2. LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS KAZAKHSTAN PART 2: EARTHQUAKE Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

3. KAZAKSTAN COPING WITH EARTHQUAKE RISK IN AN AREA OF CONTINENTIAL COLLISION

4. LOCATION OF KAZAKHSTAN

5. THE M8.4 CHILIK EARTHQUAKE OF JULY 31, 1889  One of the world’s largest historic intraplate reverse- faulting events.  Many landslides occurred in the region of the Chilik and Charyn rivers and in the mountains..

6. THE M8.4 CHILIK EARTHQUAKE OF JULY 31, 1889 (continued)  Many buildings collapsed from the strong ground shaking..

7. RECENT EARTHQUAKE: 11:28 PM, MAY 31, 2012  A strong, shallow, but much smaller earthquake occurred near the Altyn Emel National Park area, a sparsely populated part of Eastern Kazakhstan, about 50 km from the epicenter of the 1889 Chilik quake.

8. TO BECOME EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENT IS THE CHALLENGE

9. HAZARDSHAZARDS ELEMENTS OF RISK EXPOSUREEXPOSURE VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATION RISKRISK

10. RISK ASSESSMENT FOR A COMMUNITY RISK = HAZARD x EXPOSURE SPECIFIC HAZARD: EXPOSURE: PEOPLE BUILDING STOCK INFRASTRUCTURE GOVERNMENT AND BUSINESS ENTERPRISE

11. COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS NATURAL HAZARDS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCE PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY IENCE FOUR PILLARS OF RESILIENCE

12. A DISASTER OCCURS WHEN THE NATIONAL POLICIES ALLOW IT TO BE … UN—PREPARED UN—PROTECTED UN—ABLE TO RESPOND EFFECTIVELY UN (NON)--RESILIENT

13. THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE 1. PREPAREDNESS (HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS; PREDICTIONS, FORECASTS AND WARNING; DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIOS; INSURANCE; INTELLIGENT COMMUNITY); …

14. KAZAKHSTAN: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS WHERE WILL THE NEXT BIG QUAKE OCCUR? WHEN? THE PHYSICAL EFFECTS? HOW BIG OR SEVERE? WHAT IS AT RISK? THEIR VULNERABILITIES? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHERE WILL THE NEXT BIG QUAKE OCCUR? WHEN? THE PHYSICAL EFFECTS? HOW BIG OR SEVERE? WHAT IS AT RISK? THEIR VULNERABILITIES? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

15. KAZAKHSTAN: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS WHERE WILL THE NEXT BIG QUAKE OCCUR? WHEN? THE PHYSICAL EFFECTS? HOW BIG OR SEVERE? WHAT IS AT RISK? THEIR VULNERABILITIES? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHERE WILL THE NEXT BIG QUAKE OCCUR? WHEN? THE PHYSICAL EFFECTS? HOW BIG OR SEVERE? WHAT IS AT RISK? THEIR VULNERABILITIES? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

16. THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE (Continued) 2. PROTECTION (IMPLEMENTATION OF BUILDING CODES AND LIFELINE STANDARDS; SITE-SPECIFIC DESIGN AND PERFORMANCE STANDARDS FOR ESSENTIAL AND CRITICAL FACILITIES) …

17. FROM UN—PROTECTED TO PROTECTED

18. IMPORTANT BUILDINGS AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE NEED PROTECTION

19. THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE (Continued) 3. EARLY WARNING (but not yet for earthquakes (ADVANCE WARNING MESSAGES, EVACUATION TO SAFE HAVENS, MASS CARE, RETURN TO HOMES OR TEMPORARY SHELTERS…)

20. FROM UN—WARNED TO SAFELY EVACUATED

21. THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE (Continued) 4. EMERGENCY RESPONSE (EVACUATION; EMERGENCY MEDICAL; MASS CARE; SEARCH AND RESCUE; EMERGENCY TRANSPORTATION, LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE)…

22. FROM UN—ABLE TO RESPOND EFECTIVELY TO “INTELLIGENT” RESPONSE

23. THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE (Continued) 4. RECOVERY & RECONSTRUCTION; (INSURANCE INDEMNIFICATION, LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND GLOBAL BUSINESS RESUMPTION; POST- DISASTER STUDIES FOR PRE- DISASTER PREPAREDNESS, …)

24. FROM A UN (NON)— RESILIENT CITY TO A RESILIENT CITY

25. A CITY BECOMES DISASTER RESILIENT WHEN IT IS … PREPARED FOR THE INEVITABLE NATURAL HAZARDS THAT ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT THE WRONG TIME AND IN THE WRONG PLACE RELATIVE TO THE CITY’S SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS

26. A CITY BECOMES DISASTER RESILIENT WHEN … ITS PEOPLE, BUILDINGS, INFRASTRUCTURE, ESSENTIAL AND CRITICAL FACILITIES ARE PROTECTED BY CODES & STANDARDS AGAINST THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF LIKELY NATURAL HAZARDS

27. A CITY BECOMES DISASTER RESILIENT WHEN … IT IS ABLE TO: A) RESPOND EFFECTIVELY IN REAL TIME TO MOVE PEOLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY, B) MEET THEIR NEEDS IN A CRISIS ENVIRONMENT, AND C) PROTECT ASSETS, WITH AND WITHOUT HELP

28. A CITY BECOMES DISASTER RESILIENT WHEN … IT’S POLICIES NOT ONLY RESIST DISASTERS WITHOUT FAILING, BUT ALSO ARE MANDATES TO LOOK BEYOND TO A FUTURE OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMNT

29. DISASTER RESILIENCE INTEGRATES RESEARCH AND SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE GAINED FROM “DISASTER LABORATORIES” WITH EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES AND THE COMMUNITY’S POLITICAL PROCESS TO ADOPT REALISTIC PUBLIC POLICIES FORD

30. COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE WHAT’S NEEDED: TO FIND THE COMMON AGENDA (CA) OF TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS WHAT’S NEEDED: TO FIND THE COMMON AGENDA (CA) OF TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS POLITICAL SOLUTIONS CA

31. THE EFFECTIVE SOLUTION FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE FACT: THE COMMON AGENDA IS BASED ON EACH COMMUNITY’S UNIQUE STAPLE FACTORS FACT: THE COMMON AGENDA IS BASED ON EACH COMMUNITY’S UNIQUE STAPLE FACTORS TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS POLITICAL SOLUTIONS STAPLE FACTORS PP TT SS OO CA