1. Socioeconomic Data, Trends and Scenarios in the Plantation Sector in Sri Lanka M T Neil Fernando & A Jayakody Economic significance Research Questions to be Investigated Approach Adopted for Investigation of these Questions Major Problems Encountered or Anticipated Solutions for Overcoming Problems

2. Economic Significance Plantation sector comprises tea, coconut and rubber (oil palm, sugarcane) The highest net foreign exchange earner – 19% of export earnings

3. Export earnings = Food import bill The biggest employer – 20% employment in the economy Contribution to GDP – 6%

4. Map of Sri Lanka showing tea and coconut growing area Tea Coconut

5. Research Questions to be Investigated What are the baseline socioeconomic scenarios without climate change Why ? Helps measure how changes in socioeconomic conditions could affect the sensitivity of the sector to climate change

6. Approach Adopted for Investigation of these Questions Socioeconomic data were collected from published sources Stakeholder survey was conducted by the Economist (TRI) Data trends will be projected for the future (forecasted using a decomposition model)

7. Develop some economic models that project the changes in socioeconomic conditions due to climate change

8. Socioeconomic Data Trends Land use Demographic Input use Kernal products Non-kernal products

17. Wet basis 330g 49% Shell 155g 23% Total weight 673g Kernel 182g 27% Water 6g 1% 413 g 39% 124g 12% 339 g 32% 1053g 177g 17% Husk Dry basis Figure 3: Weight distribution of different components in a standard coconut in Sri Lanka Source: Samarajeewa (1983)

22. Socioeconomic Data & Trends in Tea Production

23. High Grown Tea (Upcountry)

24. High Grown Tea -3 Over the last 4 decades total production doesn’t show clear trend. Irregular pattern of production is mainly due to changes in the tea extent

25. High Grown Tea -2

26. High Grown Tea -3 Productivity shows an upward trend

27. Sample Data Agro-Ecological Regions in the High Grown Area are – WU1,WU2,WU3, IU1 and IU2 Historical Data collected from – Tea Estates in WU1,WU2 and IU2

28. Tea Production and Rain Fall Pattern There are three scenarios found: i)Reduction in No. of Wet Days per Month and Reduction in Monthly average Tea production – but no reduction in Monthly RF WU2 ii)Reduction in Total Monthly RF and Tea Production but there is increase in No.of Wet Days – IU 2 Iii)No Change in RF pattern and tea Production WU1

29. Scenario 2- IU2

32. Major Problems Encountered or Anticipated No reliable data are available for land use under coconuts, land fragmentation rate Too simple approaches to be employed to project the socioeconomic scenarios in the absence of climate change

33. Solutions for Overcoming Problems Have to live with unreliable data Explore the appropriate analytical approaches by means of literature survey and interactions with fellow researchers perhaps by working in their climate laboratories

34. THANK YOU