1. Supervisors: Dr. Theodoros Zachariadis Dr. Georgios Martinopoulos Dr. Theodoros Dergiades Marinos Kanellakis MSc in Energy Systems – October 2011 EU Energy Policy & Effects of Implemented Policies in Renewable Energy Penetration

2. 2 Presentation Outline 1. Policies & Their Role I. Why Do We Need Policies II. Policy Options & Their Role 2. EU Energy Policy I. Categories of EU’s Energy Policy II. Policies on Renewable Energy 3. RES Penetration Progress I. Significant Incidents II. RES Overall III. RES-E IV. RES-T V. RES-H 4. 2020 Projections I. Regression Models & Comparison II. 2020 Projections 5. Conclusions 2

3. 3 1. Policies & Their Role Sustainable Energy Development RE Use Barriers Policies 3 I. Why Do We Need Policies

4. 4 1. R&D 2. Financing 3. Financial Incentives 4. Voluntary Agreements 5. Regulations 6. Information & Training 7. Procurement 8. Market Reforms 9. Market Obligations 10. Capacity Building 11. Planning Techniques 12. Supporting Tools 4 1. Policies & Their Role II. Policy Options & Their Role

5. 5 1. Renewable Energy 2. Energy Efficiency & Savings 3. Internal Energy Markets 4. Security of Energy Supply 5. Environmental Protection 6. Nuclear Energy 7. Research & Development 8. External Relations 5 2. EU Energy Policy I. Categories of EU’s Energy Policies

6. 66 1. Renewable Energy 1. National Targets 2. National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs) 3. Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin (RE-GO) 4. Grid Priority Access & Operation 5. Cooperation Mechanisms 6. Restrictions on Biofuels & Bioliquids 7. Support Schemes 8. Integration of RES Technologies in Buildings 9. Information & Training 10. Reporting & Monitoring 11. Supporting Tools (e.g. RE-Shaping Project) 2. EU Energy Policy II. Policies on Renewable Energy

7. 77 3. RES Penetration Progress I. Important Milestones White Paper of 1997, "Energy for the Future - Renewable Energy Sources of Energy - White Paper for a Community Strategy and Action Plan". (12% share of RES in total final energy consumption by 2010) Directive 2001 "on the Promotion of the Electricity Produced from Renewable Energy" (2001/77/EC). (21% RES-E by 2010) Directive 2003 "on the promotion of biofuels or other renewable fuels for transport" (2003/30/EC). (5,75% RES-T by 2010 – Interim target 2% by 2005) Directive 2009 "on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources" (2009/28/EC). (Binding targets 20% RES-Overall – including 10% RES-T)

8. 8 3. RES Penetration Progress II. RES Overall 12% RES-Overall Target 2010 6,1% 2009

9. 9 3. RES Penetration Progress III. RES-E +21% RES-E, +35% E 2010 RES-E Targets: DE,HU (2008) / DK,IE,LT,PL,PT (2010) 21% RES-E Target 2010 16,7% 2008

10. 10 3. RES Penetration Progress IV. RES-T +240%+800% 2005 Interim Target: DE,SE 2010 Target: DE,SE,AT,SK (2008) / FR (2009) 5,75% RES-T Target 2010 3,24% 2009

11. 11 3. RES Penetration Progress V. RES-H It does count in the RES-Overall Target It is the dominant sector in RES contribution to final energy consumption Its growth has been the least rapid It is mentioned in the Directive 28/2009/EC In 2008 the RES-H was 11,9% ► Biomass – 56 Mtoe ► Solar Thermal – 1,1 Mtoe ► Geothermal – 0,7 Mtoe

12. 12 4. 2020 Projections I. Regression Specifications & Comparison Five different regression specifications were implemented: Autoregressive Polynomial Gompertz Multiple regression Logistic Comparison criteria: Adjusted R-squared Statistic Durbin-Watson Statistic Akaike and Schwarz Information Criteria Root Mean Squared & Mean Absolute Error Mean Absolute Percentage Error Theil Inequality Coefficient Logistic Regression Theoretical approach Empirical approach

13. 13 4. 2020 Projections II. 2020 Projections Growth rate assumption for: ► Energy balance ► Final energy consumption ► R&D as annual % of GDP ► Oil prices In 2020 RES-Overall: 11,51% In Percentage: +88,7% Forecasted values reflect the past policies’ effectiveness

14. 14 5. Conclusions EU is the leader on Energy Policy Implementation (EU-ETS) Indicative targets for 2010 were not achieved. More aggressive policies are implemented in the last years on: ► RE use ► Energy efficiency ► Liberalization of energy markets

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