1. Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage www.geos.ed.ac.uk/sccs Learning rates Nils Markusson

2. Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage www.geos.ed.ac.uk/sccs The problem – predicting the future of CCS Demand from policy-makers (and companies?!): what technologies, when, what costs? But prediction is difficult or even impossible So, best possible guesses UK Energy Research Centre - modelling of the energy sector - many supply technologies - economists, engineers, innovation policy researchers

3. Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage www.geos.ed.ac.uk/sccs A possible approach – learning rates Learning-by-doing (Grubb, 2006)

4. Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage www.geos.ed.ac.uk/sccs Learning rates - equation cost 2xcap / cost cap = 1 - LR - per accumulated capacity, not time - all unknowns...

5. Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage www.geos.ed.ac.uk/sccs LR and CCS Estimating future costs - we need initial cost, LR and capacities 1. Initial costs: estimates avilable 2. LR: historical analogues (11-12%, capture, environmental technology) 3. Capacities: deployment scenarios

6. Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage www.geos.ed.ac.uk/sccs Example calculation Target: from 80 to 10-20 /t in 2020 Cost per tonne, /t Doublings of installed capacity Literature Industry target LR 24-34%

7. Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage www.geos.ed.ac.uk/sccs Some of the known problems 1. Not always any learning like this 2. Sensitive to initial cost and time 3. Learning not always smooth

8. Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage www.geos.ed.ac.uk/sccs What to do next 1. Develop different scenarios - deployment, breakthroughs 2. Complement with qualitative accounts 3. Highlight policy implications

9. Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage www.geos.ed.ac.uk/sccs With breakthroughs Cost per tonne, /t Doublings of installed capacity