1. Sustainable rural populations: the case of two National Park areas Alan Marshall Ludi Simpson Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research

2. 1.Introduction Population sustainability is an important issue in National Parks in the UK “If young people and key workers cannot afford to buy accommodation within park boundaries then local communities may suffer economic and social decline” (Cairncross et al, 2001)

3. 1. Introduction Population projections highlight the problem for policymakers Research Questions: If recent trends what will be the impact on the demographic characteristics of National Parks? What is the nature of the migration age/sex profile in the two parks and its impact on population change? What policy implications follow on from the projections?

4. 2. National Parks in the UK National parks in England and Wales were set up by the National Parks and Access to Countryside Act (1949) Conservation of landscape Promotion of public understanding and enjoyment of the special qualities of the Parks Since 1995 - a duty to seek to foster the economic and social well-being of their local communities

5. 2. National Parks in the UK In Scotland National parks established in 2000 A primary aim is the promotion of “sustainable economic and social development of the area's communities” Tension between landscape conservation and social and economic well-being Is there a need for more affordable housing?

6. 2. National Parks Demographic characteristics PDNP population: 38,000 CNP population: 16,000 Compared with UK and surrounding districts: Older Predominantly white Higher proportions of retired and self employed Lower proportion of social housing Smaller average household size Higher proportions of holiday/second homes

7. 3. Data and methodology Standard population and household projection methods. Extended to labour force for PDNP Population projections use the cohort component methodology Age/sex headship and economic activity rates POPGROUP projection software used to create projections. Method requires very detailed data (single year of age and sex detail for each component)

8. 3. Data and methodology Issues: Non standard boundaries Estimation using proportions based upon residential addresses Small area estimation - Data availability and robustness of demographic rates Use local data where possible to calibrate detailed schedules from relevant reference populations (wards, districts or national).

9. 3. Data and methodology Population projections Base population: 2001 census (table CAS001) Fertility and mortality: GAD 2004 projections of age/sex specific fertility and mortality rates Vital statistics (output areas): estimates of numbers of births and deaths in park areas (2001-4) Migration: age/sex schedule based on in and out migration in the year before the census

10. 3. Data and methodology Household projections DCLG projected headship rates - PDNP GROS projected headship rates - CNP Census 2001 park estimates of household numbers in each DCLG/GROS category Communal establishment population (Census 2001) Economic activity projections (PDNP only) ONS projected economic activity rates Census 2001 park estimates of numbers economically active

11. 4. Results CNP population change between 2001-25 and CNP household change between 2001-16 All PDNP characteristics show change between 2001-26 Pop change (%) HH change (%) Economic activity change (%) 60+ population change (%) PDNP-15.3%-1.1%-36%+57% CNP+9%+20%n/a+91%

12. 2001 – 26% 60+ 2025 – 45% 60+

13. 2001 – 26% 60+ 2026 – 49% 60+

14. 4. Results: Migration profile Out migration young adults CNP: -1570 PDNP: -7156 In migration at older ages CNP +3645 (35-55) PDNP: +2457 (38-64 Net effect over all ages CNP: +4168 PDNP: +405

15. 4. Results – PDNP components of change

16. 4. Results – CNP components of change

17. 4. Results: PDNP - Zero net migration and Natural change projections Projection2001 population 2026 population % Change % Population 60 and over Zero net migration 35,15730,591-17.6 %50.0 % Natural change 35,15732,772-8.4%40.0 %

18. 4. Results: PDNP Alternative scenarios Projection% Population change % Working age pop change Census based-15%-38% 48 dwellings p/a-6.3%-29% 95 dwellings p/a1.1%-22% 150 dwellings p/a 9.9%-13%

19. 4. Results: Household projections Relative to the population change number of households projected to increase Elderly population more likely to live in single person households Lower household sizes projected nationally

20. 5. Discussion: Policy implications Aging of population a real concern Tackle the out migration 16-35 age range Affordable housing Attractiveness of the Park to the young Further research – why are young people moving out?

21. Thank you! Any Questions/comments