1. Synthesis of Arctic System Carbon Cycle Research Through Model-Data Fusion Studies Using Atmospheric Inversion and Process-Based Approaches (SASS PI Meeting – 26-27 March 2006) A. David McGuire Institute of Arctic Biology - University of Alaska Fairbanks

2. Project Participants McGuire - UAF Melillo, Kicklighter, Peterson - MBL McClelland – Texas A&M Follows, Prinn - MIT Zhuang - Purdue

3. Project Overview Background General Questions General Strategy Tasks Time Line Education and Outreach

4. Interactions of High Latitude Ecosystems with the Earth’s Climate System Regional ClimateGlobal Climate High Latitude Ecosystems Impacts Water and energy exchange Exchange of radiatively active gases (CO 2 and CH 4 ) Delivery of freshwater to Arctic Ocean

5. 32-44% of global soil carbon stored in high-latitudes

6. Land Atmosphere CO 2 CH 4 Arctic Ocean DOC, DIC, POC Permafrost CO 2 Pacific Ocean Atlantic Ocean Total C Key Fluxes of Carbon in the Arctic System

7. General Questions Guiding Research 1. What are the geographic patterns of fluxes of CO 2 and CH 4 over the Pan-Arctic region and how is the balance changing over time? (Spatial Patterns and Temporal Variability) 2. What processes control the sources and sinks of CO 2 and CH 4 over the Pan-Arctic region and how do the controls change with time? (Processes and Interactions)

8. Arctic Terrestrial and Marine Ecosystems Observations of Arctic System CO 2 and CH 4 dynamics: - experiments - fluxes - inventories - disturbance regimes - remote sensing - atmospheric and marine concentrations Process-based estimates of Arctic System CO 2 and CH 4 dynamics Atmospheric inversion estimates of Arctic System CO 2 and CH 4 dynamics General Strategy: Model-Data Fusion

9. Tasks 1. Conduct model-data fusion studies with process-based models of various components of high latitude terrestrial C dynamics including a. Terrestrial CO 2 (McGuire lead) and CH 4 exchange (Zhuang lead), and b. Transfer of C from high latitude terrestrial ecosystems to the mouth of rivers in the Pan-Arctic Drainage Basin (Melillo/Peterson/McClelland/Kicklighter lead) 2. Conduct model-data fusion studies with a process-based model of marine CO 2 exchange in oceans adjacent to the high latitude terrestrial regions (Follows lead) 3. Improve atmospheric inversions of CO 2 and CH 4 across high latitude regions through better incorporation of data and process-understanding on CO 2 and CH 4 dynamics (Prinn lead). 4. Project synthesis (All).

10. Vegetation type;Snow pack; Soil moisture Soil temperature Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) couples biogeochemistry and soil thermal dynamics Tool for Process-Based Terrestrial CO 2 Exchange

11. Observed and simulated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations at Mould Bay Station, Canada (-119.35 o W, 76.25 o N) during the 1980s -75 -60 -45 -30 -15 0 10 25 g C m -2 yr -1 Sink Source 90° 60° 30° Spatial patterns of change in vegetation carbon over the twenty year period spanning from 1980-2000 as simulated by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) Strategy to evaluate seasonal exchange of carbon dioxide simulated by terrestrial biosphere models Incorporation of freeze-thaw dynamics into the Terrestrial Ecosystem model improves the simulation of the seasonal and decadal exchange of carbon dioxide exchange with the atmosphere (Zhuang, Euskirchen, McGuire, Melillo, Romanovsky)

12. Soil Thermal Module (STM) Hydrological Module (HM) Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) Methane Consumption and Emission Module (MCEM) Soil Temperature Profile Active Layer Depth Water Table and Soil Moisture Profile Labile carbon Vegetation Characteristics 40 35 20 10 0 –1 SourceSink (g CH 4 m -2 year -1 ) Tool for Process-Based Terrestrial CH 4 Exchange

13. Atmospheric CH 4 Concentration (A M ) Ebullition (E B ) Plant- Mediated Emission (P M ) Diffusion (D SA ) Methane Consumption and Emission Module (Oxic Soil) CH 4 Consumption (M C ) (Anoxic Soil) CH 4 Production (M P ) Water Table Lower Boundary Soil / Water Surface Upper Boundary (Zhuang et al., 2004 GBC)

14. Net Methane Fluxes in the 1990s Net Methane Fluxes = 49 Tg CH 4 yr -1 Emissions = 56 Tg CH 4 yr -1 Consumption = -7 Tg CH 4 yr -1 (Zhuang et al., 2004GBC)

15. Vegetation Soil Organic Matter Soil Inorganic Carbon CO 2(g) abvR CO 2(aq) HCO 3 - CO 3 -2 rootR RHRH CO 2 (g) Alkalinity CO 2(aq) Shaded area = Modified TEM soilR DOC Stream Export CO 2 (g) Chemical Weathering POC GPP erodePOC leachDOC harvest leachCO2leachALK evadeCO2 fire Tool for Transfer of C from Land to Ocean

16. U. S. Geological Survey: National Research Program National Stream Quality Accounting Network District Offices AK, CA, GA, OR, TX, WI Alaska Science Center Universities: Florida State University University of Southern Mississippi Yale University With thanks to: Environment Canada Water Survey of Canada Yukon Territorial Government Alaska Inter-Tribal Council Alaska Department of Fish and Game Bureau of Land Management National Park Service U S Fish and Wildlife Service Citizen Volunteers Yukon River Project Participants

17. 2002 between Eagle and Stevens Village 2003 between Stevens Village and Pilot Station 2004 between Whitehorse, Canada, and Eagle

18. 0.36 Tg C 12 km 3 0.79 Tg C 24 km 3 2.63 Tg C 76 km 3 3.63 Tg C 104 km 3 6.55 Tg C 188 km 3 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 PorcupineRiver Tanana River Yukon River at Eagle Yukon River at Stevens Village Yukon River at Pilot Station Flux (g C yr -1 x 10 12 ) DIC PIC DOC POC Total C Export Total Water Discharge Carbon Flux, Water Year 2002

19. Annual DOC Leaching from Contemporary Ecosystems in the Yukon River Watershed during the 1990s 0120.5481622 g C m -2 yr -1 TEM 6.0 Total: 1.0 Tg C yr -1 or 1.15 g C m -2 yr -1

20. PARTNERS Rivers Riverkm 3 /y Mackenzie 308 Yukon 200 Kolyma 132 Lena 525 Yenisey620 Ob’ 404

21. Tools for Ocean C Transfers MIT Ocean Circulation Model MIT Ocean Biogeochemistry Model

22. Physical Framework MITgcm Global configuration, 1/4 o resolution Cubed-sphere grid configuration Polar oceans resolved, dynamic ice model Dimitris Menemenlis (JPL), Chris Hill (MIT) et al.

23. Physical model – flow speed

25. Current Ocean Biogeochemistry Model Explicit C, P, O, Fe, Alk (Ca) cycles Prognostic variables DIC, O 2, PO4, DOP, Fe T, Alk Air-sea exchange of CO2, O2 DOC – linked to DOP with fixed stoichiometry –No continental sources –“Semi-labile”, 6 month lifetime Simple parameterization of export production (P, Fe, light limitation) Optional explicit ecosystem (2 phytoplankton classes, single grazer, explicit Si cycle) Physics – coarse res, generally no Arctic Ocean!

26. Previous work: Interannual variability of air-sea CO 2 flux Ocean model McKinley et al. (2004) Atmospheric inverse model Bousquet et al. (2000)

27. This work: Biogeochemistry “Offline” model driven by ECCO2 physics Hemispheric configuration Estimate air-sea fluxes, distributions, etc 1992 – 2001 Continental sources/treatment of DOC, DIC Explore sensitivity to lifetime of DOC Simple export production model (explicit ecosystem)

28. Tool for Atmospheric Inversions of CO2 and CH4 MATCH: Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry

29. Inverse Modeling Air Parcel Sources Sinks transport Sample solved for modeled observed

30. Dargaville, McGuire, and Rayner 2002 (Climatic Change)

31. Figure 2. MATCH simulates effect of North Atlantic Oscillation on CH 4 AGAGE observations (red) versus MATCH (black) at MaceHead, Ireland NAO (+) winds NAO (-) winds MIRROR PLOT Ref: Chen & Prinn, 2005; Chen, 2004

32. Time Line of Research First Year – Organize data sets and finish up any necessary model development Second Year – Conduct model-data fusion studies with the models Third Year – Project Synthesis

33. Education and Outreach Undergraduate and Graduate Curriculum Courses MIT Course on Global Climate Change Undergraduate, Graduate, and Postdoc Research Graduate Students – Purdue MIT – UROP Postdocs – UAF, MIT Public Outreach Presentations: Policy Meetings/Workshops MIT Global Change Forum MIT Knight Science Journalism Fellows

34. End of slideshow