1. North Atlantic Ecosystem Modeling/Observation GLOBEC Transitioning Need: Transition science and tools developed in GLOBEC into operational tools for managers Quantify the effects of climate change on key species of marine animals. GLOBEC Goal: Quantify the effects of climate change on key species of marine animals.

2. US GLOBEC Georges Bank Program To understand the processes controlling recruitment of cod and haddock and their dominant copepod prey species as affected by climate change. Overall Objective Biomass at Age Spawning Stock Biomass Number of Recruits Stock ̶ Recruitment Georges Bank Haddock

3. Copepods vs Year Salinity Anomaly Pseudocalanus ( μ g m -3 ) Larval growth vs preyLarval Mortality vs Year Sampling Grid Green & Pershing 2007 Science

4. Climate: North Atlantic Oscillation Slope Water Intrusions Reduce Nutrients Upwelling LSW= low nutrients

5. Regional-scale Model Basin-scale Model

6. Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System (NECOFS) Concentration-based Food-web and Copepod Species Models

7. Physics Nutrients and Phytoplankton Copepod Species Input data Bio-physical model Model Output 3D Distributions of T, S, u, v, w, N, P, μZ, D, and copepod species over the period 1995-1999

8. Ji, Davis, Chen, Beardsley, et al. 1995-1999 Nutrients & Phytoplankton

9. Nauplii Pseudocalanus, 1995 Eggs CopepoditesAdults

10. Cod-haddock individual-based model The mechanistic feeding component uses biological and physical properties of predator, prey, and environment for calculations Kristiansen w/ Werner, Lough, Buckley, Fogarty, Petrik

11. Transitioning: Fisheries conservation GLOBEC 3D model predicts effects of local & remote forcing on: – Lower food web (NPZD) – Dominant copepod species – Cod/haddock larval survival Need to incorporate with adult fish stock assessment Use for other species: fish, scallops, lobsters

12. Transitioning: Other Applications Many other applications of this 3D modeling red tide right whales pollution transport, watershed interface siting of outfalls, golf courses search and rescue storm/hurricane surge/run-up port security sea-level rise/inundation

13. Transitioning: 3D model: Mass Coast

14. Future: Modeling & Observing System 3D Model can be used to: design observing system data assimilation interactive sampling provide ocean forecasts Temperature

15. Modeling & Observing System GOMOOS, COOA ORION LEO MVCO

16. Future: Modeling & Observing System: NE Partnerships Academic WHOI, UMASSD, MIT, UNH, UMaine, GOMOOS, URI, GMRI, RARGOM, GOMODP, et. al. Industry Hydroid Inc. Teledyne Inc. Seascan Inc. Web Research Inc. Falmouth Scientific, Inc. Federal NOAA-NMFS Research & Development NOAA-NOS NOAA- NMFS Operational Modeling Private Foundations Individuals Federal NOPP-IOOS NSF-ORION DHS, USCG, EPA State MA, NH, ME, RI Industry Fishing, Shipping, Envir. Consult. Funding Industry Fishing Shipping Envir. Consult. Federal NMFS, DHS, USCG, EPA State MWRA NEFMC MA CZM, DMF ME, NH DMR Local County, Town CCs, Shellfish NGOs Conservation End Users NOAA, Industry WHOI, GOMOOS Observing system maintenance

17. Workshop: Fall 2008, GoM-GB EBM-MOS Straw Agenda: Day 1 – Plenary talks: politicians, scientists, end-users Day 2 – Working Groups – Intermixing of pre-selected task-oriented groups  Sensor and platform development  Data integration and modeling.  End user interface Day 3 – Working Groups – Develop end-to-end prototypes by task-oriented groups  Cod/haddock  HABs  Sediment Transport Sponsored by WHOI’s Ocean Life Institute in partnership with: CICOR, COI, COSMOS, NERACOOS, RARGOM, GOMOOS

18. Day 1 – Plenary talks: politicians, scientists, end-users Day 2 – Working Groups – Intermixing of pre-selected task-oriented groups  Sensor and platform development  Data integration and modeling.  End user interface Day 3 – Working Groups – Develop end-to-end prototypes by task-oriented groups  Scallops  Right whales  Innundation/storm surge Sponsored by WHOI’s Ocean Life Institute in partnership with: CICOR, COI, COSMOS, NERACOOS, RARGOM, GOMOOS Workshop: Spring 2009, GoM-GB EBM-MOS Straw Agenda:

19. Day 1 – Plenary talks: politicians, scientists, end-users Day 2 – Working Groups – Intermixing of pre-selected task-oriented groups  Sensor and platform development  Data integration and modeling.  End user interface Day 3 – Working Groups – Develop end-to-end prototypes by task-oriented groups  Lobsters  Pollution: toxic, eutrophication, hypoxia  Search and Rescue Sponsored by WHOI’s Ocean Life Institute in partnership with: CICOR, COI, COSMOS, NERACOOS, RARGOM, GOMOOS Workshop: Summer 2009, GoM-GB EBM-MOS Straw Agenda:

20. BASIN: Basin-scale Analysis, Synthesis, and Integration - Resolving the impact of climatic processes on ecosystems of the North Atlantic basin and shelf seas. Goal: To understand and predict the impact of climate change on key species of plankton and fish, and associated ecosystem and biogeochemical dynamics in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre System and surrounding shelves, in order to improve ocean management and conservation.

21. Scenario for trans-Atlantic BASIN sampling