1. Nebojša Nakićenović Technische Universität Wien Technische Universität Wien xx International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx naki@iiasa.ac.at IIASA Energy Day in Poland, Systems Research Institute Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw – 10 June 2008 Energy Perspectives and Climate Change

2. Nakicenovic # 2 2008 Global Energy Challenges Sustainable access to energy services Sustainable access to energy services (a prerequisite for reaching MDGs) Deep CO 2 and other GHGs reductions Deep CO 2 and other GHGs reductions Energy systems security and reliability Energy systems security and reliability Investment in RD&D and in diffusion Investment in RD&D and in diffusion

3. Nakicenovic # 3 2008 World Primary Energy 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 1850190019502000 Primary Energy (EJ) Biomass Coal Oil Gas Renewable Nuclear Microchip Steam motor Gasoline tube Commercial Nuclear Television aviation engine Electric Vacuum energy

4. s INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Global Mean Temperatures are Rising 100 0.074  0.018 50 0.128  0.026 Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Period Rate Years  /decade

5. Nakicenovic # 5 2008 Night Lights 2000 Source: After SRES, 2000

6. Nakicenovic # 6 2008 Night Lights IIASA A2r Scenario SRES A2 2070 Source: After SRES, 2000

7. Nakicenovic # 7 2008 Δ Temperature 2070 Source: TAR-WGI, 2001 2070

8. Nakicenovic # 8 2008 Global Primary Energy – A2r

9. Nakicenovic # 9 2008 Global Primary Energy – B1

10. INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC) Long-Term Stabilization Profiles A2 B1

11. INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC) Long-Term Stabilization Profiles ~$100/tCO 2 A2 B1

12. INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC) Long-Term Stabilization Profiles <$25/tCO 2 ~$100/tCO 2

13. The lower the stabilisation level the earlier global emissions have to go down peak in 10yrs peak in 25yrs

14. Nakicenovic # 14 2008 Source: David Sanborn Scott, 2004

15. Nakicenovic # 15 2008 Technology Learning Costs and Benefits Future learning benefits Level of present competitiveness Learning costs Cumulative investments $ Specific investment costs ($/kW) Cumulative MW experience Time Learning benefits

16. Nakicenovic # 16 2008 1985: 1,200 Data source: Watanabe, 1995 &1997 Japan - PV Costs vs. Expenditures Grübler, 2002 1985: 1,200 Data Source: Watanabe, 1997 ~ $1 10 9 Cost reduction ~ $100 10 9

17. Nakicenovic # 17 2008 Technology Learning in SRES Source: Riahi

18. earlier investments diversification Total Primary Energy B2 baseline, f are hedging costs

19. Nakicenovic # 19 2007 Total Energy-related Investments (World, short & long-term) 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 Trillion US$2000 A2B1A2B1 2000-21002000-2030 Long-term Investment Savings (~40 trillion) “Upfront”Investments (~2 trillion)

20. Nakicenovic # 20 2008 Global Energy Assessment Towards a more Sustainable Future The magnitude of the change required is huge The magnitude of the change required is huge The challenge is to find a way forward that addresses all the issues simultaneously The challenge is to find a way forward that addresses all the issues simultaneously A paradigm shift is needed: energy end- use efficiency, new renewables, advanced nuclear and carbon capture and storage. A paradigm shift is needed: energy end- use efficiency, new renewables, advanced nuclear and carbon capture and storage. Source: Johansson, 2005

21. Some Research Areas for future collaboration (1)Integrated Assessment Framework: Modeling of long-term global and regional transitions (2)Decision Making under Uncertainty (3)Energy services: Understanding heterogeneity of energy consumers (4)Global Energy Assessment (GEA)

22. Confronting the Challenges of Energy for Sustainable Development: The Role of Scientific and Technical Analysis Sustainable Development: The Role of Scientific and Technical Analysis and its international partners present the www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org

23. GEA Knowledge Clusters ●Cluster I: Major Global Issues and Energy –assessment of the Challenges ●Cluster II: Energy Resources and Technological Options –assessment of the Components available to build future energy systems ●Cluster III: Possible Sustainable Futures –assessment of how to combine the Components to create Systems that address the Challenges – Scenario development ●Cluster IV: Policies Advancing Energy for Sustainable Development –assessment of the Policies needed to address the Challenges and realize the Systems

24. Organizations Supporting GEA International Organizations UNDP UNEP UNIDO World Bank IEA Country Governments/Agencies Austria Brazil Italy Korea Sweden USA Corporations Petrobras TEPCO Industry groups WEC WBCSD Foundations UN Foundation Heinz Foundation

25. Confronting the Challenges of Energy for Sustainable Development: The Role of Scientific and Technical Analysis Sustainable Development: The Role of Scientific and Technical Analysis and its international partners present and its international partners present www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org