overall decreasing river discharge - overall decreasing river discharge - increasing water temperature, especially in winter: significant correlation with NAO index significant correlation with NAO index *earlier ingress of some winter shrimp and fish larvae

22. Needs Assistance with averaging daily wind data for monthly & seasonal analyses (need vectorization)

23. Future direction & other analyses Apr 2002Dec 1985 Include into our long-term analysis: 1.Wind vector data 2.Bermuda High index 3.Gulf stream anomalous temperature data 4.Other suggestions? Any collaborators? Any other long term coastal datasets?

24. Acknowledgements: Thanks to the more than 150 investigators, technical staff, and students who participated in field collections, experiments, sample analysis, data management, and/or interpretation of results over the past 30 years. Special thanks to: Dr. Dennis Allen, P. Kenny, & T. Buck + other past and present staff of the Baruch Institute USC Funding support primarily from: NSF : North Inlet Long-Term Ecological Research Program (1981-1992) NOAA : North Inlet- Winyah Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve (1993 – present) Baruch Marine Field Laboratory, Univ. of SC Georgetown, SC

25. http://links.baruch.sc.edu/Data/index.html Columbia, SC 29208 803-777-7000 info@sc.eduinfo@sc.edu©© University of South Carolina Board of Trustees Baruch Institute has a long history in long- and short-term coastal research from the North Inlet Estuary and nearby coastal systems. The Baruch Institute’s Data Manager’s responsibility is to manage and archive historical data, images, and species lists that are derived from the hundreds of coastal studies and monitoring programs that have taken place since the late 1970s. Databases located on this website have been thoroughly reviewed, documented, and graphed. All databases that are published on this website are archived in hardcopy and compact disk (CD) form at the BMFL. All raw data, when available, have also been archived. Aerial photographs, map products, research photographs, and other images are also available on this website for student, research, or public use. Poster images can be obtained for a fee. Species lists, long-term zooplankton, benthos, and fish field collection lists, and reference specimen lists from the North Inlet Estuary are contained in this website. These estuarine collections and voucher specimens can be utilized at the Baruch Marine Field Laboratory. Ginger Ogburn-Matthews Real Time Water Quality & Weather http://cdmo.baruch.sc.edu/niwKiosk.cfm