1. Europe in 2030: The Crisis Aftermath Implications for Spatial Strategies Andreu Ulied, MCRIT ESPON Scenarios and Vision project, ET2050 Lead Partner ESPON 2013 Open Seminar : Territorial Co-operation for growth 13 and 14 June 2013 Dublin Castle

2. What may be the Crisis Aftermath from now to 2030? Regional Disparities?, Global Opennes?, Spatial Polarisation? Which Territorial Strategy for Europe up to 2050? How European Cohesion policy should be reformed? Questions to be discussed:

3. Politecnico Milano: modelling 2010-2030 Baseline Scenario with MASST3 model S&W modelling 2010-2050 Exploratory Scenarios with SASI model Reference World Scenario by MCRIT Answers mostly based on ET2050 modelling results...

4. The Crisis Aftermath... + Regional Disparities?

5. GDP Growth 2008-2030 by MASST3

6. GDP 2008-2017 (International Monetary Fond)

7. Relative change in GDP per capita 2000-2008/2030

8. GDP/Cap divergence for selected economies

9. Total Employment Change 2010-2030

10. Population Change 2010-2030 (due to Labour Migration...)

11. Ageing 2010-2030

12. The Crisis Aftermath... + Global Openness?

13. Trade by companies located in Germany (M€) EUROSTAT

14. Trade by companies located in Spain (M€)

15. Spain UK Germany UK France Foreign Investments of EU companies EUROSTAT

16. The Crisis Aftermath... + Spatial Polarisation? Source : DREWRY, 2008 America Asia 13,3 MTEU 6,7 MTEU 20 MTEU 2,2 MTEU 4,4 MTEU 13,3 MTEU 5,1 MTEU 18,4 MTEU Europe World maritime container traffic. 2008* Top 10 ports 2009

17. Evolution of Global Accessibility 2010-2030

18. Evolution of European Accessibility 2010-2030

19. 1) End of Economic Convergence in Europe… 2) Increasing Regional Gaps… 3) Lower Average Salaries and Social Disparities... 4) More Labour Mobility in Europe… 5) Global Reorientation of European Economies… 6) More Polarisation in European Global Gateways… Key Baseline Conclusions...

20. 1.What may be the Crisis Aftermath from now to 2030? 2.Which European Territorial Strategy up to 2050? 3.How European Cohesion policies could be reformed? Second Question...

21. Exploratory Scenarios and Variants for 2050 Spatial orientation of the scenarios Framework conditions Baseline 1 Economic decline 2 Technical advance 3 Energy/ Climate impacts Promotion of metropolitan areas AA1A2A3 Promotion of large European cities BB1B2B3 Promotion of peripheral regions and medium cities CC1C2C3

22. Exploratory Scenarios and Variants for 2050

23. Cohesion and Structural Funds 2000-06 / 2050

24. GDP 1981-2051 (1981=100) Highest and Lowest Growth Scenarios for 2050?

25. Cohesion: CoV of GDP/capita 1981-2051 2007 Crisis Highest Divergence and Highest Convergence?

26. National polycentricity EU12 1981-2051 Polycentrism

27. A2 C2A3 Highest Divergence and Highest Convergence?

28. Policy Evaluation 28 Sustainability indicators will also be computed by SASI (Energy use & CO2 emissions) C2 B2 A2

29. According to Danuta Huebner, referring to her native Poland, an EU member since 2004: "It is a different country now. That's thanks to European contributions" How Cohesion polices could be reformed?

30. + Sensitivity to economic cycles? + Local, Regional and National institutional empowerment? + Place-based focus towards endogenous development? + More Local and Regional Infrastructure Endowment? + Land-Use Regulations adopted in vulnerable areas? + Investments to Neighboring Countries? How Cohesion polices may be reformed?

31. “Too seek Europe, is to make it! Europe exists through its search for the infinit -and this is what I call adventure” Zygmunt Bauman, “An Adventure called Europe”

32. Further information: ulied@mcrit.com www.et2050.eu (working documents) www.espon.eu