1. Ventures, Inc. 1 Effects-based Coalition Operations Maris “Buster” McCrabb KSCO Symposium 23 April 2002

2. Ventures, Inc. 2 My talk today consists of… u A brief description of the elements that comprise the theory of effects-based operations (EBO) u A brief discussion on the implications of EBO for knowledge systems in a coalition (non- homogeneous) environment u The briefest discussion on framing, beliefs and mechanism (I.e., my paper) u An advertisement for the AFRL/IF EBO ATD research

3. Ventures, Inc. 3 Indicators EBO in One Slide Bridge 4 Destroyed Destroy Bridge 4 Disrupt Delivery of POL Effect (Results) Tasks (Actions) Destroy Bridge 6 Plan Indicators Bridge 6 Destroyed Physical effects that lead to… …desired behavioral outcomes. Objects Mechanism (Causes)

4. Ventures, Inc. 4 Effects-Based Operations The challenge is predicting & assessing what physical actions produce the desired behavioral effects over some period of time "Effects based operations is a methodology for planning, executing and assessing operations to attain the effects required to achieve desired national security objectives.“ AFDD 1 Actions cause.. Attack Marshalling Yards …direct effects and.....indirect effects Normandy Battlefield Isolated German War Economy Collapsed Rail Movement Disrupted Mechanism (cumulative) (cascading)

5. Ventures, Inc. 5 Operation Allied Force Milosevic accedes to NATO’s conditions (total Desired Effect) Air Attacks (Military Effect) Russian Diplomacy (Diplomatic Effect) Sanctions, etc. (Economic Effect) Kosovar Albanian Attacks (Military Effect) Buildup of NATO Ground Power (Military-Diplomatic Effect) Solidarity of NATO (Diplomatic Effect)

6. Ventures, Inc. 6 Operation Allied Force (2) Milosevic accedes to NATO’s conditions (total Desired Effect) Air Attacks on Strategic Targets Air Attacks on Fielded Forces Targets Air Attacks on National C2 Targets Air Attacks on Military-Industrial Targets

7. Ventures, Inc. 7 Operation Allied Force (3) Milosevic accedes to NATO’s conditions (total Desired Effect) Degraded National C2 Attacks on Infrastructure (e.g., bridges) Attacks on Electrical Power (e.g., plants) Degraded Ability to C2 FRY Forces Degraded Ability to Resupply Forces Desired Military Effects Physical Actions Degraded IADS Attack Serbian AF (e.g., aircraft, airbases) Avoid Serbian SHORAD (e.g., fly above) Freedom to Attack Desired Political Effects

8. Ventures, Inc. 8 Information domain Cognitive domain Physical domain “ground truth” Organization (structure, functions, capacity) impacts Observations (indicators), signals, communication Mental models, decision-making Thanks to Yuri Levchuk, Aptima, Inc. The challenge is predicting & assessing what physical actions produce the desired behavioral effects over some period of time Tasks for Knowledge Systems The “domain” Of KS?

9. Ventures, Inc. 9 Semantic Network Thanks to Gil Kuperman, AFRL/HECA

10. Situation Awareness Thickly Shared Thinly Shared Shared through mediation All dimensional, multilateral n-dimensional, bilateral n-dimensional, bilateral Belief Structures (Framing) Models of (Simple) Causality Actor B Situation Awareness Belief Structures (Framing) Models of (Complex) Causality Actor A Situation Awareness Belief Structures (Framing) Models of (Complex) Causality Actor N (not all shown)

11. AFRL EBO ATD External Relationships OrganizationRelationship AFC2ISRC/ESC AFRL/HE AFSAA Boeing DARPA JWAC JFCOM NAIC Our sponsors Working technology transition via AT AOC Working to incorporate non-conventional EBO (IO) capabilities Models for Homeland Defense CRDA: EBO & Multi-sensor C2 Aircraft Leveraging TS & adversary response work Provided FY01 funds; FY02 funds planned Leveraging their TS models: adversary response work Part of Joint EBO team Catalyst for JFCOM EBO Concepts Leveraging their TS models: telecommunications, C2 Process Plan to provide some FY02 funding

12. AFRL EBO Related Research Efforts Adversarial/Behavioral Modeling – Basic Research Initiatives (6.1) – Models of Defeat for EBO (UMass) – Adversary Intent Inference for Predictive Battlespace Awareness (UConn) COA Development for Time Critical Targeting – Applied Research Initiative (6.2) – Effects-based COA development for TCTs – Software agents for monitoring and alert Process Assessment and Metrics for EBO – Phase II SBIR – Assess current AOC and JTF processes for incorporation of EBO – Develop MOEs, MOPs, MOMs to measure success of EBO – Develop prototype Process Assessment Tool to automate metrics use