1. Proposed EEA approach to establish an environmental- compatible wind energy potential in Europe Hans Eerens MNP Netherlands Copenhagen 9 November 2006

2. Hans Eerens, Work Programme2 This study Focus EU-25; preferable NUTS-2 Focus on land availability & technology development GIS approach Use survey/questionnaire for data environmental constraints (value oriented) Final results: –Wind power density map (based on ECMWF wind fields) –Environmental constraint supply curve per nuts region –Various scenarios up to 2030

3. Hans Eerens, Work Programme3 Potential for Renewables… see De Noord et al, Potentials and costs for renewable electricity generation adapted from Andre Wakker, ECN Theoretical potential Technical potential Realistic potential Realisable potential Economic potential ECMWF 40-year reanalyzed, wind speed data (2006), CORINE landcover, workshop recommendations e.g. Wind turbine characteristics, ecofys proposal, workshop recommendations planning, public acceptance, market barriers, environmental contraints: Questionnaire, workshop recommendations Lead times, growth rates of technology, scenario assumptions: Climate action scenario EEA, workshop recommendations policies and subsidies, GREEN-X (Environment) model, Technical University Vienna Competition with substitutes e.g. fossil Sensitivities environmental-compatible wind energy potential

4. Hans Eerens, Work Programme4 Previous global study; land-use constraints Wind regime (unattractive) Land-use function (too much interference) Altitude (Elevation too high)  ar, technical losses Wind park infrastructure, e.g. roads Power density (MW km -2 ) Available area (km2) Urban Area (population too dense) MW Bioreserves (protected) Hoogwijk, Utrecht, 2004 Social constraints

5. Hans Eerens, Work Programme5 Theoretical potential ECMWF data from the 40 year reanalyzed data project (finished january 2006): –Windspeed (high time- and spatial resolution)  annual average wind speed, weibull characteristics (K, A) for 5 different years –Roughness Scaled to 80 m height

6. Hans Eerens, Work Programme6 Data Corine landcover data (Resolution 100-250 m) 1ARTIFICIAL SURFACES 11URBAN FABRIC 110 111CONTINIOUS URBAN FABRIC 112DISCONTINUOUS URBAN FABRIC 12INDUSTRIAL, COMMERCIAL AND TRANSPORT UNITS 121INDUSTRIAL OR COMMERCIAL UNTS 122ROAD AND RAILNETWORKS AND ASSOCIATED LAND 123PORT AREAS 124AIRPORTS 13MINE. DUMP AND CONSTRUCTION SITES 131MINERAL EXTRACTION SITES 132DUMP SITES 133CONSTRUCTION SITES 14ARTIFICIAL NON-AGRICULTURAL VEGETATED AREAS 141GREEN URBAN AREAS 142SPORT AND LEISURE FACILITIES 2AGRICULTURAL AREAS 21ARABLE LAND 211NON-IRRIGATED ARABLE LAND 212PERMANENTLY IRRIGATED LAND 213RICE FIELDS 22PERMANENT CROPS 221VINEYARDS 222FRUIT TREES AND BERRY PLANTATIONS 223OLIVE GROVES 23PASTURES 231PASTURES 24HETEROGENEOUS AGRICULTURAL AREAS 241ANNUAL CROPS ASSOCIATED WITH PERMANENT CROPS 242COMPLEX CULTIVATION PATTERNS 243LAND PRINCIPALLY OCCUPIED BY AGRICULTURE, WITH SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF NATURAL VEGETATION 244AGRO-FORESTRY AREAS

7. Hans Eerens, Work Programme7 Proposed excel structure (on-shore)

8. Hans Eerens, Work Programme8 “Bottom-up” approach: proposal for a benchmark to derive a minimum value of an environmental compatible wind energy potential in Europe Use CORINE landcover data to classify the existing sites for wind turbines in Denmark, Germany and Spain. Derive percentage land-use cover per category, compare overlapping land categories. Use average/maximum value per category to calculate available land for each European country. Use wind power supply curves and wind-turbine characterictics to calculate potential for 2020-2030. Define offshore potential for various combinations of sea-depths and land-distance thresholds.

9. Hans Eerens, Work Programme9 Questions for the workshop participants (I) What can EEA do to answer the question: “Establish an environmental compatible wind energy potential for Europe for 2020-2030” Proposed calculation methodology sound?, alternatives?, will results have added value to existing knowledge? Biodiversity/Natura 2000 sites: do we need a special sensitivity case to estimate effect on potential when excluded? Proposed bottom-up approach: –country data available? –Can the current land-use of wind turbines in Denmark, Germany and Spain serve as a benchmark to derive a minimum value for an environmental compatible wind-energy potential for all European countries, using CORINE landcover data and ECMWF meteorological data? Offshore: restrictions at sea (e.g. ship routes, fishing, oil-, gas-, sand etc winning, coastal line, nature protection (e.g. wadden sea)), how to handle?

10. Hans Eerens, Work Programme10 Questions for the workshop participants (II) Presentation of results, proposals?, proposals for specific sensitivity analyse ? Recommendations how to organize review proces?

11. Hans Eerens, Work Programme11 Thank You!