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Published byKristian Jennings Modified over 9 years ago
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Figure 1.1 Price of WTI at Chicago ActualForecast
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Figure 1.2 Average price of oil at Alberta wellhead ActualForecast
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Figure 1.3 Average price of natural gas at plant gate ActualForecast
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Figure 1.4. Alberta gas well cost estimations Drilling, casing and completion costs estimates (in millions 2003$) By Modified PSAC Area 20022004 Area 1 Area 2 Area 3 Area 4 Area 5 Area 6 Area 7 Source: PSAC 2004 Well Cost study (2003 dollars) and PSAC 2002 Well Cost study (2001 dollars) 2.29 0.18 0.42 0.73 1.79 0.270.420.450.29 1.97 0.82 0.45 0.18 2.29 0.0% 4.8% 5.5% 12.0% 12.3% 6.2%5.5% increase in costs (in percentage, over 2 years)
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Figure 1.5. Alberta oil well cost estimations Drilling, casing and completion costs estimates. (in millions 2003$) By Modified PSAC Area Area 3 Area 4 Area 5 Area 7 Source: PSAC 2004 Well Cost study (2003 dollars) and PSAC 2002 Well Cost study (2001 dollars) 20022004 0.78 0.61 0.53 0.66 0.85 0.64 0.52 0.75 13.2% -2.1% 4.3% 9.0% increase in costs (in percentage, over 2 years)
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Figure 1.6. Canadian economic indicators
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Figure 1.7. Alberta GDP growth, unemployment & inflation rates ActualForecast
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Figure 2.1. Alberta’s three oil sands areas
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Figure 2.2. Comparison of Alberta’s crude oil and crude bitumen reserves
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Figure 2.3. Bitumen pay isopachs for the Athabasca Wabiskaw-McMurray deposit at 6 mass per cent cutoff and greater than 1.5 metres
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Figure 2.4. Net pay isopachs for recoverable bitumen within the Athabasca Wabiskaw- McMurray at 6 mass per cent cutoff and greater than 10 metres
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ATHABASCA COLD LAKE PEACE RIVER 2.5 17.5 41.4 111.7 Figure 2.5. Production of bitumen in Alberta 2004 10 3 m 3 /d Mined Bitumen In Situ
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Figure 2.6. Alberta crude oil and equivalent production
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Figure 2.7. Alberta crude bitumen production 10 3 m 3 /d ForecastActual Surface Mining In Situ
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Figure 2.8. Total in situ bitumen production and producing bitumen wells
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Figure 2.9. Alberta synthetic crude oil production 10 3 m 3 /d Forecast Actual Synthetic Crude Oil
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Figure 2.10. Alberta Demand and Disposition of Crude Bitumen and SCO 10 3 m 3 /d Forecast Actual SCO Removals from Alberta Nonupgraded Bitumen Removals from Alberta Alberta Demand (mainly SCO)
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Figure 3.1. Remaining established reserves of crude oil
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Figure 3.2. Annual changes in conventional crude oil reserves
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Figure 3.3. Annual changes to waterflood reserves
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Fig. 3.4. Distribution of oil reserves by size (10 3 m 3 )
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Figure 3.5. Oil pool size by discovery year
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Figure 3.6. Initial established crude oil reserves based on various recovery mechanisms (10 6 m 3 ) Light-mediumHeavy
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Figure 3.7. Geological distribution of reserves of conventional crude oil
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2004 Initial established reserves 2664.9 10 6 m 3 2004 Remaining established reserves 249.2 10 6 m 3 258 17 478 49 1193 75 384 45 176 14 159 45 Fig. 3.8. Regional distribution of Alberta oil reserves (10 6 m 3 ) 2 21
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Figure 3.9. Alberta’s remaining established oil Reserves versus cumulative production
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Figure 3.10. Growth in initial established reserves of crude oil 3130 Ultimate potentiial 10 6 m 3
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Figure 3.11. Alberta successful oil well drilling By Modified PSAC Area 62 12 350 679 2 2003 Wells Drilled = 2345 2004 Wells Drilled = 1949 41 8 557 389 323 8 616 149 178 534 386
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Figure 3.13. Initial operating day rates of oil wells placed on production, 2004 By Modified PSAC Area 17.9 (112) 12.7 (80) 7.3 ( 46) 4.8 (30) 7.3 (46 ) 5.5 (34 ) 10.5 (66) m 3 /day/well (bbl/day/well) Total = 1910 wells 326 3 410 368 609 Figure 3.12. Oil wells placed on production, 2004 By Modified PSAC Area 150 44
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Figure 3.15. Total crude oil production and producing oil wells
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Figure 3.16. Crude oil well productivity in 2004
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7% 11% Figure 3.17. Total conventional crude oil Production by year placed on production 4% 6% 3% 7% 42% Percent of total production from oil wells 6% 4% 3%
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Figure 3.18. Comparison of crude oil production Texas Onshore Louisiana Onshore Alberta Crude Oil
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Figure 3.19. Alberta Crude Oil Price and Well Activity ActualForecast
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Figure 3.20. Alberta daily production of crude oil Production (10 3 m 3 /d) ForecastActual Light-Medium Crude Oil Heavy Crude Oil
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Figure 3.21. Capacity and location of Alberta refineries Refinery Capacities - m 3 /d
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Figure 3.22. Alberta demand and disposition of crude oil 10 3 m 3 /d ForecastActual Alberta Demand Crude Oil Removals from Alberta
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Figure 3.23. Alberta supply of crude oil and equivalent 10 3 m 3 /d ForecastActual Light-Medium Heavy Pentanes Plus SCO Nonupgraded Bitumen
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Figure 4.1. Alberta successful gas well drilling – coalbed methane By Modified PSAC Area 2004 Wells Drilled = 1174 151 613 3 407
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Figure 5.1. Annual reserves additions and production of marketable gas
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Figure 5.2. Remaining marketable gas reserves
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Total = 72 10 9 m 3 22 6 Figure 5.3. Alberta unconnected gas reserves, 2004 By Modified PSAC Area 4 4 3 2 16 * Numbers not to scale 15
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Figure 5.4. New, development, and revisions to marketable gas reserves
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Total = 145.9 10 9 m 3 12.0 -3.7 Figure 5.5. Marketable Gas Reserves Changes, 2004 By Modified PSAC Area 10 9 m 3 3.7 0.0 4.9 71.0 17.9 40.1 * Numbers not to scale
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Fig. 5.6. Distribution of Gas Reserves by size (10 9 m 3 )
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Figure 5.7. Gas pools by size and discovery year
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Figure 5.8. Geological distribution of marketable gas reserves
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10 9 m 3 Sweet Natural Gas Sour Natural Gas Figure 5.9. Remaining marketable reserves of sweet and sour gas
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Figure 5.10. Expected recovery of natural gas components
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Figure 5.11. Growth of initial established reserves of marketable gas Ultimate potential (6.52) 10 12 m 3 at 37.4 MJ/m 3 Actual as of December 31, 2004
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Figure 5.12. Gas ultimate potential Remaining reserves Production Ultimate potential based on 2004 study 10 9 m 3
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Remaining established reserves 1127 10 9 m 3 Yet-to-be established reserves 1729 10 9 m 3 338 43 403 643 155 272 52 109 48 95 52 197 61 36 169 Figure 5.13. Regional Distribution of Alberta Gas Reserves (10 9 m 3 ) 183 1706 256 953 214 904 220 204 90 Initial established reserves 4547 10 9 m 3
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Ultimate Potential: 2004 * 1 6276 10 9 m 3 Ultimate Potential: 1991 * 2 5600 10 9 m 3 1122 439 2349 1176 1044 323 225 180 401 341 103 151 889 Figure. 5.14. Regional Distribution of Alberta’s Ultimate Potential for Conventional Natural Gas (10 9 m 3 ) 434 315 2374 * 1 as-is heating value * 2 37.4 MJ/m3
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Figure 5.15. Gas in place by geological period
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Figure 5.16. Alberta successful gas well drilling - conventional By Modified PSAC Area 477 243 1482 811 6567 85 2003 Wells Drilled = 12060 2004 Wells Drilled = 12960 469 163 346 357 2049 2562 1792 102 898 6609
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Figure 5.17. Successful conventional gas wells drilled and connected Number of Wells
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Figure 5.19. Initial operating day rates of connections, 2004 By Modified PSAC Area 7 (0.25) 19 (0.67) 5 (0.18) 8 (0.28) 5 (0.18) 20 (0.71) 65 (2.30) 4 (0.14) 10 3 m 3 /day/well (MMcf/day/well) Total = 13 059 wells 7107 84 2111 1743 1080 Figure 5.18. Conventional gas well connections, 2004 By Modified PSAC Area 263 253 418
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Connection Year Percentage of Total Production from Gas Wells in 2004 26% 13% 16% 11% 9 % 5 % Figure 5.23. Raw gas production by connection year 7 % 5 % 4 % 3 % 2%
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Figure 5.24. Average initial natural gas well productivity in Alberta
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Figure 5.25. Alberta Natural Gas Well Activity and Price Actual Forecast
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Figure 5.26. Disposition of conventional marketable gas production Actual Forecast 10 9 m 3 Tcf 7.1 5.3 3.6 1.8 25% 23% 27% 36%42% Removals from AlbertaAlberta Demand
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Figure 5.27. Comparison of natural gas production Tcf Texas Onshore Louisiana Onshore Alberta
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Actual Forecast
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Figure 5.30. Alberta natural gas storage injection/withdrawal volumes 10 6 m 3
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Figure 5.31. Alberta marketable gas demand by sector 10 9 m 3 Actual Forecast Residential Commercial Industrial – Oil Sands Industrial - Petrochemical Other Industrial Electricity Generation Transportation Re-processing Plant Shrinkage
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Figure 6.1. Remaining established NGL reserves expected to be extracted and annual production
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Figure 6.2. Remaining established reserves of natural gas liquids
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Figure 6.3. Schematic of Alberta NGL flows Alberta Gas & NGL Market Alberta Gas & NGL Market - NGL Mix - Ethane - Propane - Butanes - Pentanes Plus Field Plants Field Plants Marketable Gas Raw Gas Extraction Plant - Ethane - Propane - Butanes - Pentanes Plus Chicago, IL Other Canadian Markets Other Canadian Markets US Markets Alberta Border Crude Oil Fractionation Plants - Ethane - Propane - Butanes - Pentanes Plus Propane Butanes Straddle Plants - NGL Mix - Ethane - Propane - Butanes - Pentanes Plus Oil Pools Refineries Alliance High Pressure Pipeline Gas Pools Gas Pools Sulphur Battery Dry Gas NGL Mix Spec product Rich gas R R R R Point royalties collected Dry or rich gas
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Figure 6.4. Ethane supply and demand 10 3 m 3 /d Actual Forecast
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Figure 6.5. Propane supply from natural gas and demand 10 3 m 3 /d Actual Forecast * excludes solvent flood volumes
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Figure 6.6. Butane supply from natural gas and demand 10 3 m 3 /d Actual Forecast * excludes solvent flood volumes
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Figure 6.7 Pentane supply from natural gas and demand 10 3 m 3 /d Actual Forecast * excludes solvent flood volumes
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Figure 7.1. Sources of sulphur production Sour Gas Refining and Upgrading Actual Forecast
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Figure 7.2. Sulphur production from oil sands
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Figure 7.3. Canadian sulphur offshore exports
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Figure 7.4. Sulphur demand and supply in Alberta Alberta Demand Removed from Province Stockpile Actual Forecast
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Figure 8.1. Alberta Marketable Coal Production Million tonnes
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