1. Run-Timing Changes and Resilience in Auke Creek Salmon David Tallmon 1,2,3 & Ryan Kovach 2,4 1 Biology and Marine Biology Program (UAS) 2 Institute of Arctic Biology (UAF) 3 School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences (UAF) 4 Biology and Wildlife (UAF)

2. Salmon Value to Alaska Important Cultural & Regional Icon Important Cultural & Regional Icon Massive Ecological Value – marine nutrient & energy input, and bioturbation Massive Ecological Value – marine nutrient & energy input, and bioturbation Huge Economic Impact Huge Economic Impact > $3 billion commercial fishery (2000-09)

3. Important Subsistence Species (ADFG 1999)

4. How are salmon changing in response to climate change? Temperatures are increasing and will continue to increase. Temperatures are increasing and will continue to increase.

5. How are salmon changing in response to climate change? Temperatures are increasing and will continue to increase. Temperatures are increasing and will continue to increase. Is salmon run timing changing with warming?

6. How are salmon changing in response to climate change? Temperatures are increasing and will continue to increase. Temperatures are increasing and will continue to increase. Is salmon run timing changing with warming? What are the effects on salmon availability?

7. How are salmon changing in response to climate change? Temperatures are increasing and will continue to increase. Temperatures are increasing and will continue to increase. Is salmon run timing changing with warming? What are the effects on salmon availability? Is salmon abundance resilient to warming?

8. Auke Creek Site NOAA permanent weir NOAA permanent weir ~40 yrs detailed data ~40 yrs detailed data Sockeye, pink, coho runs Sockeye, pink, coho runs (Dollys & cuts, too) (Dollys & cuts, too) Outreachpic

9. Auke Creek is warming. Joyce (2011)

10. Is juvenile run timing changing?

11. Is juvenile run timing changing? Yes, it’s earlier. pinks sockeye coho Dollys Cuts later earlier

12. Is spawning run timing changing?

13. later earlier Is spawning run timing changing? Yes, it’s earlier.

14. Most runs are earlier (except sockeye adults). 19 days later earlier

15. What are the effects of changes in run timing on availability?

16. Adult salmon availability has decreased! Sockeye Pink (even & odd) Coho

17. Are salmon abundances resilient to changes? Yes, so far. λ = 1 is stable None significantly different from stable. pinksockeyecoho

18. What does the best dataset in Alaska say about salmon response to climate change?

19. Is salmon run timing changing with warming? Yes – most juveniles and adults emigrating and immigrating earlier.

20. What does the best dataset in Alaska say about salmon response to climate change? Is salmon run timing changing with warming? Yes – most juveniles and adults emigrating and immigrating earlier. What are the effects on salmon availability? Smaller window in which ecosystem service available for harvest.

21. What does the best dataset in Alaska say about salmon response to climate change? Is salmon run timing changing with warming? Yes – most juveniles and adults emigrating and immigrating earlier. What are the effects on salmon availability? Smaller window in which ecosystem service available for harvest. Is salmon abundance resilient to warming? Yes. So far all salmon spp. have stable abundances.

22. Unknowns. How widespread is earlier emigration and immigration? How widespread is earlier emigration and immigration? Is availability decreasing throughout SE Alaska? Is availability decreasing throughout SE Alaska? What other factors influence salmon availability? What other factors influence salmon availability?

23. Current efforts. Examining “run timing” genes in pink salmon…are they evolving or adjusting? Examining “run timing” genes in pink salmon…are they evolving or adjusting? Examining abiotic and biotic factors that best explain pink and coho run timing  beyond stream temperature. Examining abiotic and biotic factors that best explain pink and coho run timing  beyond stream temperature. Examine regional patterns in salmon run timing and abundance  regional database. Examine regional patterns in salmon run timing and abundance  regional database. Examine archaeological data for historic Alaska Native weirs in Southeast Alaska  regional database. Examine archaeological data for historic Alaska Native weirs in Southeast Alaska  regional database.

24. Acknowledgements EPSCoR EPSCoR NOAA – John Joyce, Jesse Echave, Gerry Taylor NOAA – John Joyce, Jesse Echave, Gerry Taylor UAF - Mark Lindberg, Milo Adkinson, Tony Gharrett UAF - Mark Lindberg, Milo Adkinson, Tony Gharrett ADFG Sustainable Salmon Fund (Project # 45965) ADFG Sustainable Salmon Fund (Project # 45965) North Pacific Research Board (Project # 1110) North Pacific Research Board (Project # 1110)

25. Lots of variation in phenotypic variance trends. pinks sockeye coho