1. Climate Change and its Implications for Coastal and Marine Ecosystems Frank Schwing BioForum - Adapting to Climate Change: Challenges and Prospects 17 April 2010

2. The Challenge: Sustainable Management of an Ever-Changing Planet

3. Climate change is an environmental issue......and a developmental, economic, & political issue Climate change affects the ability of ecosystems to provide essential goods and services Adaptation can reduce adverse effects… …but not prevent all damage With consensus on global climate change, the national priority is evolving toward determining ecosystem impacts, and mitigation and adaptation

4. U.S. — A “Perfect Storm” for Climate & Marine Ecosystems Demand for seafood, economical and efficient fisheries Protected areas must be sited & monitored with future change in mind Conservation and recovery programs, marine spatial planning, ecosystem approaches to management… Coastal human communities expect pristine environment, but stress coastal & ocean habitat, and are vulnerable to climate change Recognition of changing ecosystems, better understanding of climate-ecosystem links Reality of climate change Demand for seafood, economical and efficient fisheries Protected areas must be sited & monitored with future change in mind Conservation and recovery programs, marine spatial planning, ecosystem approaches to management… Coastal human communities expect pristine environment, but stress coastal & ocean habitat, and are vulnerable to climate change Recognition of changing ecosystems, better understanding of climate-ecosystem links Reality of climate change

6. Ecosystems respond To climate change

7. (Frank Perry, SCNHM) Climate Change = Ecosystem Change Monterey Pine — range TodayFossil

8. Large-Scale Circulation: The California Current, Part of the North Pacific Ocean Circulation (from Jack Barth, OSU)

9. Coastal upwelling Satellite chlorophyll and temperature (from Jack Barth, OSU)

10. Ocean physical changes (e.g., warming, currents) Ocean acidification Effects of global change vs. natural variation Freshwater supply Sea level rise Loss of sea ice Climate Change Issues for Coastal and Marine Ecosystems

11. Global Temperature Trend

12. Global Warming Spatial Patterns

13. California Marine Populations Shifting Northward (from Union of Concerned Scientists)

14. Warmer Climate Favors Southern Intertidal Species (from Berry et al., 1995)

15. Lower Production in 2005 & 2006 due to Weak Springtime Upwelling (from David Foley, NOAA NESDIS)

16. 2005-2006 - worst years on record for Farallon Island auklets (42 km west of San Francisco) Mean productivity = 0.70 From Sydeman and Bradley, PRBO #young/breeding-pair Nests abandoned due to delayed upwelling

17. Ocean Acidification That ‘other’ CO 2 problem Estimated aragonite saturation states of the surface ocean for the years 1765, 1995, 2040, and 2100 (Feely et al., submitted), based on the modeling results of Orr et al. (2005) and a business-as-usual CO 2 emissions scenario. As ocean calcium carbonate saturation state decreases, calcification rates by marine organisms can decline. - reduced extension rates - weaker skeletons/shells pH CO 3 2- CO 2(aq) Wolf-Gladrow et al., 1999 CO 2 and Ocean Acidification

18. Ocean acidification effect on coral: (A) healthy coral with skeleton (B) coral polyps unable to build reef © Nancy Knowlton

19. Western Alaskan Sockeye British Columbia Sockeye Central Alaskan Pink Japanese Chum Pink salmon diet Predicted effect of climate change on pink salmon growth: 10% increase in water temperature leads to 3% drop in mature salmon body weight (physiological effect). 10% decrease in pteropod production leads to 20% drop in mature salmon body weight (prey limitation). (Aydin et al. 2005) Fishery Impacts of Ocean Acidification 10% decrease in pteropod production leads to 20% drop in pink salmon body weight

20. Changes in CA Current Source Water

21. Low Oxygen Waters Spreading into the California Current Figure: Barth & Shearman

22. Bottom trawl surveys, Pavlov Bay, AK Late 1960’s Late 1970’s 1980’s (from Anderson and Piatt, 1999) Climate shifts perturb fisheries and have socio-economic impacts

23. Late 1960’s Late 1970’s 1980’s Climate shifts perturb fisheries and have socio-economic impacts Bottom trawl surveys, Pavlov Bay, AK (from Anderson and Piatt, 1999)

24. Late 1960’s Late 1970’s 1980’s Bottom trawl surveys, Pavlov Bay, AK (from Anderson and Piatt, 1999) Climate shifts perturb fisheries and have socio-economic impacts

25. Pacific Decadal Oscillation warm phase Interdecadal climate variability (“regime shifts”) changes ecosystem structure and productivity (from Nathan Mantua, U. Washington)(from Peterson and Schwing, 2003) cool phase zooplankton OR coho copepods

26. CA Sardine-Anchovy Cycles Natural decadal cycles for at least Two Millenia off So. CA

27. Global Streamflow Projections

28. 1961-1990 Mean 2070-2099 Medium Warming/ Drier Climate (from California Climate Change Center) Decreasing Sierra Snowpack

29. Earlier California Seasonal Snowmelt and Runoff

30. Global Sea Level Rise

31. Sea Level Change in California Golden Gate Water Level

32. SF Bay - 1m Sea Level Rise Projection

33. Sea Ice

34. Arctic Sea Ice National Snow and Ice Data Center http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/index.html Sea ice extent continued to increase seasonally, but was near the historic low value in Feb 2010.

35. Climate Change Projected to Impact California Current Ecosystem Warmer summer temperatures; greater ocean stratification, weaker upwelling (very likely) Warmer & wetter winters; greater freshwater inflow, coastal flooding (very likely) Higher coastal sea level (very likely) More extreme events; stronger storms, El Nino, hurricanes (likely) Delayed seasonal cycle; delayed upwelling (likely) Northward species shifts Lower productivity & food Exotic species introduced Reduced coastal water quality Toxic blooms Human health hazards Intertidal species displaced Wetlands reduced Greater coastal erosion Fisheries reduced & displaced Warm-water fisheries available Delayed spring bloom Reproduction, migration impacted Projected changes - 21st century Examples of ecological impacts

36. Mitigate: avoid the unmanageable Adapt: manage the unavoidableSolutions

37. Reduce other stresses that can be controlled Reduce nutrient and chemical pollution Manage fisheries conservatively Control invasive species Protect biodiversity & habitats Maximize likelihood of adaption Maximize population and ecosystem resiliency Invest in scientific research, monitoring and educationSolutions

38. Green Seas Blue Seas http://swfsc.noaa.gov/PG-Mural.aspx Consumer facts on safe, sustainable seafoodFishWatch.noaa.gov