1. Contemporary Tourism Tourism in the Twenty First Century

2. Lecture Objectives Be able to appreciate some of the key factors influencing tourism in this century Understand why the condition of the physical environment is directly and indirectly significant for the future of tourism Understand the potential significance of climate change for tourism environments and destinations Be able to identify some of the difficulties associated with predicting tourist flows and patterns Understand the implications for tourism of the end of easily accessible oil supplies Be able to appreciate the role that aviation plays with respect to both climate change and energy supply issues in tourism Appreciate the value of scenarios as a decision-making tool

3. An Uncertain World The future is unknown Prediction is difficult due to: Wild card events Shifting business environment All elements impact upon the production and consumption of tourism

4. Paradox Growth in international tourism set against global environmental change Paradox Forecasts versus concerns –Political instability –Energy –Global environmental change

5. Climate Change Issues for –Reef tourism –Coastal tourism –Winter tourism Responding to change –Greenhouse Gasses –Aviation sector

6. Predicting Change Causality difficult to determine Predicting tourist behaviour?

7. What Future for Tourism? People make their own history People make their own future Future of tourism determined largely by factors external to the sector Scenarios for the future