1. Understanding Habitat Use & Selection & Applications in Management Planning (or how do we get from this [GPS collar] to this [PTP doc] Pamela Hengeveld S8M Sheep Project Steering Committee Meeting Fort St John BC, October 17 2008

2. Vision Statement “To achieve and maintain a sustainable sheep population distributed across their historic range in the northeast while providing management direction for human activity to occur in a manner that is compatible with sheep conservation and with the wilderness values of the region”

3. Components in Original Work Plan Baseline Research & Inventory Population Demographics Habitat Use & Selection Ewe Survival & Mortality Factors Herd Health Traditional Knowledge / Community Knowledge Risk Assessment & Adaptive Management (AM) Modeling (using what we know to make predictions about potential impacts) Experimentation (AM trials to test predictions and refine methods) Policy Development Management Guidelines Monitoring Protocols S8M Stone’s Sheep Project Funding 2008/2009 SCEK (Yr 2 of 3) HCTF (Yr 1 of 3) Trans Canada (Yr 4 of 5) MEMPR (Yr 4) Identifying links between research outputs and management plans PTP Amendment Deadline December 2010

4. Sound understanding of Stone’s sheep ecology and status in the S8M area, based on scientific research, TK, CK Provide information that is useful as a decision-making tool Relevant to current management concerns and plans Links between research outputs and management plans? S8M Stone’s Sheep Project Outcomes SCOPE RESPONSIBILITIES OPPORTUNITIES ensure that we all have the same expectations and end product in mind

5. Habitat “Conditions and resources present in an area that produce occupancy (including survival and reproduction) by an organism” Hall et al. 1997 Life Requisites DisplacementMortality Competition Escape terrain Movement corridors (trails to licks and seasonal ranges) Mineral Licks Forage (type, quality)

6. Describes where animals are Home range size Seasonal ranges Movement corridors Special features (e.g., mineral licks) Habitat Use Habitat Selection Insight to why animals are where they are – what are sheep keying in on that’s affecting their distribution? Statistically rigorous method for quantifying habitats that are selected and those that are avoided Statistically rigorous method for quantifying habitats that are selected and those that are avoided Measuring preference based on use vs availability Measuring preference based on use vs availability Defensible decision-making tool because it is non-subjective, transparent, reproducible Defensible decision-making tool because it is non-subjective, transparent, reproducible

7. Habitat Selection Methods Models: Simplified descriptions of how we think a system works Life Requisites DisplacementMortality Competition Vegetation type + Aspect + Slope + Elevation + Ruggedness + Predation Risk

8. Describe how we think the system works -> habitat models of influential factors affecting sheep distribution, then use data to test the models Multiple types of statistical analyses possible Resource Selection Functions (used in Besa-Prophet) Habitat Selection Methods #Vegetation type + # Aspect + # Slope + # Elevation + # Ruggedness + # Predation Risk

10. PTP Key Features Hierarchical planning: Strategic to site-level planning Results-Oriented Framework No prescribed “rules” for implementation, just specified outcomes No prescribed “rules” for implementation, just specified outcomes Continual Improvement through Adaptive Management (AM) AM = systematic approach to learning from outcomes of management actions designed to generate reliable feedback and clarify reasons underlying the outcomes AM = systematic approach to learning from outcomes of management actions designed to generate reliable feedback and clarify reasons underlying the outcomesResult: Flexible, innovative, systematic learning Flexible, innovative, systematic learning Follows national (CSA) standards, relevant to certification processes (e.g., Sustainable Forest Mgmt Plan as model for socially and environmentally-oriented management plans) Follows national (CSA) standards, relevant to certification processes (e.g., Sustainable Forest Mgmt Plan as model for socially and environmentally-oriented management plans)

11. PTP Management & Monitoring Results-based Mgmt Framework Criterion Element Objective Indicator Target Strategic Operational Tactical PTP Outputs O&G Industry Proponent Dvlpmt Plans, Records, Reports Monitoring Baseline Implementation (Tracking Compliance) Effectiveness Validation Best Mgmt Practices Access Mgmt Roles & Responsibilities Adaptive Management CIMF

12. PTP Management & Monitoring Results-based Mgmt Framework Criterion Element Objective Indicator Target Strategic Operational Tactical Conservation of Biological Diversity The structure, function and distribution of Stone’s sheep winter habitat, population and behaviours remain in a natural range Proportion and amount of disturbance (% and ha) by winter habitat classes <2% of moderately high to high capability winter habitat is disturbed Conservation of Species Diversity What is the likelihood of effectiveness in meeting stated objective? Opportunities for improvement: ambiguity in the language/definitions, no clear measurable link between indicator and objective, winter range only, physical ground disturbance only.

13. What is Disturbance? Appropriate Measures? Physical (ground) disturbance Physical (ground) disturbance Zone of influence (“buffers”) Zone of influence (“buffers”) Permanent vs long-term vs temporary disturbance (“natural state”) Permanent vs long-term vs temporary disturbance (“natural state”) Cumulative effects Cumulative effects Uncertainties (e.g., climate change) Uncertainties (e.g., climate change) May need different types of targets for different types of disturbance May need different types of targets for different types of disturbance

14. Models Simplified descriptions of how we think a system works Displacement factors Aircraft over-flights Flight path and frequency Vehicle and machinery noise Road and cutblock proximity Human presence Proximity to recreational areas Competition factors Not currently modeled Mortality factors Concentrated goat harvest Site access Predation risk Bear, wolf, wolverine density Habitat Supply Modeling in the Mackenzie TSA: MOUNTAIN GOAT Life Requisites DisplacementMortality Competition

15. S8M Research Scope research outcomes -> mgmt plans Responsibilities relative to PTP Opportunities relative to PTP

16. PTP Management & Monitoring Results-based Mgmt Framework Criterion Element Objective Indicator Target Strategic Operational Tactical PTP Outputs O&G Industry Proponent Dvlpmt Plans, Records, Reports Monitoring Baseline Implementation (Tracking Compliance) Effectiveness Validation Best Mgmt Practices Access Mgmt Roles & Responsibilities Adaptive Management CIMF Research Input

17. S8M Research Scope research outcomes -> mgmt plans Responsibilities S8M PTP Indicators and Targets relevant to Stone’s sheep conservation. Mountain goats? B-P PTP? S8M PTP Indicators and Targets relevant to Stone’s sheep conservation. Mountain goats? B-P PTP? Review and recommend BMPs relevant to Stone’s sheep conservation. Mountain goats? Review and recommend BMPs relevant to Stone’s sheep conservation. Mountain goats?

18. S8M Research Scope research outcomes -> mgmt plans Responsibilities S8M PTP Indicators and Targets relevant to Stone’s sheep conservation. Mountain goats? B-P PTP? S8M PTP Indicators and Targets relevant to Stone’s sheep conservation. Mountain goats? B-P PTP? Review and recommend BMPs relevant to Stone’s sheep conservation. Mountain goats? Review and recommend BMPs relevant to Stone’s sheep conservation. Mountain goats?Given: Limited to Oil and Gas (excluding geophysical activities) Limited to Oil and Gas (excluding geophysical activities) Limited to PTP area Limited to PTP area Only Indicators & Targets are legally-binding (not BMPs or formal AM) Only Indicators & Targets are legally-binding (not BMPs or formal AM) Are there: Other management needs? Interests? Applications? Plans? Other management needs? Interests? Applications? Plans? Opportunities? How much do you as a committee want to facilitate or recommend? How much do you as a committee want to facilitate or recommend?

19. Risk Assessment Spatial mapping Spatial mapping Cumulative effects – spatial, temporal Cumulative effects – spatial, temporal Using the information we have gained in this project and applying it in decision- making tools Using the information we have gained in this project and applying it in decision- making tools Models that explain our understanding of the system and identify uncertainties – probabilities of impact Models that explain our understanding of the system and identify uncertainties – probabilities of impact

20. “Any benefit to one value does not come at an unacceptable expense to either one or both of its counterparts” PTP Overall Goal Optimization of Values SocialEconomicEnvironmental

21. Indicators and Targets “ Setting a numerical value on the Targets has been one of the most challenging aspects of creating the pre-tenure plans. The science and information behind attempting to quantify short- and long-term impacts of oil and gas activities, and therefore behind the management direction that guide the activities, is imprecise and subjective. As a result, regular monitoring of activities and their outcomes on the ground, and adapting to local conditions or new information, is essential” Looked at info that was available in sufficient detail and relevant over broad scale – 5 focal species, all ungulates, winter range limiting factor Looked at info that was available in sufficient detail and relevant over broad scale – 5 focal species, all ungulates, winter range limiting factor Some value indicators are difficult to measure Some value indicators are difficult to measure Lots of uncertainty in targets – complex system, Lots of uncertainty in targets – complex system, Thresholds (critical levels / conditions) are largely unknown Thresholds (critical levels / conditions) are largely unknown Multiple competing values Multiple competing values

26. Spatial Relationships: Juxtaposition of Habitat Elements Evaluating Relationships Among Habitat Elements Trails Escape Terrain Staging Areas Escape Terrain Summer/Winter Mineral Licks