1. 1 GURME Workshop October 2003 Emission Inventories for Santiago, Chile Héctor Jorquera, Jaime Escobar, Julio Castro Departamento de Ingeniería Química y Bioprocesos Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Santiago, Chile jorquera@ing.puc.cljorquera@ing.puc.cl, jcastrom@puc.cl, jescobar@ing.puc.cl jcastrom@puc.cl jescobar@ing.puc.cl jorquera@ing.puc.cljcastrom@puc.cl jescobar@ing.puc.cl

2. GURME Workshop October 20032 Contents Technical Description of SAIE System A glance at EDB DICTUC 2000 Current resources and needs Current research cooperation Example using CAMx: January 2000 Work in progress Conclusions

3. GURME Workshop October 20033 Overview of SAIE System

4. GURME Workshop October 20034 SAIE Structure GEOGRAPHIC, CHEMICAL, METEOROLOGICAL AND MANAGEMENT MODULES STATIONARY SOURCES MOBILE SOURCES MUNICIPAL SOURCES OTHER SOURCES

5. GURME Workshop October 20035 STATIONARY POINT AREA COMBUSTION IND. PROCESSES EVAPORATIVES COMBUSTION IND. PROCESSES EVAPORATIVES RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL OTHER RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL OTHER MOBILE ON ROAD OFF ROAD BUSES TRUCKS LIGHT DUTY COMMERCIAL TAXIS MOTORCYCLES BUSES TRUCKS LIGHT DUTY COMMERCIAL TAXIS MOTORCYCLES AIRPORTS AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION PORT AIRPORTS AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION PORT FUGITIVE SOURCES CONSTRUCTION RESUSPENDED DUST AGRICULTURE BUILDINGS ROADS BUILDINGS ROADS PAVED ROADS UNPAVED ROADS PAVED ROADS UNPAVED ROADS SOURCES

6. GURME Workshop October 20036 Stationary source emissions Based on U.S. EPA AP-42 methodology Raw data: –SESMA annual listing of permitted stationary sources, –Annual emission statement by industry (mandatory) –Measurements of PM 10 and gases –Census data for residential sources –Statistics of fuel consumption.

7. GURME Workshop October 20037 Urban Transport System at Santiago èPopulation:5.6 million èEconomics:47 % of the GDP èPublic transport:8,000 buses èBus routes:327 lines èMetro lines:3 (40 Klms.) èCars:950,000

8. GURME Workshop October 20038 ? Basic Tasks of the Strategic Transportation Model Distribution Assignment 123 Trip Generation And Demand 123 Modal Partitioning

9. GURME Workshop October 20039 Outcomes of ESTRAUSS: Vehicle counts on each link of the road network Fleet composition Average speed on each link Fluxes between city zones by type of modal transport.

10. GURME Workshop October 200310 A Glance at EDB DICTUC 2000 MODEM emissions checked with fuel consumption by type of vehicle COV speciation was incorporated in point, area and mobile sources: –Mobile: from COPERT II –Point and area: using EPA’s SPECIATE library –Fully bottom up approach Consistency check between Airviro’s EDB module, SAIE/MODEM output and CAMx input emission files. Discrepancy < 1%

11. GURME Workshop October 200311 Summary of EDB DICTUC 2000 (ton/year) PollutantPointAreaMobileTotal CO11,2675,139192,053208,459 NO X 12,6081,19042,59256,390 SO X 4,8381292,0266,994 COV82952,00020,27373,102 PM 2.5 3609841,7013,045 PM 10 5021,0082,1163,626 Fugitive PM 2.5 & Fugitive PM 10 64 192 7,593 26,414 7,657 26,607

12. GURME Workshop October 200312 Example: CO emissions

13. GURME Workshop October 200313 Example: NO X emissions

14. GURME Workshop October 200314 Example: SO 2 emissions

15. GURME Workshop October 200315 Example: Isoprene emissions

16. GURME Workshop October 200316 Example: PM 10 emissions

17. GURME Workshop October 200317 Current Resources: Staff H. Jorquera: expertise on air quality modeling, air quality forecast J. Escobar: expertise on EDB management, USA training on EDB development J. Castro: expertise on CALMET, AIRVIRO, CAMx; Students: many talented students, but poor incentives to pursue MSc/PhD programs….

18. GURME Workshop October 200318 Current Funding and Needs Funding from: – CONAMA: development of a photochemical model for Santiago. –Other public institutions –Modest funding from abroad (BC-UK) Critical needs: –Adequate space in campus –Support for graduate students –Staff training in ESL, EWS, Meteorology, MM5, Integrated Analyses, EDSS

19. GURME Workshop October 200319 Current Research Cooperation: UC/Statistics: W. Palma, J. Tapia (U. Valparaiso) –AQ Intervention analyses (AE, 2000) –Statistical ozone forecasting (JOF, 2002) –Long memory estimation (CS&DA, 2003) –Influence analysis (Jose’s PhD Thesis, 2003) –No external funding whatsoever… Imperial College: V. Vesovic, Earth Science & Engineering: –Trends in air quality and population exposure 1989-2001 ( IJEP, 2003) –A Neural Network Supervised Performance of CAMx (work in progress) –Modest funding (LINK BC, ends 2004)

20. GURME Workshop October 200320 Application of CAMx Model handles gas phase photochemistry, primary and secondary aerosols, EC, OC, PM 10, PM 2.5 and selected tracers Meteorological fields: CALMET+MM5 and CALMET + HIRLAM EDB DICTUC 2000 Preliminary results for CO, NOx, O 3

21. GURME Workshop October 200321 Modeling Domain Grid settings: 60 E-W, 40 N-S 2 x 2 km cells 8 vertical levels, up to 3 km a.g.l. Origin: 270 km (E), 6250 km (N) Grid settings: 60 E-W, 40 N-S 2 x 2 km cells 8 vertical levels, up to 3 km a.g.l. Origin: 270 km (E), 6250 km (N)

22. GURME Workshop October 200322 CO January 2000: Station B

23. GURME Workshop October 200323 CO January 2000: Station Q

24. GURME Workshop October 200324 CO January 2000: Station G

25. GURME Workshop October 200325 CO January 2000: Station J

26. GURME Workshop October 200326 NO 2 January 2000: Station N

27. GURME Workshop October 200327 NO 2 January 2000: Station P

28. GURME Workshop October 200328 NO January 2000: Station P

29. GURME Workshop October 200329 O 3 January 2000: Station M

30. GURME Workshop October 200330 O 3 January 2000: Station Q

31. GURME Workshop October 200331 O 3 January 2000: Station J

32. GURME Workshop October 200332 Work in progress Improving VOC speciation using ambient VOC campaigns and further information. Projecting EDB for the 2004 scenario, including the TRANSANTIAGO initiative. Estimation of emission reductions for the 1997-2004 span of the PPDA initiative. Estimation of AQ benefits from PPDA.

33. GURME Workshop October 200333Conclusions EDB DICTUC 2000 updated and completed, including point, area, mobile and biogenic sources. EDB available in the AIRVIRO system for different statistical reports. EDB DICTUC 2000 with spatial and temporal resolution for modeling purposes. SAIE modules developed for generating inputs to UAM-IV, CAMx, CADM (CBM-IV and RADM2). There are problems with the VOC emissions and speciation, particularly from area sources. These pitfalls require further efforts to be resolved.