1. Waterfowl and Climate Change: Issues and Implications Sonja M. Smith

2. The Nature of the Problem Increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (CO 2 )…

3. The Nature of the Problem Rising global temperatures…

4. The Nature of the Problem Changing precipitation patterns…

5. The Nature of the Problem Rising sea levels, Mounting climactic variability, And, more (often) extreme climactic events…

6. The Nature of the Problem Anthropogenic land cover change further confounds the issue… Morenci Mine, Morenci, AZ Johannesburg, South Africa

7. Climate Change and Wetlands… Important breeding grounds Congregation sites throughout the year/migration Important winter habitat Biodiversity hotspots in arid regions Basque del Apache National Wildlife Refuge, NM

8. Waterfowl Provide important ecosystem goods, annually: – 12 million hunting days – 46 million birders Integral component of natural ecosystems Critical role in wildlife policy development – National Wildlife Refuge System

9. Waterfowl and Climate Change Coastal/Inland wetland habitat loss – Breeding grounds – Migration corridors (flyways) – Stopover sites Timing/distance travelled during migration Strong relationship between waterfowl & water conditions

10. The Migratory Flyways 1) Pacific 2) Central 3) Mississippi 4) Atlantic 1 2 3 4

11. Pacific Flyway Habitat loss from rising sea levels/encroaching development ↓ snow accumulation and earlier snowmelt = ↓ summer water – 10-30 days earlier – 11% decrease in snowpack – Cascades: 30-60% decline in snowmelt-derived water

12. Central Flyway Water regulation/diversion (dams) – Reduction in open channels/marshes – Sandhill Cranes, Whooping Cranes ↓ snowpack/higher temperatures – Limited water availability for humans/other species The Prairie Pothole Region

13. Mississippi Flyway Water/shoreline habitat loss in Great Lakes… – 19-39% decline in duck numbers Drop in water levels (up to 2.4’) – Decline in SAV Increasing contaminant levels Gulf Coast sea-level rise  45% coastal habitat loss Canvasbacks, Redheads, Lesser Scaup

14. Atlantic Flyway Sea-level rise (up to 15”) confounded by development Canvasback, American Black Duck, Northern Pintail, American Wigeon, Greater & Lesser Scaup, Ring-necked Duck, Green-winged Teal, Mottled Duck, Wood Duck, Fulvous Whistling Duck, Tundra Swan

15. Chesapeake Bay One of the top wintering waterfowl areas in N. America – >1 million waterfowl Exacerbation of pollution effects Decline in SAV – Degradation in water quality – Warming temperatures – Increasing human population Area already abandoned by Northern Pintail, Redhead, American Wigeon

16. North America’s duck factory Prairie Pothole Region Pacific Flyway Central Flyway Mississippi Flyway 10% breeding habitat Produces 50-80% N. America’s ducks >75% harvested ducks

17. Climate Projections

18. Palmer draught severity index (PDSI) – GCMs and sensitivity simulations to predict habitat conditions/project future duck numbers Correlation between: – pond numbers and PDSI – breeding duck numbers and PDSI 2020s: mild drought, PDSI = -1.41 – May pond numbers decline by 23% – Duck population decline by 26% Climate Change and the PPR

19. 2050s: moderate drought, PDSI = -2.59 – May Pond numbers decrease by 38% – Duck population decline by 46%

20. Northern forest/tundra (CAN and AK) 20% N. American breeding waterfowl Wintering habitat for 50% Pacific Flyway birds Arctic region is the fastest warming Loss of important tundra habitat Lesser Scaup, Surf Scoter, White-winged Scoter

21. Migration Species expected to skirt their ranges northwards and eastwards Shift in wintering areas – i.e., Lithuania Mallards Shortening migration routes Take-off/Arrival times noticeably earlier

22. Effects on waterfowl Decrease breeding frequency Reduce clutch sizes Shorten breeding season Decrease re-nesting frequency Decrease nest success Lower brood survival Lower recruitment + constant mortality = declining populations

23. Management Implications Climate change is detracting for many waterfowl species, but… Habitat loss/other related anthropogenic effects on the environment confound this! Repercussions of habitat loss and climate change may be mitigated by the distribution of remaining habitat …

24. Management Implications YOU as future managers: Predict areas important for waterfowl in the future Set aside larger areas, buffering zones YOU as citizens, hunters, bird-watchers…

25. Ducks Unlimited Grassroots, volunteer-based organization Conserves, restores, and manages wetlands and associated habitats for N. America’s waterfowl 792,638 members (as of 1 January 2008) 12,283,871 acres since 1937 $2.70 billion since 1937 http://www.ducks.org/conservation/

26. Ducks Unlimited

27. Acknowledgements Dr. Bill Mannan Geoffrey Palmer Clay Bowers

28. Questions?