1. Optimisation of government revenue in a framework of fiscal space, tax potential and tax effort Jean-François Brun Gérard Chambas CERDI Module 2

2. Objective: optimum level of government revenue Multi-criteria analysis required to assess an optimum level of government revenue Level of government revenue contingent upon political choices 1EU Workshop Brussels 2014

3. Outline I - Limits of traditional analyses of Government Financial Operations Tables (GFOT) II - Optimal management of public finances, the notion of fiscal space III - Tax potential and tax effort 2EU Workshop Brussels 2014

4. I Limits of conventional analyses of Government Financial Operations Tables (GFOT)  Analysis in a restricted time frame  Lack of international references  Lack of standards that take into account the specific characteristics of the countries analysed (for example, tax potential)  Analysis per item without considering the whole (inability to identify an optimum or take into account interrelationships) 3EU Workshop Brussels 2014

5. II the fiscal space (1) fiscal space : the diamond shape 4EU Workshop Brussels 2014

6. II the fiscal space (2) ODA Mobilisation of ODA: a political and technical choice Refusal of aid that is too costly (inappropriate conditions, implicit clauses relating to land, mining or natural resources, etc.) Integration of aid in the common law budgetary circuit (avoid annexed budgets) Impact of ODA on: The DRM: an overestimated problem (Clist, Morrissey, 2010) in countries with good governance (Brun Chambas, Guerineau, 2008) but real in the weakest countries The quality of governance and public spending 5EU Workshop Brussels 2014

7. II the fiscal space (3) Deficit financing by external borrowing Besides the financial cost (interest rate, deadline) and risks inherent in external borrowing (exchange, rates), the associated conditions should be taken into account Cost of payments due in foreign currencies may change (the case of mining countries in a downward cycle or the opposite at the start of the cycle) 7EU Workshop Brussels 2014

8. II the fiscal space (4) Internal borrowing from the banking system Less risk than in the case of external borrowing Probable foreclosure effect due to the behavior of banks and the legal framework of loan transactions Actual burden on the state reduced by inflation but disincentive for savers (without indexation) Education to savings (Treasury bonds). Mobilization of hoarded money 8EU Workshop Brussels 2014

9. II The fiscal space (5) Mobilisation of internal resources Need to reduce dependence on development aid Potential factor of the improvement of governance Poorest countries with poor ability to pay, difficulty in generating sufficient resources 8EU Workshop Brussels 2014

10. II the fiscal space (6) Seigniorage Minimum cost if not inflationary (virtuous) Virtuous seigniorage must be put at the service of the states (Morocco, Israel) and not retained by central banks. Major inflation risk (DRC with dollarisation) High economic and social cost of inflation (Latin America in the 80s) Inflation affects other GFOT items with knock-on effects (negative effects on revenue) 9EU Workshop Brussels 2014

11. II The notion of fiscal space (7) Public expenditure, crucial aggregate due to the volume of the resources concerned (20 to 30% of GDP) States are the main contractors Prevent ruptures in the expenditure cycle Need to consider the action of the state in an overall framework Optimise state action 10EU Workshop Brussels 2014

12. II the fiscal space (8) Improvement of the effectiveness of public spending Major guidelines to be given priority Margins of progress are considerable Progress underway but remains far from the one observed in terms of the mobilisation of internal resources. Positive effect on public resources in the form of:  Tax compliance  Reduction in poverty and greater economic growth 11EU Workshop Brussels 2014

13. Effectiveness of public spending: mechanisms available Strict application of usual budgetary procedures (network of public accounting, PEFA audit, etc.) Establishment of an instrument to ensure coherence of expenditure programmes (MTEF) output indicators Efficiency indicators with international benchmarking II the fiscal space (9) 12EU Workshop Brussels 2014

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15. III Tax potential and tax effort (1) Structural factors (inelastic in the short term) determine the tax potential: “Natural” ability to pay Economic policy determines the “tax effort “ Positive (negative) tax effort means higher (lower) tax performance than tax potential 14EU Workshop Brussels 2014

16. III tax potential and tax effort (2) Structural factors determining the tax potential: Opening up trade (+) Income per capita (+) Mining and oil exports (+) and (-) (depends on dependent variable) Part of the “hard to tax” : agricultural added value (-) 15EU Workshop Brussels 2014

17. III tax potential and tax effort Economic policy determines the tax effort Tax policy stricto sensu (legislation, administration) Monetary and exchange policy (inflation) Budgetary policy (effectiveness of public spending) Institutional policy (decentralization) Legal framework (governance, transparency, contract security, etc.) Institutional stability (democracy) 16EU Workshop Brussels 2014

18. III tax potential and tax effort 17EU Workshop Brussels 2014

19. III tax potential and tax effort - Chad EU Workshop Brussels 201418

20. Thank you for your attention EU Workshop Brussels 2014