1. The Trade, Migration, and Development Nexus Philip Martin Plmartin@ucdavis.edu http://migration.ucdavis.edu

2. Context Global Population: 6.6 billion; labor force 3.3 billion Differences: 1/6 of pop in 30 industrial countries with 5/6 of world GDP Global Migrants: 190 million, half in the labor force, 60 percent in industrial countries

3. 191 mil Migrants: 4 Flows 62 million south to north migrants (developing to industrial) 61 million south to south migrants 53 million north to north migrants 14 million north to south migrants

4. Migrants vs Other Workers Global labor force: 40% in ag, 20% industry and construction, 40% in services Industrial countries: 3% in ag, 25% in industry, 72 % in services Migrants in industrial countries: 10% in ag, 40% in industry, 50% in services

5. Migrants vs Other Workers Education: Number 1 predictor of earnings, global pyramid shape US adults form a diamond shape: 15% less than HS diploma, 60% HS diploma, 25% college grad Migrant adults form an hourglass shape: 35-40%, 35-40%, 30%

6. Migration and Development: 3R’s Recruitment: who emigrates? Un- and under-employed or key professionals? Remittances: how much and how spent or invested? Returning migrants: invigorate local economies or rest and retire?

7. Migration and Development Optimistic virtuous circle--send out Indian IT migrants, get new outsourcing industry Pessimistic vicious circle--send out African health care workers, productivity suffers Migration’s impact on economic development: it depends

8. Mexico-US Migration 12 million Mexican-born in US = 10 % of persons born in Mexico NAFTA speeded up change in esp rural Mexico, led to migration hump Lesson: economic integration that reduces migration in the long run can increase migration in the short run

9. Migration and Development More migration can benefit poor countries GEP (2006): adding 3% more migrants to industrial country labor forces = $162 billion more to migrants and $143 billion more to their countries of origin Contrast: $200 billion gain from freer ag trade

10. Professionals and Students Developing countries are net human capital exporters Industrial countries: use supply or demand to select immigrants Students: ideal probationary immigrants; if they graduate, they can stay

11. Unskilled Migrants Largest numbers, largest wage gaps Goal: move migrants over borders via legal channels Issues: how to determine “need” in receiving countries, regulate recruiters, enforce returns

12. Guest Worker Programs Use economic incentives to reinforce rules Reduce distortion: use payroll taxes to promote mechanization and job restructuring Reduce dependence: refund migrant payroll taxes, match those invested

13. Related issues Legal vs illegal: Employers and migrants must have incentives to use legal programs Reality of irregular migrants: countries do not begin from tabula rasa; is earned legalization the answer?

14. Prediction: More Migration Demographic inequalities Economic inequalities Revolutions in communications, transportation, and rights Migration: a process to be managed, not a problem to be solved

15. The US Immigration Debate 12 million unauthorized; 60% Mexicans, 60% EWIs Legal immigration: 1 million a year; illegal, 500,000 a year Migrants spread out: share in Big 5 states--CA, NY, TX, FL, IL--dropping, sharp increases in Midwest/Southeast

16. 9/11 stopped Mex-US discussion Context: President Bush and Fox meet in Summer 2001 Mexico--we want the “whole enchilada,” legalization of unauthorized Mexicans new guest worker program cooperation to end border violence more immigration visas for Mexico

17. Senate CIRA 2006 Approved 62-36 in May 2006 Enforcement: More border agents, new fences, new workplace enforcement for new hires Guest workers: new H-2C program, with electronic job registry; apply for immigrant status after 4 years Earned legalization: >5 yrs, 2-5 yrs, <2 yrs

18. Senate CIRA 2007 Stalled on 45-53 vote in June 2007; negotiated by gang of 12 Grand bargain: earned legalization for unauthorized, select future legal immigrants via point system Also--stepped up border and interior enforcement, new guest workers

19. Where do we stand? Legal and unauthorized migration continues DHS attempting to increase enforcement to encourage employers to get Congress to act Congress and country divided over legalization-amnesty

20. Closing Observations Goal: a world of few barriers to migration, and little unwanted migration Numbers vs rights: Migration is motivated by differences, but int’l and national laws and norms call for equality Making the trade off between the goods of numbers vs rights