1. Limit update 1fb -1 extrapolation Thanks for inputs from Camila, Jose, Liwen, Bertrand, Li! Yuji Enari 2011.1.6 LPNHE Higgs meeting

2. Input: Signal yield (Camila, Jose) Camila got numbers, and put them into datacard file 110 GeV115 GeV120 GeV130 GeV140 GeV ε[%]Nevε[%]Nevε[%]Nevε[%]Nevε[%]Nev ggH33.813.2134.713.4036.214.8638.512.2839.49.27 VBF41.81.1542.81.2143.51.3644.71.1745.40.93 WH0.720.690.700.500.34 ZH0.390.370.390.280.19 ttH0.10 0.070.05 Total15.5715.7717.4114.3010.78

3. BG slope (comfirmed by Li) What we use is Marumi’s number. Here is output from Li xi = -0.02+/- 0.01(stats) ± 0.01(syst)

4. Signal shape Same as before, from Marc.

5. 95% CL Limit with 1fb-1. Mass point 95%CL +2  95%CL +1  95%CL 95%CL -1  95%CL -2  MH=110 GeV 0.951.35 2.22 3.654.94 MH=115 GeV 0.941.20 1.97 3.284.55 MH=120 GeV 0.920.98 1.83 2.853.90 MH=130 GeV 0.931.16 1.97 3.254.56 MH=140 GeV 0.971.58 2.65 3.155.79 Script to make plot!

6. Systematic uncertainty Reduced set of systematics. Source Nominal Gaussian only aCB +50% aCB -50% Resol. 0.5% Resol. 1.0% Lumi (-11%) Photon (-1%) Source Nominal Gaussian only Smeared parameter Lumi (-11%) Got all mass points! From Liwen!

7. Including systematics Mass pointNominalGaussian only Smeared param Lumi (-11%) MH=110 GeV 2.221.993.512.51 MH=115 GeV 1.971.902.822.25 MH=120 GeV 1.83------2.321.88 MH=130 GeV 1.971.902.822.05 MH=140 GeV 2.652.593.642.66

8. Whooops! Forgot to change the range. Better to update them. Ran 100*100 toy in each, about 24 hours to finish. Now another set of job running.

9. Systematic inclusion to the result Now trying to make all numbers which have done for sensitivity study. – Evaluate effect of systematic one by one. Need to combine. – Easiest solution is same as sensitivity study. – Otherwise, we need to generate S+B hypothesis in toy MC to evaluate all systematic effect at simultaneously. No sys in BG, but “xi” is nuisance parameter in the TOY.

11. Backup

12. Limit setting in Hfitter Slides from Francesco, Lydia, Nansi, 18/1/2010

13. A technical information We are using CCALI, If you would like to play – /sps/atlas/e/enari/Fitters/README_HowToRunHfitterAtLyon – Nicola’s Twiki ( https://twiki.cern.ch/twiki/bin/view/AtlasProtected/Hfitter ) is very useful! https://twiki.cern.ch/twiki/bin/view/AtlasProtected/Hfitter You can submit job by running run_sub.csh in HGGfitter/run directory. – You can control # of job and # of toy by changing run_sub.csh and template/test_v1.C Effect of statistics: # of Toy10020050010000 95% CL limit ratio 13.313.013.313.4 This number is low BG case (scaled down to current BG level) with 36 pb-1.

14. 95%CL limit ratio to SM with L=36pb -1 Mass point 95%CL +1  95%CL 95%CL -1  MH=110 GeV 9.06 16.4 27.3 MH=115 GeV 8.21 14.7 24.5 MH=120 GeV 7.39 13.4 22.8 MH=130 GeV 7.42 13.5 22.6 MH=140 GeV 8.98 16.4 28.3 Just scaling to L=1.0 fb -1, 95% CL upper limit is  3.

15. Systematic effect for MH = 120 GeV Source 95%CL +1  95%CL 95%CL -1  Nominal 7.39 13.4 22.8 Gaussian only 6.97 12.7 21.4 aCB +50% 7.06 12.8 21.8 aCB -50% 9.06 16.4 27.7 Resol. 0.5% 7.40 13.3 23.0 Resol. 1.0% 7.96 14.5 24.4 Lumi (-11%) 8.84 16.1 27.2 Photon (-1%) 8.00 14.5 24.6