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Juan Carlos Echeverry Comments on Crime and Finance: Evidence from Colombia Pshisva and Suarez.

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Presentation on theme: "Juan Carlos Echeverry Comments on Crime and Finance: Evidence from Colombia Pshisva and Suarez."— Presentation transcript:

1 Juan Carlos Echeverry Comments on Crime and Finance: Evidence from Colombia Pshisva and Suarez

2 The title: Crime and finance or “ Kidnappings and investment ” Crucial question for the impact of conflict on Colombian Economic activity: the key channel Estimations of internal armed conflicts show that there was not important impact before mid-nineties

3 The period: 1996 - 2002 There are several stories affecting the second half of the nineties: external shocks, internal politics, shift in the conflict, etc. The relationship: how to tackle it –What does the kidnapper know and do –What does the person likely to be kidnapped know and do –What does the firm know and do

4 Is kidnapping targeted to personal and family wealth or firms These actors react to this possibility by hedging Hence, the emphasis of the paper on “firm-related kidnappings” is not entirely clear What kidnappers know? Only in some cases they actually target the person for his/her link with a specific firm In this period firms should have already internalized this phenomenon and developed strategies to tackle it: the risk of kidnappings can be calculated Hence, the equilibrium level of investment should already have taken that into consideration

5 The dependent variables are subject to measurement errors –kidnappers not identified as owners –kidnappings actually underreported –sons of owners - authors recognize this Kidnappings and regions: the regions that could be driving the results are not really meaningful economically Kidnappings might be endogenous to investment Worrisome: Table 6 separates firms directly affected by kidnappings and nothing comes out

6 The authors compute the “industry effects” which are difficult to understand There is previous evidence that is not mentioned: Parra (1999): I/Y declines in 0.66 facing and increase of 1% in homicide rate Echeverry et al. (2000) decline of 0.54 Characteristics and length of the conflict matter

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