1. Evaluating variation in abundance of Arctic cisco in the Colville River using existing scientific information and traditional knowledge 2006Marine Science Symposium 2006 Marine Science Symposium Stephen M. MurphyABR, Inc.—Environmental Research & Services Stephen R. Braund Stephen R. Braund & Associates Franz J. MueterSigma Plus, Statistical Consulting Services Lawrence L. MoultonMJM Research

3. BACKGROUND Arctic cisco (Qaaktaq) are an important subsistence resource for the residents of NuiqsutArctic cisco (Qaaktaq) are an important subsistence resource for the residents of Nuiqsut The subsistence fishery on the Colville delta starting experiencing a decline in harvest rates in 1998The subsistence fishery on the Colville delta starting experiencing a decline in harvest rates in 1998

5. BACKGROUND Arctic cisco (Qaaktaq) are an important subsistence resource for the residents of Nuiqsut The subsistence fishery on the Colville delta starting experiencing a decline in harvest rates in 1998 Because Arctic cisco potentially could be affected by offshore oil and gas development, MMS decided to investigate whether offshore development was affecting the fisheryBecause Arctic cisco potentially could be affected by offshore oil and gas development, MMS decided to investigate whether offshore development was affecting the fishery MMS convened a workshop on Arctic cisco in Nuiqsut in Nov. 2003 that included local experts and scientists. One conclusion of the workshop was that much could be gained from a multidisciplinary exploration of existing dataMMS convened a workshop on Arctic cisco in Nuiqsut in Nov. 2003 that included local experts and scientists. One conclusion of the workshop was that much could be gained from a multidisciplinary exploration of existing data This study was developed as a direct result of that workshopThis study was developed as a direct result of that workshop

7. STUDY APPROACH Collection, analysis, and synthesis of long-term data sets on Arctic cisco and regional data sets on weather, oceanographic conditions, and development activities that may be influencing key life history events that take place in the Beaufort Sea and Colville RiverCollection, analysis, and synthesis of long-term data sets on Arctic cisco and regional data sets on weather, oceanographic conditions, and development activities that may be influencing key life history events that take place in the Beaufort Sea and Colville River Engagement of a Panel of Local Experts from Nuiqsut to help guide the analytical work and interpretation of resultsEngagement of a Panel of Local Experts from Nuiqsut to help guide the analytical work and interpretation of results

8. LOCAL PANEL OF EXPERTS Nuiqsut residents nominated and chose a PanelNuiqsut residents nominated and chose a Panel Input from the Panel will be important for identifying data for use in the analyses and for deriving alternate hypothesesInput from the Panel will be important for identifying data for use in the analyses and for deriving alternate hypotheses Traditional knowledge will be used as more than just anecdotal information, but rather will form the basis for many of the analyses we will conductTraditional knowledge will be used as more than just anecdotal information, but rather will form the basis for many of the analyses we will conduct

10. Hypothesis Testing Panel of Local Experts Validating Interpretations Sensitivity Analysis Data Collection Synthesis, Conclusions, and Recommendations Data Exploration Interrelationships and Flow of Work Among Tasks

11. At Least Four Meetings of the Scientific Team and the Panel of Local Experts will be held in Nuiqsut to: ensure that the scientists are exposed to and understand local and traditional knowledge about Arctic ciscoensure that the scientists are exposed to and understand local and traditional knowledge about Arctic cisco to infuse the information from the local experts into the analytical process and, thereby, guide the direction and focus of the analyses and interpretations of resultsto infuse the information from the local experts into the analytical process and, thereby, guide the direction and focus of the analyses and interpretations of results gain consensus where possiblegain consensus where possible

12. Integration of Western Science & Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) Requires a conceptual understanding of both perspectivesRequires a conceptual understanding of both perspectives Requires an operational plan to:Requires an operational plan to: –facilitate communication –exchange ideas at appropriate technical level –work toward project objectives Need to truly integrate the Native communities input into scientific process to avoid having residents think their knowledge and views were insufficiently consideredNeed to truly integrate the Native communities input into scientific process to avoid having residents think their knowledge and views were insufficiently considered

13. Life History and Habitats of the Arctic Cisco Arctic cisco that occur in Alaska originate from the Mackenzie River system in Canada  Arctic cisco that occur in Alaska originate from the Mackenzie River system in Canada  Young-of-the-year Arctic cisco are transported via ocean currents westward to the Colville River  Recruitment strength has been correlated with easterly winds in the Beaufort Sea region  Colville River is the only drainage west of the Mackenzie that supports significant overwintering populations of subadult Arctic cisco

14. Beaufort Sea and Qaaqtaq life history Map Beaufort Gyre Undercurrent

15. Number of fish and wind speed } Recruitment anomaly 2001 Average wind speed (m/sec) Recruitment Index 0123 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 East windWest wind

16. Age-5 CPUE vs. recruitment R 2 = 0.70

17. Factors Potentially Impacting Arctic Cisco Identified by Scientists and/or Inupiat Experts Changes in Beaufort Sea circulation patternsChanges in Beaufort Sea circulation patterns CausewaysCauseways Construction of Undersea PipelinesConstruction of Undersea Pipelines Ice Bridges and Ice RoadsIce Bridges and Ice Roads Introduction of contaminants from drilling mudsIntroduction of contaminants from drilling muds Changes in river morphologyChanges in river morphology Recruitment at the Mackenzie RiverRecruitment at the Mackenzie River Cumulative effects of oil developmentCumulative effects of oil development Harvest by subsistence and commercial fisheriesHarvest by subsistence and commercial fisheries

18. Causeway-related concerns Do causeways impede migration and affect recruitment?Do causeways impede migration and affect recruitment? –Physical barrier –Change in local upwelling / salinity Are growth, condition, and/or survival of subadults adversely affected by changes in the quality or quantity of summer feeding habitat?Are growth, condition, and/or survival of subadults adversely affected by changes in the quality or quantity of summer feeding habitat?

19. Prudhoe Bay: Offshore structures and fyke net sampling sites Endicott Causeway From: Fechhelm et al. (2004) West Dock Causeway 2 m 5 km

20. Anomalies in number of fish Year Recruitment Index (anomaly) 1985199019952000 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 Endicott New breaches

21. Take Home Messages The Native community in Alaska is becoming increasing active as stakeholders in resource managementThe Native community in Alaska is becoming increasing active as stakeholders in resource management The scientific community needs to figure out how to effectively incorporate the knowledge, experience, and concerns of the Native community into their researchThe scientific community needs to figure out how to effectively incorporate the knowledge, experience, and concerns of the Native community into their research Establishing trusting relationships and methods for effective information transfer are criticalEstablishing trusting relationships and methods for effective information transfer are critical