1. UK road transport emission projections: comparison of national & TREMOVE data Melanie Hobson 30 th October, Thessaloniki

2. Emission factor determinants: pollutant type vehicle type vehicle size (cc/weight) vehicle age retrofit technology fuel type fuel quality fuel volatility speed Emission factors hot exhaust cold start Evaporative Activity data km travelled/yr Fuel consumption/yr trip length EMISSIONS tonnes/yr (UK) 1x1 km maps Emissions from each vehicle type = emission factor * activity (tonnes/yr) (g/km, g/kg fuel) (vehicle km travelled, kg fuel) Estimating Emissions from Road Transport

3. NAEI Road Transport Emission Projections – Assumptions (1) Traffic growth data from DfT demand model  Ten Year Plan for Transport  Central forecast for 2010, 2015, 2025  by vehicle type and 10 area types Introduction of Euro standards up to Euro IV/V  Impact of type-approval limit values on in- service vehicle emissions  Additional reduction in emissions for new vehicles to allow for more stringent durability requirements

4. NAEI Road Transport Emission Projections – Assumptions (2) Vehicle fleet  Turnover based on average survival rates and DfT estimates on new vehicle sales  Diesel car sales reaching 42% by 2010  DPFs on new diesel cars: 20%  Data on London bus fleet from TfL

5. NAEI Road Transport Emission Projections – Assumptions (3) Fuel quality  Sulphur-free fuels (<10ppm S) mandatory by 2009  Effect on emissions taken into account: NOx, PM (study by SENCO)

6. Differences in input data Vehicle kilometre data – different approaches Car speeds Car stock Age distribution

9. Car speeds

10. Car stock

11. Petrol car age distribution

12. Diesel car age distribution