1. The Use of Demographic Scenarios in Cross-authority Plan-making Graham Gardner Nottingham City Council Steve Buffery Derbyshire County Council Richard Cooper Nottinghamshire County Council (formerly)

2. Planning Policy Context Collaborative Working in Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire Growth scenarios used in the projections Using the scenarios – Greater Nottingham Conclusions & questions Outline

3. Where do we go from here?!

4. Before, with a Regional Plan Regional Plan Three Cities Sub-regional Strategy Greater Nottingham HMA City & district LDFs / local plans Derby HMA Leicestershire HMA Northern Sub-Regional Strategy …etc…

5. After – with Localism Northern (officer) liaison group ? Greater Nottingham HMA Aligned work Derby HMA groupingLeicestershire ? City & district LDFs / local plans NPPF ?

6. After – with Localism Northern (officer) liaison group ? Greater Nottingham HMA Aligned work Derby HMA groupingLeicestershire ? City & district LDFs / local plans NPPF ? Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire

7. NNDD Housing Market Areas Northern (part of Sheffield HMA) Nottingham Core, including Erewash (Derbyshire)

8. RSS to DDNN Region - EMRADDNN (2N2D LEP area) Areas4017 lower + 2 upper tier Policy useEMRA RSS policiesLDFs & local plans (NOT County-level) Base2008-based2010-based & later Other usesRetail – Transport (MMS) – Health Various as required by all 19 stakeholders. Also for others, e.g. Objectors

9. Funding from East Midlands Councils (formerly EMRA) Steering group – 4 Upper tier & two district representatives Six key scenarios commissioned from Edge Analytics Scenarios were discussed and agreed with all the authorities in both Counties. Derbyshire were current users of Popgroup – would carry on as bureau: costings on a per run basis. Commissioning the Projections

10. Officers Trained on demographics, modelling & principles Members informed & educated on scenarios & outcomes Understanding dynamics and outcomes – what if. No Right Answer Planning decisions on housing in the Local Plan process Educating users

11. The use of scenarios A selection of possibilities to inform plan-making Not to determine a right housing provision figure However – NPPF requires an Objectively Assessed Housing Need – Inspectors focussed on this.

12. Dwelling–led Scenario - Past house-building Natural Change Scenario – Births & deaths; no migration Net Nil-Migration Scenario - Balanced in- & out- migration Long-Term Migration Scenario – Past migration levels Employment-led Scenario – Based on jobs SNPP Scenario - 2008-based ONS Projections. The Growth Scenarios

13. Increase in homes over previous 8 years. ASKS - What would past housing market output mean for the future? Average over a ten year period would iron out – –Economic & market peaks and troughs –Phasing of plans & release of allocations Dwelling-led – Continuing Past House Building Rates

14. Assumes no one moves in or out of the area. Shows the outcome of ageing the existing population. More housing due to – –increasing births, –people living longer, and –decline in average household size. Not realistic, distorted by modelling assumptions, used with caution –Inflation in student areas - transit population ages –High migration areas age structure not realistic –Elderly retirement areas – deflation due to increasing deaths Natural change

15. What if in-migration to and out-migration from each authority were in balance? Age structure of those migrating out from the area are different from those migrating in - resulting housing needs can be quite different. Illustrates what if we only built for our own people Can be realistic. Scenario – Net nil migration

16. Long-term (8 year) migration trend Longer past period (2001 to 2009) than ONS projections Attempts to iron out peaks and troughs in migration More stable & typical (but still not a forecast). Variation due to:- Economic fortunes? (including industrial closure) International migration, e.g. EU. Plan stages Data limitations meant 2001 set a limit. Scenario – Migration-led

17. No Increase in Jobs 2008/09 job totals constant Maintain the same labour force in the area(s) ONLY if no commuting. Baseline to evaluate Growth ambitions. It needed careful thought about what jobs meant – workers? FTEs? Job growth proved difficult to manage. Commuting levels remain constant Caused concern for some districts, job retention needed many houses. Scenario – Employment-led

18. ONS Population Projections To check the workings of the model. It replicates the population output of the ONS 2008-based population projections. These projections are based on migration trends over the previous 5 year period (2003-2008). Very close to the CLG household projections. This scenario shows the housing requirement for nationally published official data. Scenario – SNPP

19. Greater Nottingham Scenarios - Housing numbers (17-year)

20. Nottingham and Broxtowe projections compared – Population NOTTINGHAM CITYBROXTOWE

21. Challenges and Use of Projections - Greater Nottingham Strategy aimed for in-migration – Projections showed this to be so. Jobs / population mapped –Inter-dependence of the City & surrounding area. Planned housing Commuting Distribution of jobs Land availability Employment land PAS response – Not planning for growth – –Employment related to labour force

22. Jobs Growth versus Workforce

23. Alternative headship rate trajectories Actual households falling behind projection. Imply larger households Economic conditions Slow housing market Higher student numbers (larger households) International migrants with higher household occupancy rates? Used 2010 as base to carry household growth forward on 3 different trends. NB Edge did this work. Three authorities showed effects – household representation rates adjusted.

24. Alternative Household Growth

25. Latest Household Projections CLG 2011 interim household projections have confirmed the household rate work. But population aspect of new projections is more doubtful.

26. Working together

27. Other work elsewhere Mansfield District Council & Derby HMA (3 Las) –different employment / economic activity & unemployment futures Sheffield City Region (9 Las) have undertaken similar scenario work across the area – –General agreement that the scenarios were valid. –Northern HMA (4 of 9) concerned it doesnt compromise their more advanced plan-making –Issues about Sheffields growth emerging Ashfield, Derbyshire Dales & others – –Sub-district projections Nottinghamshire policy-based (housing plans) forecasts.

28. Some Conclusions / Lessons Commuting & Jobs Officer support & confidence-building. District Councillor responsibility Useful to show implications of decisions Member attitudes can still rule Always need to deal with interactions across boundaries

29. Questions raised How do we model for growing employment? – when tried it did not give reasonable outcomes How do we persuade people to use instead of ONS for resource planning? How do you demonstrate Objectively Assessed Housing Need to an Inspector? Have we got international migration right?

30. Links GN documentation & examination – –www.gngrowthpoint.comwww.gngrowthpoint.com Mansfield - Google – Mansfield how many dwellings? Ashfield – Google – Population Household Forecasts Ashfield