1. The Histories, Current Situation and Possible Futures of the “Adaptation” Concept Talk presented at the workshop “Limits to Adaptation” 7-8 February 2008 Ben Orlove Environmental Science and Policy, UCDavis Center for Research on Environmental Decisions, Columbia University

2. Overview of talk Two meanings of “limits to adaptation” Three histories of adaptation The current situation of adaptation Possible futures of adaptation A case to consider: glacier retreat in the Andes

3. Two meanings of “limits to adaptation” The concept is clear but the application of the concept can be difficult. The concept is not clear.

4. Overview of talk Two meanings of “limits to adaptation” Three histories of adaptation The current situation of adaptation Possible futures of adaptation A case to consider: glacier retreat in the Andes

5. Three histories of adaptation 1. Common-sense, non-technical use (17 th century to present) “The action or process of adapting, fitting, or suiting one thing to another” [OED] 1610 HEALEY St. Aug., City of God 743 They..made a very ingenious adaptation of the one to the other. 1646 SIR T. BROWNE Pseud. Ep. III. xi. 130 A commixtion of both in the whole rather than an adaptation or cement of the one unto the other.

7. Three histories of adaptation 2. Scientific and technical uses (19 th century to present) 1859 DARWIN in Jrnl. Linn. Soc. Zool. III. 50 The most vigorous and healthy males, implying perfect adaptation, must generally gain the victory in their contests [for the females]. 1881 in Syd. Soc. Lex. [Sydenham Society, Lexicon of... ] 1920 Jrnl. Gen. Phys. II. 499 The phenomenon of retinal adaptation is one of the most familiar facts of sensory physiology. 1955 Julian Steward: cultural adaptations

8. Three histories of adaptation 3. Applied environmental science (20 th century to present) 1970s Studies of disaster and natural hazards 1990s Adaptation to climate change

9. Three histories of adaptation 3. Applied environmental science (20 th century to present) 1970s Studies of disaster and natural hazards 1990s Adaptation to climate change

11. Draft resolution to UN General Assembly (summer 1988) 1 st Assessment Report (1990) 2 nd Assessment Report (1995) 3 rd & 4 th Assessment Reports (2001, 2007) “science”WGI: Science “social and economic impacts” WG!I: ImpactsWG!I: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation WG!I: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability “possible policy responses to delay, limit or mitigate impacts” WGIII: Responses WGIII: Economic and Social Dimensions WGIII: Mitigation “relevant treaties and other legal instruments” “elements for possible future inter- national conventions”

13. Hazards and disasters Climate change Integration of natural and social science High Availability of technological solutions HighVariable Availability of organizational solutions Variable Spatial scales of threatsLocal to regional Local to global Temporal scale of threatsShort to medium Some short; mostly medium to long Integration of economic values and human rights HighVariable Ease of integrating solutions with other programs Medium to highLow to medium

14. Three histories of adaptation Recent shifts Shifting from general discussion of responses to focusing on the word “adaptation”. Between 1992 and 1995. Fearing that talking about adaptation would direct effort away from mitigation. Late 1990s, early 2000s. Linking adaptation and mitigation, after 2000-2002. Establishing the National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs). 2001.

15. Overview of talk Two meanings of “limits to adaptation” Three histories of adaptation The current situation of adaptation Possible futures of adaptation A case to consider: glacier retreat in the Andes

16. The current situation of adaptation Social location: three contexts of discussion 1.Science (natural and social science; academic settings) 2.Policy (governments; NGOs; local bodies) 3.Public (media; Internet; meetings; conversation)

17. The current situation of adaptation Social location: single ownership of the term: IPCC Adjustment in natural or human systems to a new or changing environment. Adaptation to climate change refers to adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and public adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation. source: IPCC glossary, 3 rd Assessment Report

18. The current situation of adaptation Social effect: focus attention towards certain kinds of problems Think: to which of the following does the term apply ? Climate change Loss of biodiversity Epidemic malaria The HIV/AIDS epidemic The obesity epidemic The rise of China and India as economic powers The decline of the US dollar Human rights abuses Terrorism

19. The current situation of adaptation Social effect: focus attention towards certain kinds of assessment. Comparisons of impacts –(and away from hard-to-compare sets of impacts, like economic and cultural impacts) Comparisons of pathways –(and away from hard-to-formulate and changing pathways) Comparisons within and between populations –(and away from hard-to-define/-observe categories and to cross-scale interactions)

20. The current situation of adaptation Social effect: focus attention towards certain kinds of projects and funding Scale (national, local) Challenges to integrating adaptation and other projects (the “additionality”problem)

21. The current situation of adaptation Social effect: what does the term adaptation make easier to see? What does it make it harder to see? Climate change and migration. Climate change and irreversible, non-substitutable sources.

22. Overview of talk Two meanings of “limits to adaptation” Three histories of adaptation The current situation of adaptation Possible futures of adaptation A case to consider: glacier retreat in the Andes

23. Possible futures of adaptation Scenario 1: “business as usual” the term becomes more widespread the term becomes more diffused the term becomes internationalized repackaging of projects and organizations

24. Possible futures of adaptation Scenario 2: adaptation the term proliferates and becomes modified mainstreaming adaptation adaptation and development “Adaptation Day” first held at 2002 COP ; became “Development and Adaptation Days” in 2004 and “Development and Climate Days” in 2007. “limits to adaptation”

25. Possible futures of adaptation Scenario 3: transformation new terms join the word “adaptation” climate risk management –reduce uncertainty in forecasts –develop new technologies –develop new institutions and organizations (e.g. insurance) academic approaches –environmental history –critical geography

26. Overview of talk Two meanings of “limits to adaptation” Three histories of adaptation The current situation of adaptation Possible futures of adaptation A case to consider: glacier retreat in the Andes

27. A case study: Peruvian glaciers Glaciers and adaptation to climate change –Timing At present rather than just forecast for future –Detection Visibility Monitoring –Attribution Global scale of retreat Links to models

28. “An Inconvenient Truth,” Al Gore

30. A case study: Peruvian glaciers high elevation, 4600 – 5200 meters above sea level natural grasslands and irrigated pasture alpaca herding: sale and barter of wool, meat, animals. catch-and-release hunting/shearing of vicuñas hydropower facilities and mining exploration in region

31. A case study: Peruvian glaciers indigenous Quechua-speaking herders centuries-long history of colonialism and land conflicts recent decades: violence and neoliberal government policies. weak presence of NGOs

37. Glacier retreat in Cusco Changes in the Qori Kalis Glacier, Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru, are shown between 1978 (top) and 2002. The glacier retreat during this time was 1.1 km. Photo credit: Lonnie Thompson

38. Changes in glaciers Cordilleras Vilcanota and Carabaya 196219992007/15 (+0.15°C) 2015/25 (+0.3°C) 2040/60 (+1.2°C) Total area (km 2 )87.4257.6046.1235.137.89 Total volume (km 3 )1.691.120.890.680.15 Max. runoff (m 3 /s)7.595.004.003.050.68 Min. runoff (m 3 /s)2.531.671.331.020.23 Av. runoff (m 3 /s)5.063.332.672.030.46 Source: Hüggel et al. 2003, Assessment of glacier hazards and glacier runoff

41. Warming in the American Cordillera 1990/99-2090/99 Source: Bradley et al. 2006, Threats to water supplies in the Tropical Andes

42. Local perceptions (“detection”) processes –rit’i pisiyamun “The ice and snow are diminishing.” –rit’i chhullukun “The ice and snow are melting.” features –yana rit’i “black snow” [dust-covered ice] –t’oqo “holes” [moulins] –wayq’o “cracks” [crevasses] epistemology –sut’i “in plain sight”

44. interview characteristics 10 interviews 7 men, 3 women –Overlap of gender, language birthplace: 5 from local village, 2 from neighboring villages, 2 from adjacent provinces, 1 from elsewhere in department key issue: interaction of economic and cultural factors in shaping perceptions, framing, concerns

48. mention mining by social/spatial scale local village local, nearby villages villages, region highland Peru total no23005 yes02215 total252110

49. mention mountain spirits by temporal scale yearsyears & gens gensgens & epochs epochstotal no400026 yes021014 total4210310

51. number of projects by temporal scale yearsyears & gens gensgens & epochs epochstotal 0111036 2200002 5110002 4210310

52. Local proposals alpaca breeding (4) water (irrigation, reservoirs, drinking water, bottled water plant) (4) alpaca infrastructure (health, medicine, exports) (3) organizations (district status, regional association) (2) regional infrastructure (roads) (1)

53. groups involved with adaptation to climate change in Cusco NGOs Local/regional government National plan (CONAM) World Bank/Global Environment Facility Foreign aid

54. Does adaptation make sense as a way to think of the herders? Very large scale of threats to core livelihood Mismatch of local concerns and agencies (government, NGOs, international aid) Difficulty of integrating climate change and other concerns