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TURKISH OILSEEDS &VEGOILS OUTLOOK September 09, 2014, HILTON KIEV, UKRAINE BLACK SEA OIL TRADE-2014
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STRUCTURE OF PRESENTATION 1-Turkish AgriFacts 2 – Turkish Oilseeds Outlook 3- Turkish Vegoils Outlook 4 – 2014/15 Season Projections 5- Presentation Summary
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Turkish AgriFacts Source: www.fanack.com
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POPULATION : 76.667.864 ( 2013 update ) TOTAL AREA : 783.562 km 2 AGRICULTURAL AREA : 238.110 km 2 ( 30% ) ( 23.811 Thd Ha ) AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT RATE : 25% MAIN CROPS: Wheat ( 15-20 Mln T ), Sugar Beet ( 15-17 Mln T ), Barley ( 4–7 Mln T ), Corn ( 4-5 Mln T ), Cotton ( 2-3 Mln T ), Sunflower ( 1-1.5 Mln T ) and Paddy Rice ( 750 – 1.000 kmt ) etc.
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TURKISH OILSEEDS OUTLOOK
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TURKISH OILSEEDS PRODUCTION( 1000 TONS )
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IN 2013/14 SEASON; TURKEY RAISED APPROX. 2.7 MLN T OF OILSEEDS. SUNFLOWERSEED WAS THE BIGGEST RAISED OILSEED WITH 55% SHARE.
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TURKISH OILSEEDS CRUSHINGS ( 1000 TONS )
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IN 2013/14 SEASON; TURKEY CRUSHED APPROX. 3.85 MLN T OF OILSEEDS. SUNFLOWERSEED WAS THE BIGGEST CRUSHED OILSEED WITH 55% SHARE.
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TURKEY HAS AROUND 8.0 MLN T OF CRUSHING CAPACITY BUT ONLY HALF-CAPACITY USAGE
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TURKISH OILSEEDS IMPORTS ( 1000 TONS )
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IN 2013 CALENDAR YEAR; TURKEY IMPORTED APPROX. 2.07 MLN T OF OILSEEDS. AND PAID AROUND 1.27 MILLIARD USD SOYBEANS WAS THE BIGGEST OILSEED WITH 52% SHARE.
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IN 2013 CALENDAR YEAR; MAJOR 3 ORIGINS AS PER OILSEEDS ; SOYBEAN; USA, Paraguay, Ukraine SUNSEED; Bulgaria, Moldova, Romania RAPESEED; Bulgaria, Russia, Ukraine COTTONSEED; Greece LINSEED/CAMELINA ; Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan
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IN 2013 CALENDAR YEAR; TURKEY EXPORTED ALMOST NIL OF OILSEEDS EXCEPT SOME HYBRID SALES AND INSIGNIFICANT NEIGHBOOR PARTIES.
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TURKISH VEGOILS OUTLOOK
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TURKISH VEGOILS PRODUCTION ( 1000 TONS )
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IN 2013/14 SEASON; TURKEY PRODUCED APPROX. 1.49 MLN T OF VEGOILS. SUNOIL WAS THE MOST PRODUCED VEGOIL WITH 60% SHARE.
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TURKISH LIQUID VEGOILS CONSUMPTION ( 1000 TONS )
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IN 2013/14 SEASON; TURKEY CONSUMED APPROX. 1.22 MLN T OF LIQUID VEGOILS. SUNFLOWER OIL WAS THE MOST CONSUMED VEGOIL WITH OVER 75% SHARE.
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TURKISH VEGOILS IMPORTS ( 1000 TONS )
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IN 2013 CALENDAR YEAR; TURKEY IMPORTED APPROX. 1.39 MLN T OF VEGOILS. AND PAID AROUND 1.6 MILLIARD USD SUNOIL WAS THE BIGGEST IMPORTED VEGOIL WITH 45% SHARE.
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IN 2013 CALENDAR YEAR; MAJOR 3 ORIGINS AS PER VEGOILS ; SUNOIL; Russia, Ukraine, Bosnia-Herseq PALMOIL; Indonesia, Malaysia PALMKERNEL OIL; Indonesia, Malaysia CORNOIL; USA, Spain, France SOYOIL ; Ukraine, Romania, USA
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TURKISH VEGOILS EXPORTS ( 1000 TONS )
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IN 2013 CALENDAR YEAR; TURKEY EXPORTED APPROX. 710 KMT OF VEGOILS. AND GOT AROUND 1.18 MILLIARD USD SUNOIL WAS THE BIGGEST EXPORTED VEGOIL WITH 80% SHARE.
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IN 2013 CALENDAR YEAR; MAJOR 3 DESTINATIONS AS PER VEGOILS ; SUNOIL; Iraq, Syria, Lebanon CORNOIL; Libya, Israel, Iran SOYOIL ; Turkish Cyprus, Iraq, Sudan OLIVEOIL; USA, Spain, Italy
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MARGARINE IN 2013; TURKEY PRODUCED AROUND 725 KMT, TURKEY CONSUMED AROUND 570 KMT ( 415 KMT INDUSTRIAL, 115 KMT BREAKFAST, 40 KMT GHEE-TYPE ) TURKEY EXPORTED AROUND 155 KMT Source: MUMSAD
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TURKEY HAS AROUND 4.0 MLN T OF REFINING CAPACITY AND 1.0 MLN T OF MARGARINE CAPACITY
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IMPORT DUTY RATES FOR MAJOR OILSEEDS/VEGOILS; Sunseed, 27%, but not less than 216 $/mt ( 800 $/mt reference price x 0.27 ) Soybean, 0%, Rapeseed, 10%, Crude Sunoil, 36%, but not less than 540 $/mt ( 1.500 $/mt reference price x 0.36 ) Refined Sunoil, 50%, but not less than 1.000 $/mt ( 2.000 $/mt reference price x 0.36 ) Other Vegoils, 31.2%
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2014/15 SEASON PROJECTIONS FOR SUNSEED AND SUNOIL
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TURKEY WILL RAISE 1.250 KMT OF SUNSEED NEW-CROP SIZE VS RECORD 1.500 KMT OF 2013/14 IN SPITE OF QUITE IDEAL SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS. MAIN REASON OF CROP REDUCTION WAS BEING LESS LUCRATIVE VS GRAINS, SO ACREAGE LOWERED TO 530 KHA VS 690 KHA IN 2013/14 SEASON.
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TURKISH LOCAL SUNOIL CONSUMPTION WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST 1.000 KMT VS 975 KMT ( 950 EDIBLE + 25 TECHNICAL ) OF 2013/14 WITH INCREASING POPULATION, MORE TOURISTS ( AROUND 35 MLN IN 2013 ) AND SOME SHIFTS FROM OTHER VEGOILS.
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TURKISH SUNOIL EXPORTS WILL GET LOWER TO AROUND 600 KMT VS 685 KMT ( 460 IRAQ + 225 OTHERS ) OF 2013/14 WITH GEOPOLITICAL CONFLICTS IN IRAQ AND SYRIA AND SO LESS INTERNATIONAL TENDERS BY IRAQ GOVERNMENT.
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FINAL BALANCE Turkish Local Sunoil Consumption 1.000 kmt Turkish Sunoil Exports 600 kmt Total Sunoil Demand 1.600 kmt Local Sunoil Production ( 1.250 kmt x 0.42 ) 525 kmt Shortage 1.075 kmt Such shortage will be met by Sunseed and Sunoil imports.
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TURKISH SUNSEED IMPORTS WILL BE AROUND 900 KMT VS 600 KMT OF 2013/14, MAINLY FROM MOLDOVA AND PARTLY FROM BULGARIA, ROMANIA, UKRAINE AND RUSSIA.
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TURKISH SUNOIL IMPORTS WILL BE AROUND 700 KMT VS 795 KMT OF 2013/14, MAINLY FROM RUSSIA AND PARTLY FROM UKRAINE AND BOSNIA ( 0% IMPORT-DUTY )
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PRESENTATION SUMMARY
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Turkish Agricultural Employment Rate is around 25%. Sunflower is the most important oilseed of Turkey. Turkey is net importer for oilseeds and vegoils, so paid 2.87 Milliard USD totally ( even 3.68 Milliard USD including Oilmeals ) in 2013 calendar year. Turkey will raise 1.25 Mln T ( vs record 1.5 Mln T in 2013/14 ) of Sunseed new-crop size in 2014/15 season. Turkey will import 900 kmt ( vs 600 kmt in 2013/14 ) of Sunseed in 2014/15 season. Turkey will import 700 kmt ( vs record 795 kmt in 2013/14 ) of SunOil in 2014/15 season. Turkey will export 600 kmt ( vs record 685 kmt in 2013/14 ) of SunOil in 2014/15 season.
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Great thanks
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