1. Heading Using the NPD: Some pitfalls and issues Presentation to PLUG 13 September 2006 Andrew Ray Schools Analysis and Research Division, DfES

2. Heading Statistical bulletins based on analysis of the NPD

3. 3 PLASC variables PLASC FSM Ethnicity SEN Looked after children EAL Not covered here: variables linked to postcode

4. 4 FSM is limited as a proxy for social class FSM

5. 5 Code changes 2002 03 Ethnicity Data taken from Ray Godfreys Changes in Ethnicity Codes in the Pupil Level Annual Schools Census 2002-2003

6. 6 Local Authority variation in special school provision SEN

7. 7 Under-reporting of looked after children Looked after children Source: PLASC quality report on pupils in care

8. 8 Complex relationship with ethnicity EAL

9. 9 Attainment data Attainment Changing test structures Changing qualifications Changing point systems Ages and Key Stages Ceiling effects Use of marks data for sublevels

10. 10 Changes to KS3 English levels Levels and tests

11. 11 Key Stage 2: artificial increase in Bs Levels and tests

12. 12 Key Stage 1: the move to teacher assessment Levels and tests

13. 13 Additional qualifications Quals

14. 14 New GCSE points system introduced in 2004 Points GradeOld PointsNew Points A*858 A752 B646 C540 D434 E328 F222 G116 U/X/Q00 Gap between fail and G has increased New Points = (Old Points x 6) + (10 x number of passes at G or above) (but points not awarded for all qualifications under the old system)

15. 15 Age 15 or KS4 Ages and stages End of KS4 reporting allows for more flexible rates of learning. 98.8% of pupils at end of KS4 are 15, 0.3% were 14 and 0.9% were 16.

16. 16 Test scores are truncated Ceilings

17. 17 Marks and levels Sublevels

18. 18 Sublevels dont directly correspond to marks Sublevels

19. 19 Coverage of the NPD The NPD Pupils with incomplete records (2 examples) Not covered here: the extent of coverage of the independent sector pitfalls in choosing coverage, e.g. when to include selective schools or schools that are semi-independent (e.g. City Technology Colleges) whether or not to impute missing values

20. 20 Pupils with no PLASC or KS4 records The NPD Source: Trends in Attainment Gaps bulletin Appendix D

21. 21 Pupils with no PLASC records The NPD Source: Trends in Attainment Gaps bulletin Appendix D

22. 22 Issues for PLUG Future speakers: experts on PLASC or test data? Documentation: what improvements can be made? Further investigation: are there useful analyses that could illuminate some data issues? Can any common standards be agreed, or should everything be left to individual analyses?

23. 23 Useful links Bulletins: Trends in Attainment Gaps http://www.dfes.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SBU/b000665/index.shtml http://www.dfes.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SBU/b000665/index.shtml Characteristics of Low Attainers http://www.dfes.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SBU/b000588/index.shtml http://www.dfes.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SBU/b000588/index.shtml Variation in pupil progress http://www.dfes.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SBU/b000481/index.shtml http://www.dfes.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SBU/b000481/index.shtml Progress by pupil characteristics http://www.dfes.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SBU/b000402/index.shtm http://www.dfes.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SBU/b000402/index.shtm Other key publications: Results by pupil characteristics 2005 http://www.dfes.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SFR/s000640/index.shtml http://www.dfes.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SFR/s000640/index.shtml Ethnicity and education topic note http://publications.teachernet.gov.uk/default.aspx?PageFunction=productdetails&PageMode=publications&Product Id=DFES+0208+2006& http://publications.teachernet.gov.uk/default.aspx?PageFunction=productdetails&PageMode=publications&Product Id=DFES+0208+2006&