1. 1 Contemporary Developments in Nepal & Options for India Dr. Rahul Tripathi & Joel D’Silva South Asia Together – ICG, Goa.

2. 2 Structure of the Presentation  Nepal – Brief Historical Background.  Democratic experience and Maoist resurgence.  Build up to the recent crisis.  India’s dilemmas and options.  Challenges ahead

3. 3 Nepal Brief Historical Background  Evolution of Monarchy  The Rana Regime (1846-1952)  Panchayat Democracy (1960-1990)  Return to parliamentary democracy (1990-2005)

4. 4 Prithvi Narayan Shah ShumsherJung Bahadur Rana Birendra Bir Bikram Shah Dev

5. 5 Nature of Nepalese Society  Predominantly Hindu (90%)  Major ethnic groups a. Tibeto-Burman migrants (hills & mountains) b. Indo-Aryans (plains, Terai ) c. Newari (original people – Katmandu Valley)  Prevalence of Indo-Aryan caste hierarchy

6. 6 Nature of Nepalese Economy  Among the poorest & least developed countries  Agriculture provides 80% of employment & 41% of GDP  Unemployment 50% approx.  Economic growth – 0.8% (1960-1990) and 2.1% (1990-2003)

7. 7 Democratic Experience & Maoist Resurgence  Turbulent parliamentary Democracy in 1990’s.  Emergence of Maoists in mid- 90’s.  40 point demand on Nationalism (9), People’s democracy (17) & Livelihood (14).  Armed struggle

8. 8 Girija Prasad KoiralaPrachandaDr. Baburam Bhattarai The Maoists

9. 9 Spread of Maoism Nepal (1990’s) Nepal (2006)

10. 10 Build up to the recent crisis  The crisis of Monarchy a. The Palace massacre (2001) b. The ‘activist’ & ‘unpopular’ monarch. c. Clamp down on freedoms  Dismissal of the Government & proclamation of emergency  7 party alliance (SPA) & Public protests  Restoration of Parliament

11. 11 Prince Paras King Gyanendra Bir Bikram Shah Dev Violent Protests

12. 12 India’s Dilemmas and Options  Nepal's special status with India  The ‘Ugly’ Indian  The ‘Indispensable’ Indian  India’s response a. From ‘twin pillar theory’ to ‘people’s will’. b. Maoist concern

13. 13 Dr. Karan SinghShyam Saran PM Manmohan Singh

14. 14 Challenges Ahead  Political parties – consensus building  Maoists – Joining the mainstream?  King – ‘Uncertain Future’  India – ‘Ever Balancer’

15. 15 Picture Sources: National Geographic Outlook Magazine Wikipedia