2. THIS LECTURE COVERS Background Level of Response (LR) ALSPAC Data at Age 12 Outcomes

3. THIS LECTURE COVERS Background Level of Response (LR) ALSPAC Data at Age 12 Outcomes

4. ALCOHOLISM RISK Multiple Characteristics and Genes

5. GENETIC RISK FACTORS Level of Response (LR) Impulsivity Psychiatric Disorders Alcohol Metabolizing Enzymes

6. LR RATIONALE Youth Drink for Effects If Need more, Will Drink More Then Heavy Drinking Affects Peers Expectations Stress

8. SRE TIME FRAME: DRINKS 1st 5 Recent Heaviest NEEDED TO: Times 3 Mo. Feel Effect Feel Dizzy or Slur Speech Stumble Fall Asleep

9. LR PREDICTS OUTCOME San Diego Study Australian Twins Danish Adoptees Colorado Twins COGA Kids ALSPAC Kids Pittsburgh Study

10. THIS LECTURE COVERS Background Level of Response (LR) ALSPAC Data at Age 12 Outcomes

11. BEFORE ALSPAC Subjects Age 18+ Not General Population Most From U.S.

12. ALSPAC DRINKERS AT 12 Age 12 Age 14 Age 12.4 13.9 Drinks/Week 2.63.4 a Max Drinks4.25.1 c % Problems2942 a

13. REGRESSIONS AT 12 MAX QUANT PROBLEMS 1 st 5.47.24 ITEMS--- WT.16--- R² (%)27.59.9

14. THIS LECTURE COVERS Background Level of Response (LR) ALSPAC Data at Age 12 Outcomes

15. ALSPAC DRINKERS 12/14 Age 12 Age 14 Age 12.4 13.9 Drinks/Week 2.63.4 a Max Drinks4.25.1 c % Problems2942 a

16. FHalc LR ALCOUTPEER EXPECT COPE PROJECTED

17. PROSPECTIVE CORRELATION LRPEEROUTSEX PEER.38 b OUT.35 b.37 b SEX.05.12 a -.04 AGE.05.11 a.05.17 b ab a p<.05, b p<.001

18. AGE PEER LR ALCOUT.25.19 SEX.28.37.08.09

19. 1,905 CROSS SECTIONAL Boys = 44% Age = 17.8 Alcohol Freq = 5 D/mo Q Usual = 4.6 Drinks Q Max = 13.4 Drinks Problems = 49.5%

20. 1,905 ALSPAC 17-YEAR-OLDS LROUTPEEREXPECTCOPEGENDER OUT.35 PEER.07.51 EXPECT.15.50.24 COPE.12.50.33.50 GENDER -.11-.14.01 -.14.04 AGE.02.11.05 -.02.01 -.04

21. GENDER AGE COPE PEEREXPECT LR ALCOUT.24.59.07.12.05

23. FUTURE DIRECTIONS Prospective With Full Sample Follow-up Later Onset Kids Prevention Trial

25. DEMOGRAPHY & ALCOHOL HX (N = 401) T1 Age 13.2 (0.41) T2 Age 17.8 (0.33) % Female 65.1 T1 SRE 2.0 (1.33) Age 1 st drink Age 1 st drink 13.0 (1.64) T2 Drinks/d 2.8 (1.14)/ 4-5 drinks Days/mo drink Days/mo drink 2.2 (0.77)/ 2-3 days % any problems % any problems89.1 # problems # problems 4.5 (3.36)

26. ALSPAC LR ALCOUT.24.59 GENDER.05 COPE EXPECT PEER.07.12.46.32.24.17.39

27. HYPOTHESES Drink quantity will Low LR benefit > high LR Group A low LR benefit most

28. PREVENTION TRIAL N = 64 Students Age 18.5 58% Female Race (%) Anglo: 40 Asian: 43 Hispanic: 14 Other: 3

29. PROTOCOL Questionnaire to Random Students ~70% Response Two Prevention Groups Both based on: MI Feedback Teach Skills Group A = LR-Based Group B = State of the Art Four 45-Min Internet Sessions

30. USUAL DRINKS ACROSS TIME N=64 PREVIDEO 41 MO. FUCHANGE % LOW LR LR-Based 5.03.73.0-40 SOTA 5.24.44.3-17 HIGH LR LR- Based 5.13.23.4-33 SOTA 4.92.92.2-55 Timep<.001 LR x GPp=.04 LR x GP x Timep=.06

31. PILOT BASELINE DATA Group A Group B D/mo drink 5.04.5 Usual drinks/d 5.1 # problems 0.80.7 SRE 3.7

32. MAXIMUM DRINKS 6 mo2 wk Wk 4 Wk 8 6 mo2 wk Wk 4 Wk 8 Total: Total: 9.2 5.7 3.4 3.9 Low LR: Low LR: 9.8 6.5 1.9 4.6 High LR: High LR: 8.6 4.9 4.9 3.1 BeforeAfter Significant: LR x Time LR x Group x Time