1. Research Methods
Unit II

2. Hindsight bias
Tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it
The “I knew it all along” phenomenon

3. Overconfidence
Tendency to think we know more than we do

4. Assignment
Answer the following questions in complete sentences. You will be adding more to this later.
Give an example of hindsight bias from your own life.
Give an example of overconfidence from your own life.

5. Astrology E = Aries B = Taurus C = Gemini A = Cancer F = Leo D = Virgo
K = Libra
H = Scorpio
I = Sagittarius
L = Capricorn
J = Aquarius
G = Pisces

6. Testing hypotheses with descriptive methods
Case study - studies one person in depth in hopes of revealing universal principles
Survey - uses a representative sample of people to estimate attitudes or reported behaviors of a whole population
Population - all the cases in a group being studied from which samples may be drawn
Random sample - every member of a population has an equal chance of inclusion

7. Naturalistic observation - observing and recording behavior in a natural environment

8. Assignment –cont-
Give an example of a study when researchers might use a case study.
Give an example of an experiment when researchers might use a survey. How could they ensure a random sampling of the population?

9. Correlation
Measures how closely two things vary together and thus how well either one predicts the other
Graphed on a scatterplot and measured with a correlation coefficient
Positive = two sets of scores rise or fall together
Negative = two sets of scores relate inversely
zero = weak correlation
CORRELATION DOES NOT PROVE CAUSATION

10. Illusory correlation
The perception of a relationship where none exists

11. Assignment –cont-
Give an example from your life of an illusory correlation.
What can you conclude from this statement: Eating saturated fat and the likelihood of contracting cancer are positively correlated.

12. Experimentation
Random assignment - assigning participants to experimental and control groups by chance
Double blind procedure - neither the research participants nor the research staff know whether participants have received the treatment or a placebo
Placebo effect - experimental results caused by expectations alone

13. Experimental group - group exposed to treatment
Control group - group not exposed to treatment
Independent variable (IV) - experimental factor that is manipulated
Confounding variable - factor other than the IV that might produce an effect in an experiment
Dependent variable - outcome factor; variable that may change in response to manipulations of the IV

14. Statistical significance - observed difference is likely not due to chance variation between the samples

15. Assignment –cont-
Develop a hypothesis and an experiment to test the hypothesis. Indicate the experimental and control groups, and independent, dependent and confounding variables.
Someone participating in a study on the effects of alcohol on perception is told by the experimenter that he has been assigned to the high dose group. What is the problem with this?

16. Things to know for your first Psych test
Nature vs. nurture
Hindsight bias
Overconfidence
Hypothesis
Research methods – What is it? When is it used? Benefits and limitations?
Case study
Survey
Natural observation
Ethics in research
Correlational studies
Positive correlation
Negative correlation
Correlation coefficient
Relationship between correlation and causation
Experiments
Independent variable
Dependent variable
Control group
Experimental group
Random sample
Population
Placebos