1. ©NIDEA 1 Natalie Jackson The demographic forces shaping service provision - and demand Professor of Demography, National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA) Natalie Jackson Demographics Ltd Presentation to WasteMINZ ROUNDUP 2014, Queenstown April 3 rd 2014

2. ©NIDEA 2 Population ageing – what does it mean for WasteMINZ? The demographic forces shaping our future – More elderly than children – Fewer labour market entrants than exits – More deaths than births > the end of growth – Urban agglomeration versus subnational population decline Regional impacts of demographic and economic change (Nga Tangata Oho Mairangi) - MBIE The subnational mechanisms of the ending of growth – towards a theory of depopulation (Tai Timu Tangata, Taihoa e ) – Marsden Jackson (forthcoming) Planning for a demographically-tight labour market - New Zealand’s ageing occupations and industries

3. ©NIDEA 3 Population ageing – New Zealand style 14.2% aged 65+8.6 % 65+ years Me

4. ©NIDEA 4 The Big Picture

5. ©NIDEA 5 The very big picture *US Census Bureau International Database; Statistics NZ 2012 Projected subnational population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2006(base)-2031 [2012 Update]

6. ©NIDEA 6 Drilling down Statistics NZ 2012 Projected subnational population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2006(base)-2031 [2012 Update]

7. ©NIDEA 7 Ageing-driven growth is not the same as youth-driven growth Source: Statistics NZ 2012 Projected population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2011(base)-2061

8. ©NIDEA 8 New Zealand - more elderly than children within 12 years Projected Source: Statistics NZ 2012 Projected population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2011(base)-2061 Already crossed over in 22% TAs

9. ©NIDEA 9 Between 2011 and 2031 all growth in 56 (84%) Territorial Authority Areas is projected to be at 65+ years; all are projected to see overall decline at 0- 64 years : Only 11 TAs escape this scenario Growth will end in most TAs Ageing-driven growth

10. ©NIDEA 10 2013 Census 2006-2013: Auckland accounted for 52% of growth Auckland plus 11 cities accounted for 75% of growth Elsewhere - patchy growth, widespread/ deepening decline Of 1971 census area units with resident populations in 2006, 35% declined (647) or had zero growth (39) The data confirm past trends / mixed futures..

11. ©NIDEA 11 2001-2006 End of growth / depopulation not a new issue, but it is spreading and its cause is changing Old form of decline = net migration loss (was resolvable) New form of decline = net migration loss plus natural decline (self-reinforcing)

12. ©NIDEA 12 This disparate situation is projected to continue Source: Statistics New Zealand, Subnational Population Projections: 2006(base)–2031 (October 2012 update)

13. ©NIDEA 13 Enter - the demographically-tight labour market -Baby Boomer Retirement (NZ 1 mill.) -Competition for labour supply -Between industries (incl. education), regions, countries..

14. ©NIDEA 14 NZ: 28,000 fewer school leavers over the next 10 years Source: Statistics NZ 2012 Projected population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2011(base)-2061 What do these trends mean for your industry?

15. ©NIDEA 15..it is happening - fewer school leavers are coming to a town near you

16. ©NIDEA 16..it will get worse before it gets better – and then the respite will be patchy

17. ©NIDEA 17 Already fewer younger than older employed workers

18. ©NIDEA 18 Goodbye youth unemployment

19. ©NIDEA 19 Enter ageing workforces - Source: The Economist, April 9 2011

20. ©NIDEA 20 New Zealand Employed Labour Force 1996, 2013 (+22.7%) Source: Statistics New Zealand Customised Occupation Database 11.5% 27:10 9:10 Ratio 15-29: 55+ years: 1996 = 27:10; 2006 = 9:10 In 2013, Boomers aged 48-67 years

21. ©NIDEA 21 New Zealand’s Refuse Collectors 1996, 2013 (+19.9%) Source: Statistics New Zealand Customised Occupation Database 9% 32:10 10:10 Ratio 15-29: 55+ years: 1996 = 32:10; 2006 = 10:10 National workforce 2013: 23.6% 55+ years

22. ©NIDEA 22 New Zealand’s Heavy Truck/Tanker Drivers 1996, 2013 (+6.7%) Source: Statistics New Zealand Customised Occupation Database 9% 28:10 4:10 Ratio 15-29: 55+ years: 1996 = 28:10; 2006 = 4:10 National workforce 2013: 23.6% 55+ years

23. ©NIDEA 23 NZ’s Senior Government Administrators 1996-2013 (+140%) Source: Statistics New Zealand Customised Industry Database 16% 7:104:10 National workforce 2013: 23.6% 55+ years Ratio 15-29: 55+ years: 1996 =7:10; 2013 = 4: 10

24. ©NIDEA 24 Specialised Managers 1996-2013 (+72%) Source: Statistics New Zealand Customised Industry Database 12% 14:106:10 National workforce 2013: 23.6% 55+ years Ratio 15-29: 55+ years: 1996 =14:10; 2013 = 6: 10

25. ©NIDEA 25 Growing competition - -hello increasing labour costs

26. ©NIDEA 26 There will be increasing competition generally The Economist, April 9 th 2011

27. ©NIDEA 27 Regional competition

28. ©NIDEA 28 Regions - ageing rapidly – who you ‘gonna call? 65+ years: 16.4% (11.7%) 65+ years: 25.6% (19%)

29. ©NIDEA 29 Regions differ markedly – Auckland OK, Christchurch.. ?? 65+ years: 11.2% (10.1%) 65+ years: 14.9% (13.4%)

30. ©NIDEA 30 Most TA’s will soon have fewer labour market entrants than exits Observed Projected Source: Statistics New Zealand, Estimated Resident Population;(1996-2013) ;Subnational Population Projections: 2006(base)–2031 (October 2012 update) Hamilton?

31. ©NIDEA 31 Population ageing is here to stay It is coming to a WasteMINZ service near you It will drive down labour supply and drive up labour costs It will see the permanent end of growth / onset of depopulation in most rural areas We urgently need to rethink most types of service delivery (and demand) Accept Buffer Collaborate/Conserve Time to rethink demand/service delivery

32. ©NIDEA 32 Thankyou natalie.jackson@waikato.ac.nz www.waikato.ac.nz/nidea