1. Seasonal Airmass Transport to the US Prepared by: Rudolf B. Husar and Bret Schichtel CAPITACAPITA,Washington University, Saint Louis, Missouri 63130 Submitted to: Angela Bandemehr May 5, 2000, Draft Big Bend, TX July Big Bend, TX January

2. Contents Introduction Transport Climatology of North America Back-Trajectory Calculations to the U.S. –Methodology –Seasonal back-trajectories to 15 receptors Transcontinental Transport Events: Dust and Smoke Summary

3. Introduction Anthropogenic and natural pollutants generated in one country are transported regularly to other countries, adding to their air quality burden. On average, the intercontinental transport of pollutants represents small additions to US pollution burdens, but under favorable emission and transport conditions it may elevate pollutant levels for brief periods. Goal of Work: To illustrate the paths air masses take during transport to the United States The current approach relies on the calculation of backward airmass histories from 15 receptor points in the US, located mostly at the boundaries. The transport analyses was conducted over the entire calendar year 1999, aggregated monthly to illustrate the seasonal pattern of transport to each location This work is a spatial and temporal extension of the previous airmass history analysis for Spring 1998.previous airmass history analysis

4. Transport Climatology of North America To be completed

5. Features of Air Flow over North America Major pathways of air masses affecting North America

6. Seasonal Air Flow over North America NAVAIR, 1966 January OctoberJuly April

7. Back-Trajectory Calculations to the U.S.

8. Methodology – Airmass Histories An airmass history is an estimate of the 3-D transport pathway (trajectory) of an airmass prior to arriving at a specific receptor location and arrival time. Meteorological state variables, e.g. temperature and humidity, are saved along the airmass trajectory. Multiple particles are used to simulate each airmass. Horizontal and vertical mixing is included; particles arriving at the same time to follow different trajectories. Back trajectories incorporate the transport direction, speed over source regions and dilution The history of an airmass arriving at Big Bend on 8/23/99

9. FNL Meteorological Data Archive The FNL data is a product of the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS), which uses the Global spectral Medium Range Forecast model (MRF) to assimilate multiple sources of measured data and forecast meteorology. 129 x 129 Polar Stereographic Grid with ~ 190 km resolution. 12 vertical layers on constant pressure surfaces from 1000 to 50 mbar 6 hour time increment Upper Air Data: 3-D winds, Temp, RH Surface Data includes: pressure, 10 meter winds, 2 meter Temp & RH, Momentum and heat flux Data is available from 1/97 to present.

10. Methodology: Airmass History Analysis For details see: Springtime Airmass Transport Pathways to the USSpringtime Airmass Transport Pathways to the US Backtrajectories are aggregated by counting the hours each ‘particle’ resided in a grid cell. Airmass history (Backtrajectory) Analysis

11. Methodology –Residence Time Probability Field The probable airmass pathways to the Seattle, WA receptor site The grid level residence times hours are divided by the total time the airmasses reside over the entire domain and the area of the grid cell. The resulting probability density function identifies the probability of an airmass traversing a given area prior to impacting the receptor. The residence time probability fields are displayed as isopleth plots where the boundary of each shaded region is along a line of constant probability. The red shaded areas have the highest probability of airmass traversal and the light blue areas have the smallest probability. The most probable pathways of airmass transport to the receptor are along the “ridges” of the isopleth plot.

12. Residence Time Analysis: A 2 Dimensional Approach Seattle, WA Particle Height Distribution The residence time analysis does not account for the height of the airmass, nor does it account for removal processes. Air masses travelling above the planetary boundary layer cannot accumulate surface level emissions in source regions; likewise, they cannot affect receptor sites. Back trajectories tend to increase in height with increasing age

13. Airmass History Database 15 receptor sites were placed primarily along the United States border Ten day airmass histories were calculated every two hours during all of 1999. 25 particles were used to simulate each airmass trajectory Temperature, Relative Humidity, and Precipitation rate, were also saved out along each trajectory. Airmass histories were calculated using the CAPITA Monte Carlo Model driven by the FNL global meteorological data.CAPITA Monte Carlo Model FNL global meteorological data This system was previously validated for hemispheric transport by simulating the April 1998 Chinese Dust Event. April 1998 Chinese Dust Event

14. 1. Aleutian Islands, AK July April October January The Aleutian Islands are affected by air masses coming from all directions throughout the year. However, air masses affecting the Aleutian Islands appear to come preferentially from the west.

15. 1. Aleutian Islands, AK July April October January The Aleutian Islands are affected by air masses coming from all directions throughout the year. However, air masses affecting the Aleutian Islands appear to come preferentially from the west.

16. 2. Point Barrow, AK July April October January Pt. Barrow is affected strongly by air masses passing over the Arctic Ocean throughout the year. Transport of air masses from the southwest occurs- except during winter.

17. 2. Point Barrow, AK July April October January Pt. Barrow is affected strongly by air masses passing over the Arctic Ocean throughout the year. Transport of air masses from the southwest occurs- except during winter.

18. 5. Seattle, WA July April October January Seattle, WA is affected by air masses coming mainly from the west throughout the year.

19. 6. San Francisco, CA July April October January San Francisco, CA is affected by air masses coming mainly from the west throughout the year.

20. 9. San Diego, CA July April October January San Diego is affected by air masses coming mainly from the Northwest throughout the year.

21. 10. Big Bend, TX July April October January There are large seasonal differences in the directions that air masses arriving in Big Bend, TX have taken. During winter and into spring, they come from the west and the northwest,while during the summer, they come mainly from the east.

22. 11. N. Minnesota, MN July April October January Northern Minnesota is affected mainly by air masses coming from the north and the northwest throughout the year. During the summer, transport from the west and the south also occurs. This site is close enough to Lake Superior so that their transport pathways are expected to be similar.

23. 12. St. Louis, MO July April October January St. Louis, MO is affected by air masses coming from the north and northwest throughout the year. However, this pattern shifts so that St. Louis is more strongly affected by air coming from the south during the warmer months.

24. 13: Everglades, FL July April October January Southern Florida is affected by air masses coming from the northwest during the cooler months of the year. In contrast to the northern United States, southern Florida is strongly affected by air masses coming from the east, especially during summer. These air masses transport dust from North Africa to the southern United States.

25. 14: Rochester, NY July April October January Rochester, NY is affected by air masses coming from the north and northwest throughout the year. Transport from the south becomes more important during the summer. Rochester is close enough to Lake Erie, so that their transport patterns are expected to be relatively similar.

26. 15: Burlington, VT July April October January Burlington, VT is affected by air masses coming from the north and the northwest in all seasons of the year. During the summer, transport from the south increases in importance.

27. Intercontinental Transport Events: Dust Satellites have found convincing evidence for the transport of dust between continents. Dust from the Gobi and Taklamakan Deserts in Asia and from North Africa is transported to North America.

28. The Asian Dust Event of April 1998 On April 19, 1998 a major dust storm occurred over the Gobi Desert The dust cloud was seen by SeaWiFS, TOMS, GMS, AVHRR satellites The transport of the dust cloud was followed on-line by an an ad-hoc international group China Mongolia Korea

29. Trans-Pacific Dust Transport It took about 4 days for the dust cloud to traverse the Pacific Ocean, at an altitude of about 4 km As the dust approached N. America, it subsided to the ground

30. Asian Dust Cloud over N. America On April 27, the dust cloud arrived in North America. Regional average PM10 concentrations increased to 65  g/m 3 In Washington State, PM10 concentrations briefly exceeded 100  g/m 3 Reg. Avg. PM10 100  g/m 3 Hourly PM10

31. Smoke from Central American Fires May 14, 98

32. SeaWiFS, TOMS, Bext May 15, 1998 May 15, 98 DMSP – Night Light Smoke from Central American Fires

33. Smoke Aerosol and Ozone – Inverse Relationship Surface ozone is generally depressed under the smoke cloud Extinction Coefficient (visibility) Surface Ozone

34. Summary of Global Air Pollution and Transport The global sulfur emissions have shifted from N. America and Europe to East Asia. The industrial ‘belt’, 30-60 deg N, is dominated by anthropogenic SO x, NO x and O 3. This conforms to the conventional wisdom since the 1970s. Recent satellite data show that NO x, HC and aerosols are dominated by biomass burning in the subtropics and the southern hemisphere. ?? The radiatively active global aerosol is dominated by smoke and dust, rather then by industrial sulfates as we have presumed. Episodic trans-continental transport of dust and smoke (ozone?) can now be detected and modeled routinely. Such extra-jurisdictional ‘pollution’ events cause significant episodic impact on the air quality of N. America.

35. Source Impact of Pollution and Dust/Smoke Events Example Concentration/Dosage Calculation The impact of the emission from source i, E i, on the concentration at receptor j, C j, is determined by the transmission probability, T ij : C j = T ij E i The dosage is the integral of the concentration over the time length, L i, D j = L i C j Pollution Emission Rate:E i = 1 Transmission:T ij = 1 Emission Length:L i = 1 C j = 1 x 1 = 1 D j = 1 x 1 x 1 = 1 Dust or Smoke Event: Emission Rate:E i = 100 Transmission:T ij = 1 Emission Length:L i = 0.01 C j = 100 x 1 = 100 D j = 100 x 1 x 0.01 = 1 Two key measures of source impacts are on the concentration and dosage at the receptor Both depend on the source strength as well as the atmospheric transmission probability Long-term, average pollution emission rates are relatively low (say E=1) compared to dust/smoke events (E = 100) but they are continuous (L= 1), whereas emissions causing the dust/smoke events are intermittent (L=0.01) Dust/smoke events produce high short-term concentration peaks at the receptor that are easily detectable. Over longer periods, the effects of long-range transport of pollutants are difficult to detect because the receptor concentrations are low. However, the long-term dosage from the two types of sources may be similar. Rudy, are you familiar with potential source contribution functions?

36. Summary (tentative) Air masses reaching the boundaries of the United States arrive from different directions However, each receptor location has a climatologically well defined seasonal pattern of air mass history Alaska is affected by air masses coming mainly from the west Northern California, Oregon and Washington are affected mainly by air masses coming from the west throughout the year. Air masses arriving at the above locations have the highest probability of passing over Asia during the ten days prior to arrival. Southern California is affected by air masses coming from the west northwest. The central United States is affected by air masses coming mainly from the northwest during the cool months and from the south during the summer. The southeastern United States is affected by air masses coming from the north in the cold season and from the southeast during the warm season. The northeastern United States is affected by air masses coming from the Arctic, the Pacific Ocean and the Tropics The above transport patterns are consistent with the known climatological regimes of N America

37. Hemispheric option – full context? Half-hemispheric option-better proportions? What do you think? Note: there is a bit of a gap at the dateline- problem with the splicing. Also, the fine features of the transport pattern an not too meaningful - applicable only to 1999 - vertically integrated, not surface transport

38. Polar Stereographic Projection Joe, this projection always confuses me… It is a nice projection for meteorologists but for policy types? R Rudy, I think this projection will work better for Pt. Barrow and maybe also for other seasons in the Aleutians.