1. APCA Farm Policy Confusion and Agriculture’s Euphoria Daryll E. Ray University of Tennessee Agricultural Policy Analysis Center Cotton Economics Research Institute 7 th Annual Research/Extension Symposium Lubbock, Texas April 11, 2007

2. APCA Lost Our Policy Bearings Without a clue and highly impressionable –When it comes to farm policy, we seem not to have a clear idea about anything including: what the “problem” is or what objectives are to be achieved –So we are willing to believe anything!

3. APCA We Seem Willing to Believe that: Staple crops are not sufficiently important to have emergency reserves (oil is sufficiently important) Less than full use of farm productive capacity is inefficient (SOP to not use full capacity in other sectors—currently at 77% of capacity) Farmers can extract billions of dollars for commodity programs—so they do Hence, commodity programs are a waste –do away with them or –pay out the money on some other basis

4. APCA What for, Farm Programs? To address self-correction problems Not to enrich agribusinesses Not to provide cheap feed to livestock integrators Not to dump commodities on international markets Not to crash commodity prices in developing countries Not to be a mark for entrepreneurs to pull government money through loopholes

5. APCA Ag Policy Did Not Start in 1932 Historic policy of plenty –Land distribution mechanisms – 1620 onward –Canals, railroads, farm to market roads –Land Grant Colleges – 1862, 1890, 1994 –Experiment Stations – 1887 –Cooperative Extension Service – 1914 –Federal Farm Credit Act – 1916 This policy of plenty often results in production outstripping demand

6. APCA Characteristics of Ag Sector Agriculture is different from other economic sectors. On the demand side: –With low food prices— People don’t eat more meals a day They may change mix of foods Aggregate intake remains relatively stable

7. APCA Characteristics of Ag Sector Agriculture is different from other economic sectors. On the supply side: –With low crop prices— Farmers continue to plant all their acres Farmers don’t and “can’t afford to” reduce their application of fertilizer and other major yield-determining inputs Who farms land may change Essential resource—land—remains in production in short- to medium-run

8. APCA Why Chronic Problems In Ag? Technology typically expands output faster than population and exports expand demand –Much of this technology has been paid for by US taxpayers The growth in supply now is being additionally fueled by –increased acreages in Brazil, etc. –technological advance worldwide

9. APCA Why Chronic Problems In Ag? Lower prices should automatically correct itself –Consumers buy more –Producers produce less –Prices recover—problem solved! But in agriculture lower prices do not solve the problem –Little self-correction on the demand side People do not consume significantly more food –Little self-correction on the supply side Farmers do not produce significantly less output

10. APCA What Was That Again? Supply and demand characteristics of aggregate agriculture cause chronic price and income problems –On average supply grows faster than demand (We will discuss ethanol later) –Agriculture cannot right itself when capsized by low prices –(Always year-to-year random variability)

11. APCA When Policy of Plenty is Too Much Given agriculture’s inability to quickly adjust to overproduction and low prices, there are 3 policy strategies: –Supply side –Demand side –Just pay money

12. APCA Short-term and Long-term Economic Setting For Ag. Commodity policy under “high” price expectations Demand euphoria but what about grain supply in the short-run and long-run? What is the greatest risk for agriculture in the short-run; in the long run Commodity policy implications

13. APCA Are High Prices the Future? The 2007 USDA Baseline projects: –Corn demand for ethanol 3.2 billion bushels for 2007—double 2005 (AFBF says 3.5) 3.7 billion bushes in 2008 (AFBF says 4.9) –Over 10 years, baseline prices range from $3.30 to $3.75 –Very low corn stock levels by historical standards

14. APCA Logical Implications Subsidies for program crops would: –Largely be replaced by market receipts –Cease to be a budgetary problem for the Federal Government Could even transition the direct (AMTA) payments like 1996 intentions –Cease to be a stumbling block in trade negotiations

15. APCA Short-Term Considerations US supply response –Arbitrage of crop acres in US to corn March Crop Intentions? 7 or 8 million additional acres, 10? 11? 12? –Means less soybeans, wheat, and cotton and more corn –Some land converted to cropland; more of such conversion in long-run

16. APCA Short-Term Considerations International supply response –Increased international production Mexican crop response: 4 million ac. Argentina, Brazil, Africa –All have indicated that $4.00 corn will alter planting response –Internationally there may be a decreased need for corn imports from the US. That is, US corn exports would decline

17. APCA Long-Term Considerations US supply response –Conversion of pasture and grassland— some in CRP?—to crop production –Investment in yield enhancing technology (300 bu./ac on best land?) –Conversion of land to cellulosic feedstocks, some of which will not be from current cropland

18. APCA Long-Term Considerations International supply response –Development and adoption of drought and saline resistant crops –Globalization of agribusiness: Near universal access to the new technologies world-wide Narrowing of technology and yield differentials between US and the rest of the world

19. APCA Long-Term Considerations International supply response –Long-run land potentially availability for major crops Savannah land in Brazil (250 mil. ac. -- USDA says 350) Savannah land in Venezuela, Guyana, and Peru (200 mil. ac.) Land in former Soviet Union (100 mil. ac.) Arid land in China’s west (100 mil. ac. GMO wheat) Savannah land in Sub-Saharan Africa (300 mil. ac. -- 10 percent of 3.1 bil. ac. of Savannah land) –Easy to underestimate supply growth

20. APCA Greatest Short-Term Risk Weather event –2007 US corn carry-out projected to be 5.3% of utilization (in 2005 it was 17.5%) –For full 10 year USDA baseline, the projected range is 4.5 and 5.7 Recent historic range has been 10% to 20% –In five of the last 10 years, we have seen production fall by 300 mil. bu. from the previous year –A shortfall of that magnitude in an era of tight supplies would trigger skyrocketing prices $6 or more per bushel

21. APCA 1995 (4.6%) Uncharted Territory Year ending commercial stocks-to-use ratio for US corn 1938-2005 (actual), 2006-2016 (2007 USDA Baseline) 1947 (4.9%)1983 (5.4%)2009 (4.5%)

22. APCA Greatest Short-Term Risk Weather event –2007 US corn carry-out projected to be 5.3% of utilization (in 2005 it was 17.5%) –For full 10 year USDA baseline, the projected range is 4.5 and 5.7 Recent historic range has been 10% to 20% –In five of the last 10 years, we have seen production fall by 300 mil. bu. from the previous year –A shortfall of that magnitude in an era of tight supplies would trigger skyrocketing prices $6 or more per bushel

23. APCA Short-Term Impact of $6 Corn Demanders –Outrage & economic pain by Livestock and ethanol producers Food processors and consumer groups –“Dependable supplier” issue returns Can the US really guarantee that export embargoes will never again be imposed? Suppliers – Switch more acres to corn US (road-ditch to road-ditch?) Brazil, Argentina, Mexico and elsewhere

24. APCA Greatest Long-Term Risk Acreage and yields greatly increase worldwide—just a question of how fast –With $6 per bushel corn Acreage shifts in the short-run Longer-run investments that increase acreage and yields –With $3 to $4 corn or somewhat lower Increases in acreage & yields but at slower rate Lower prices return –Recreate problems for farmers worldwide and for the US treasury

25. APCA On Knife’s Edge Short-term object lesson? –Need strategic reserves Like a properly managed Farmer-Owned-Reserve Reduce economic dislocation Long-term reality? –“New Era?” (fourth “New Era” in my lifetime) –Supply growth has always caught and then surpassed demand growth (and it does not take long ) This time, surge in productive capacity will be global Need a “Policy for All Seasons”

26. APCA Thank You

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