1. 1 Monica Bansal and Michael Eichler Department of Transportation Planning Presentation to the TPB Technical Committee December 5, 2008 Progress on “CLRP Aspirations” & “What Would it Take?” Scenarios TPB SCENARIO STUDY

2. 2 CLRP Aspirations Draws on past studies and public outreach to provide an ambitious yet attainable vision of land use and transportation for the 2010 CLRP update and to eventually serve as an unconstrained long range plan. Starts with COG regional CO 2 goals and assesses what scales and combinations of interventions will be necessary to achieve the goal for the transportation sector. What Would it Take? The Two New Scenarios

3. 3 Study Timeline

4. 4 CLRP Aspirations Draws on past scenarios (5 transportation/land use scenarios and 2 value pricing scenarios) to provide an ambitious yet attainable vision of land use and transportation for the 2010 CLRP update. Starts with CO2 goals (80% below 2005 levels in 2050 and 20% reduction by 2020) and assesses what scales and combinations of interventions will be necessary to achieve the goal. What Would it Take? The Two New Scenarios

5. 5 Baseline 1. Round 7.1 Cooperative Forecast 2. 2008 CLRP RMAS Land Use/Transportation Scenarios 1. More Households Scenario 2. Households In Scenario 3. Jobs Out Scenario 4. Region Undivided Scenario 5. Transit-Oriented Development Scenario Value Pricing Scenarios 1. “DC and Parkways Restrained” Public Outreach/Feedback on Previous Scenarios The Starting Point

6. 6 Land Use Decisions Supportive Transit Goal: To move jobs and housing closer together to create highly accessible and developed areas, and achieve more efficient transportation systems Pricing Options Address congestion through pricing of new and/or existing lanes Provide alternatives through enhanced transit Concentrating projected growth in activity centers and existing/planned transit stations Consistent review and refinement by planning directors Use menu of transit options from past scenarios Connect activity centers Review by Regional Bus Subcommittee Building the Scenario

7. 7 “Within Reach” 1. Land use shifts should be within reach for inclusion in the COG Cooperative Forecast 2. Transportation projects should be financially within reach through tax revenues, developer contributions, or pricing. Scenario Criteria

8. 8 CLRP Aspirations: Land Use Component

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12. 12 CLRP Aspirations: Transportation Component

13. 13 Existing system of activity centers and high quality transit shows mis- match. Many transit stations without activity and many activity centers without high-quality transit. Existing System

14. 14 The transit projects in the CLRP work to address some of these concerns. CLRP Projects Columbia Pike Streetcar Corridor Cities Transitway Bi-County Transitway Crystal City/Potomac Yard Transitway Dulles Metrorail Anacostia Streetcar

15. 15 Additional projects evaluated under RMAS should be carried forward, with minor modification to provide transit service to additional activity centers. Recommended RMAS Projects US 1 Transitway Extend Purple Line to New Carrollton Georgia Ave Transitway VRE Extension to Haymarket

16. 16 A value pricing study completed by the TPB in February of 2008 evaluated a regional network of variably priced lanes, made up of new capacity and selected existing facilities. Studied Network of Variably Priced Lanes

17. 17 A regional network of BRT operating mostly on the priced lanes will provide high- quality transit service to nearly all activity centers in the region. BRT Network Recommended for Scenario Study

18. 18 BRT to Provide Rail-Like Level of Service The Shirlington Transit Station in Arlington, VA. BRT stations will provide many features to decrease boarding time: All-door, level boarding Off-board payment Room for 60’ articulated multi-door buses Other Operating Details: 12 minute peak headways 30 minute off-peak headways 45 MPH on priced lanes 15 MPH on priority corridor network Circulator service in activity centers

19. 19 This network will provide another layer of high- quality transit on top of existing and proposed transit services. Full Scenario Transit Network

20. 20 Transportation Component of the CLRP Aspirations Scenario Evaluates a regional network of priced lanes that serves as the right- of-way for a high-quality Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) network. Uses previously studied transportation facilities as starting points –2008 CLRP Baseline –Regional network of variably priced lanes –RMAS transit Focuses accessibility improvements on regional activity centers –Direct access ramps from priced lanes to activity centers –BRT stations serve activity centers, Metro stations, park-and-ride lots –Include RMAS projects that provide access to activity centers –New activity centers proposed: Fort Detrick, Wheaton, Westphalia and Fort Belvoir Makes use of WMATA Priority Corridor Network (PCN) to provide service to the urban core. Summary

21. 21 CLRP Aspirations Draws on past scenarios (5 transportation/land use scenarios and 2 value pricing scenarios) to provide an ambitious yet attainable vision of land use and transportation for the 2010 CLRP update. Starts with CO2 goals (80% below 2005 levels in 2050 and 20% reduction by 2020) and assesses what scales and combinations of interventions will be necessary to achieve the goal. What Would it Take? The Two New Scenarios

22. 22 Fuel Efficiency Fuel Carbon Intensity 3 categories of strategies to reduce mobile CO2 emissions Travel Efficiency Reduce VMT through changes in land use, travel behavior, prices Reduce congestion Improve operational efficiency Beyond CAFE standards [currently 35 mpg by 2020] Alternative fuels (biofuels, hydrogen, electricity) Goal: To reduce CO2 emissions by 10% in 2012, and 20% and 80% below 2005 levels in 2012, 2020 and 2050 respectively Setting up the WWIT Scenario FLEET USE of FLEET

23. 23 1. Effectiveness 2. Cost-effectiveness 3. Timeframe for Implementation Analyzing the WWIT Scenario 3 categories of analysis for each strategy

24. 24 Fuel Efficiency Fuel Carbon Intensity Travel Efficiency Reduce VMT through changes in land use, travel behavior, prices Reduce congestion Improve operational efficiency Beyond CAFE standards [currently 35 mpg by 2020] Alternative fuels (biofuels, hydrogen, electricity) What can we do with the fleet?

25. 25 What can we get with CAFE? 2010 Travel and CO 2 Emissions 8-Hour Ozone Non-Attainment Area VMT (Billions) - Annual %CO 2 Emissions (Mil. Annual Tons) % Passenger Cars 19.0647%6.7624% Light Duty Trucks (SUVs, etc) 18.9446%15.3856% Heavy Duty (Trucks, Buses, etc) 2.947%5.4620% Total 40.95100%27.60100%

26. 26 Characteristics of the Region’s Vehicle Fleet

27. 27 Fuel Efficiency Fuel Carbon Intensity Travel Efficiency Reduce VMT through changes in land use, travel behavior, prices Reduce congestion Improve operational efficiency Beyond CAFE standards [currently 35 mpg by 2020] Alternative fuels (biofuels, hydrogen, electricity) What can we do with the fleet?

28. 28 Forecast Characteristics of the Region’s Vehicle Fleet

29. 29 Fuel Efficiency Fuel Carbon Intensity Travel Efficiency Reduce VMT through changes in land use, travel behavior, prices Reduce congestion Improve operational efficiency Beyond CAFE standards [currently 35 mpg by 2020] Alternative fuels (biofuels, hydrogen, electricity) How do we use the fleet? (and how can this change)

30. 30 How We Use the Fleet, An Example

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32. 32 1. Effectiveness 2. Cost-effectiveness 3. Timeframe for Implementation Analyzing the WWIT Scenario 3 categories of analysis for each strategy

33. 33 Initial analysis of cost-effectiveness of Transportation Emissions Reduction Measures ($ per ton of CO 2 reduced) How can we begin to prioritize strategies? Cost-effectiveness Number Category Description CO 2 Cost Effectiveness Range * 1Telecommute Programs$10 to $40 2Signal Optimization$30 to $50 3Park & Ride Lots (Transit and HOV)$100 to $500 4Transit Service improvements$100 to $800

34. 34 1. Effectiveness 2. Cost-effectiveness 3. Timeframe for Implementation Analyzing the WWIT Scenario 3 categories of analysis for each strategy

35. 35 While all 3 example measures reduce 100 units of CO2 in 2020, the cumulative emissions reductions from 2011- 2020 differ based on the time required for implementation and realization of benefits. Example Reductions for Measures Early action is essential to meet the goals Timeframe for Implementation

36. 36 “Sliders” metaphor Different combinations of interventions can be assessed for cost-effectiveness and feasibility. Products

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