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1 Longevity 5: Fifth International Longevity Risk and Capital Market Solutions Conference (www.longevity-risk.org) Professor David Blake Director Pensions.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Longevity 5: Fifth International Longevity Risk and Capital Market Solutions Conference (www.longevity-risk.org) Professor David Blake Director Pensions."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Longevity 5: Fifth International Longevity Risk and Capital Market Solutions Conference (www.longevity-risk.org) Professor David Blake Director Pensions Institute Cass Business School d.blake@city.ac.uk September 2009

2 2 Previous conferences n Longevity 1: u Cass Business School, London 2005 n Longevity 2: u Chicago 2006 n Longevity 3: u Taipei 2007 n Longevity 4: u Amsterdam 2008

3 3 26 Core global risks, but longevity risk not included! Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks 2008

4 4 Longevity risk is a real, underestimated and slow-burning risk

5 5 Cost of longevity risk n Global pension liabilities = $23trn n Roger Lowenstein* in While America Aged (2008) discusses “how pension debts ruined General Motors, stopped the New York subways, bankrupted San Diego, and loom as the next financial crisis” * Author of When Genius Failed

6 6 n Longevity risk needs to be quantified and managed n Tools are now being developed to do both: u In insurance and reinsurance companies u In the capital markets n Academics are also interested in analyzing longevity risk and capital market solutions n But growth has been slowed by the Credit Crunch and the political dimension has been missing Dealing with longevity risk

7 7 Six longevity swaps in 2008-09 DateHedgerTypeSize (£m) Term (yrs) FormatIntermediary Jan 2008LucidaInsN/A10 Index-based hedge; exposure placed with capital market investors JPMorgan July 2008Canada Life Ins50040 Exposure placed with capital market investors JPMorgan Feb 2009Abbey LifeIns1500Run- off Reinsurance contract Deutsche Bank Mar 2009AvivaIns47510 Exposure placed with capital market investors & Partner RE RBS June 2009BabcockPF500-75050 Reinsurance contract with Pac Life Re Credit Suisse July 2009RSAIns1900Run- off Reinsurance contract with Rothesay Life; combined with inflation & interest rate swaps Goldman Sachs

8 8 n Continuing with our strategy of bringing together practitioners and academics from a variety of relevant disciplines n Extending our community to include policymakers and their advisers from key countries with extensive longevity risk exposure in both the public and private sectors n These are the aims of Longevity 5 n Longevity 6 will be at UNSW in September 2010 What needs to happen

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