2. Exploring Relationships Between Variables Chapter 7 Scatterplots and Correlation

3. Chapter 7 Objectives Scatterplots  Scatterplots  Explanatory and response variables  Interpreting scatterplots  Outliers  Categorical variables in scatterplots Correlation  The correlation coefficient “r”  r does not distinguish x and y  r has no units  r ranges from -1 to +1  Influential points

4. Basic Terminology  Univariate data: 1 variable is measured on each sample unit or population unit e.g. height of each student in a sample  Bivariate data: 2 variables are measured on each sample unit or population unit e.g. height and GPA of each student in a sample; (caution: data from 2 separate samples is not bivariate data)

5. Same goals with bivariate data that we had with univariate data  Graphical displays and numerical summaries  Seek overall patterns and deviations from those patterns  Descriptive measures of specific aspects of the data

6. StudentBeersBlood Alcohol 150.1 220.03 390.19 470.095 530.07 630.02 740.07 850.085 980.12 1030.04 1150.06 1250.05 1360.1 1470.09 1510.01 1640.05 Here, we have two quantitative variables for each of 16 students. 1) How many beers they drank, and 2) Their blood alcohol level (BAC) We are interested in the relationship between the two variables: How is one affected by changes in the other one?

7. Scatterplots  Useful method to graphically describe the relationship between 2 quantitative variables

8. StudentBeersBAC 150.1 220.03 390.19 470.095 530.07 630.02 740.07 850.085 980.12 1030.04 1150.06 1250.05 1360.1 1470.09 1510.01 1640.05 Scatterplot: Blood Alcohol Content vs Number of Beers In a scatterplot, one axis is used to represent each of the variables, and the data are plotted as points on the graph.

9. Focus on Three Features of a Scatterplot Look for an overall pattern regarding … 1. Shape - ? Approximately linear, curved, up-and-down? 2. Direction - ? Positive, negative, none? 3. Strength - ? Are the points tightly clustered in the particular shape, or are they spread out? … and deviations from the overall pattern: Outliers 

10. Scatterplot: Fuel Consumption vs Car Weight. x=car weight, y=fuel cons.  (x i, y i ): (3.4, 5.5) (3.8, 5.9) (4.1, 6.5) (2.2, 3.3) (2.6, 3.6) (2.9, 4.6) (2, 2.9) (2.7, 3.6) (1.9, 3.1) (3.4, 4.9)

11. Explanatory (independent) variable: number of beers Response (dependent) variable: blood alcohol content x y Explanatory and response variables A response variable measures or records an outcome of a study. An explanatory variable explains changes in the response variable. Typically, the explanatory or independent variable is plotted on the x axis, and the response or dependent variable is plotted on the y axis.

12. SAT Score vs Proportion of Seniors Taking SAT 2005 NC 74% 1010 IW IL

13. Chapter 7 Objectives Correlation  The correlation coefficient “r”  r does not distinguish x and y  r has no units  r ranges from -1 to +1  Influential points

14. The correlation coefficient is a measure of the direction and strength of the linear relationship between 2 quantitative variables. It is calculated using the mean and the standard deviation of both the x and y variables. The correlation coefficient "r" Correlation can only be used to describe quantitative variables. Categorical variables don’t have means and standard deviations.

15. Correlation: Fuel Consumption vs Car Weight r =.9766

16. Example: calculating correlation  (x 1, y 1 ), (x 2, y 2 ), (x 3, y 3 )  (1, 3) (1.5, 6) (2.5, 8) Automate calculation of the correlation! (Excel, statcrunch, calculator, etc.)

17. Properties of Correlation  r is a measure of the strength of the linear relationship between x and y.  No units [like demand elasticity in economics (-infinity, 0)]  -1 < r < 1

18. Properties (cont.) r ranges from -1 to+1 "r" quantifies the strength and direction of a linear relationship between 2 quantitative variables. Strength: how closely the points follow a straight line. Direction: is positive when individuals with higher X values tend to have higher values of Y.

19. Properties of Correlation (cont.)  r = -1 only if y = a + bx with slope b<0  r = +1 only if y = a + bx with slope b>0 y = 1 + 2x y = 11 - x

20. Properties (cont.) High correlation does not imply cause and effect CARROTS: Hidden terror in the produce department at your neighborhood grocery  Everyone who ate carrots in 1920, if they are still alive, has severely wrinkled skin!!!  Everyone who ate carrots in 1865 is now dead!!!  45 of 50 17 yr olds arrested in Raleigh for juvenile delinquency had eaten carrots in the 2 weeks prior to their arrest !!!

21. Properties (cont.) Cause and Effect  There is a strong positive correlation between the monetary damage caused by structural fires and the number of firemen present at the fire. (More firemen-more damage)  Improper training? Will no firemen present result in the least amount of damage?

22. Properties (cont.) Cause and Effect  r measures the strength of the linear relationship between x and y; it does not indicate cause and effect  correlation r =.935 x = fouls committed by player; y = points scored by same player (1,2) (24,75) (1,0) (18,59) (9,9) (3,7) (5,35) (20,46) (1,0) (3,2) (22,57) The correlation is due to a third “lurking” variable – playing time