1. Presented by Binaya Pasakhala Assessing Vulnerability of People’s Livelihood in Far-western Nepal: Implications on Adaptation to Climate Change

2. Introduction  The earth’s global temperature has increased by about 0.8 °C in a period of 150 years.  Increase in sea level rise, altitudinal shift of vegetation, retreat of glaciers and rise in extreme climatic conditions.  Impacts of climate change will be severe upon developing countries and poor people.

3. Impact of climate change in Nepal R ise in Temperature (In Nepal, temperature rise of about 0.06ºC recorded between 1977-94 ) MM elting of Glaciers FF loods DD rought FF ire Introduction

4. Problem Statement Need for Adaptation Decline in agricultural production Damages and losses of infrastructure and property Loss of lives

5. General objective : To assess vulnerability of people’s livelihood in Far-western, Nepal. Specific objectives To document trend of change of temperature and precipitation To assess livelihood assets of local people To examine factors contributing to vulnerability of households to climate variability and change To examine existing measures adopted for coping with climate variability and change Objectives

6. Result Interpretation Literature Review Research Design Problem Statement Objective 2 Primary data: Household questionnaire survey, Key Informant Survey Frequency, Percentage, t-tests, Weighted Average Index Objective 1 Secondary data from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology Trend Analysis Objective 3 Primary data: Household questionnaire survey, Key Informant Survey, Group Discussion Frequency, Percentage, AHP, Correlation and Multiple regression Objective 4 Primary data: Household questionnaire survey, Key Informant Survey, Group discussion Frequency and Percentage Conclusion and Recommendation Data Collection Study area Selection Sample Design Research Methodology

7. Situated in Plain area Flood affected in 2007, 2008, 2009 Sample Size: 98 Situated in Siwalik hill Drought affected in 2008 Sample Size: 87 District in Far- western region of Nepal Area- 3235 sq km. Climate- Tropical in Plains and sub- tropical in Siwalik range Study Area

8. Flood Affected Areas Pawera Basauti

9. Drought Affected Area Godavari

10. Trend of Change in Temperature Number of cool nights decreased by 10 nights during 1977 and 2008, which was statistically significant.

11. Trend of Change in Rainfall Number of consecutive dry days increased by 60 days during 1977 and 2008, which was statistically significant.

12. Trend of Change in Rainfall

13. Monthly distribution of rainfall in decades Trend of Change in Rainfall

14. Perception on change in temperature Perception on change in amount of rainfall Perception on Trend of Climate Deforestation was perceived as major reason for increasing temperature and change in rainfall pattern

15. Possession of livelihood assets was statistically different between two areas Access to road, market and linkages with external agencies were better in flood affected area than in drought affected area Agriculture was major on-farm occupation and labor was major off-farm occupation of households in both study areas Failure of crops have caused shift in livelihood strategy (i.e. from agriculture to labor) Livelihood Assessment

16. Flood affected area Drought affected area P= Physical capital, S= Social capital, F= Financial capital, H= Human capital and N= Natural capital Livelihood Assessment No statistical significant difference between group of respondents (on basis of ethnicity and caste) in both areas.

17. Vulnerability Assessment

18. Vulnerability = (adaptive capacity) – (sensitivity + exposure) (Deressa et al., 2008) Vulnerability Assessment

19. Percentage of households into 3 vulnerable groups Vulnerability Assessment LowMediumHigh Vulnerability Score Range 1 0.05 -0.09 -1

20. Flood affected areaDrought affected area Percentage of respondents’ group into 3 vulnerable groups Vulnerability Assessment

21.  Distance from river and annual income was identified as major factors affecting vulnerability of households in flood affected area  Prior experience of climatic hazard and annual income were identified as major factor affecting vulnerability of households in drought affected area Factors affecting Vulnerability of households

22. Autonomous Adaptation Measures Water pumps and natural springs Change in cropping calendar Raising house storey and foundation Raised silos, steel silos Adoption of improved crop varieties Out migration Change in climate was not singular reason for adoption of improved crop varieties.

23. Adaptation Measures Early warning system Evacuation shelter houses Raised water hand pumps River training River bed cultivation Planned adaptation measures: supported by external agencies in flood affected area Barriers to adaptation:  Lack of governmental and external agencies support  Lack of resources,  Lack of technical knowledge,  Lack of awareness.

24.  Non-significant increasing trend of temperature and significant increase in dry days and decline in winter rain during 1997-2007.  Vulnerability of households to climate change is higher in drought affected area (Siwalik hills) than in flood affected area (plains).  Vulnerability between groups of respondent were insignificant.  Distance from river was major factor influencing vulnerability of households to climate variability and change in flood affected area.  Similarly, prior experience of climatic disaster was major factor influencing vulnerability of households to climate variability and change in drought affected area.  Communities have adopted adaptation measures in response to climatic hazards. Adaptation measures insulate households from negative impacts of climate hazards. Conclusions

25.  Empowerment and awareness raising of local people  Construction of reservoirs and irrigation facility, river training activities, installing early warning system  Introducing microfinance schemes  Inclusion of institutional arrangements and policies for vulnerability assessment Recommendations Government and NGOs Researchers Households  Adoption of drought hardy and flood hardy crop varieties  Diversifying livelihood strategies